Brentford and Liverpool head into the new year in good form and start 2023 by meeting in west London. Joe Townsend previews the game and picks out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Both teams to score at 8/11 (William Hill)
1pt Draw at 15/4 (Spreadex)
With their Premier League campaign teetering on the edge of disaster, four straight wins either side of the World Cup has rekindled Liverpool's top-four hopes.
Throw in the signing of Netherlands star Cody Gakpo and there is certainly a growing sense of optimism at Anfield as we enter 2023.
Gakpo strengthens the Reds' attacking options following the double injury blow to Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota, but he will not solve their biggest issue: defence.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Brentford 19/4 | Draw 18/5 | Liverpool 1/2
Jurgen Klopp's side have allowed 1.64 expected goals against (xGA) per league game this season, an average that puts them in the bottom half of the table on that metric.
Even during this winning run they have consistently given up chances, failing to keep a clean sheet and quite remarkably averaging exactly 1.64 xGA.
Their inability to keep their opponents out has seen the Reds become a go-to selection for BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE backers this term, with 69% of Liverpool matches seeing goals for both sides, nudging up to 71% when playing away from home.
Brentford are another BTTS regular (59%) and given their strong home record and impressive recent form the 8/11 on offer should be backed.
The Bees are unbeaten in five league matches, have lost only once in their last eight and have only been beaten on one occasion at their own ground.
They stunned Manchester City at the Etihad on the final weekend of league action before the World Cup and have since shown that was no fluke.
Thomas Frank's men were equally as impressive on Boxing Day, dominating Spurs to lead 2-0 (xG: BRE 2.36-1.05 TOT) before being pegged back to draw 2-2.
West Ham then had no answer on Friday as the Bees left the London Stadium as comfortable 2-0 winners.
An issue turning draws into wins is all that has prevented Brentford from being much higher in the table this season, with no team in the top flight drawing more than their eight matches.
THE DRAW was priced at 13/5 against Tottenham and given their tendency to share the points, the 15/4 about Brentford holding Liverpool looks too generous.
Frank's side have played all five of the other 'big six' teams so far this season, with an impressive record of W2 D2 L1.
The draw specialists could make things difficult for a resurgent Liverpool on Monday.
Brentford v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Both teams to score at 8/11 (William Hill)
- 1pt Draw at 15/4 (Spreadex)
Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (31/12/22)
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