Euro 2020 final: Who to back between Italy and England at Wembley
Ahead of the Euro 2020 final between Italy and England, we use the Infogol model to see who is most likely to win the trophy.
Italy v England
- Sunday, 20:00 BST - BBC One and ITV1
- Wembley Stadium - London, England
ITALY: Three years after watching the 2018 World Cup from their homes, Italy have made it to the Euro 2020 final following a penalty shoot-out victory over Spain.
The job Roberto Mancini has done cannot be understated, as he has turned a disappointing giant on the decline into one of the most feared sides in Europe.
They have been excellent on the whole throughout the tournament averaging 2.01 xGF and 0.99 xGA per game in their run to the final, but they were fortunate to come through their semi-final against Spain.
Italy were second best to the Spaniards on the eye-test and on the xG battle (xG: ITA 0.78 - 1.74 ESP), conceding two big chances (0.35 xG+) while creating none, and that was the first time at Euro 2020 that they had lost the xG battle.
ENGLAND: The long wait is over - England are in their first major final since World Cup success in 1966.
The good news for England supporters is that the Infogol model calculates a 53.8% chance of football coming home on Sunday, with the Three Lions favoured to lift the trophy in front of home fans.
They were forced to extra-time by Denmark but looked the more likely to win the game throughout - the xG scoreline finishing 3.23 to 0.30 in their favour.
That game was also the first time they've conceded this tournament. Gareth Southgate's side have developed into a strong defensive unit and that Danish goal came from a wonder free-kick.
England have averaged 2.24 xG per match in the knockout stages - that coming after 4.3 xG in the group stages - they will fancy their chances of testing the Italian defence.
