Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s quarter-finals at Wimbledon, including Briton Arthur Fery v Flavio Cobolli.
Today's Wimbledon tips: Wednesday July 8
1pt 5+ aces in first set of Flavio Cobolli v Arthur Fery at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1.25pts Taylor Fritz to beat Alex Zverev at 10/11 (General)
Flavio Cobolli v Arthur Fery (2nd on Centre Court)
I was pretty confident that Grigor Dimitrov would end Arthur Fery’s run the other day and when he broke to go 4-3 up in the fourth set, the job looked virtually done.
However, instead of holding serve twice to land our handicap bet, he lost it twice in a row and was duly beaten in the decider.
I’d make Fery more likely to beat Cobolli than Dimitrov, but the bookies don’t – the Briton is a bigger price for this match at a best of 5/2.
Cobolli does not have the longevity on grass like Dimitrov but, to be fair, his record in SW19 is pretty strong. He’s into the last eight for the second year running and is now 9-2 in the main draw at the All England Club.
As predicted on these pages, the Italian’s power proved too much for Alex de Minaur on Monday and it will likely be too strong for Fery here.
However, I won’t be making the same mistake again, especially given the prices.
Instead, I think a venture into the aces market might be worthwhile.
These two met for the one and only time at this year’s Australian Open, Fery landing the upset.
However, Cobolli was clearly unwell that day, rushing off court to go to the toilet at one stage, so I’m not reading too much into the result.
There is, however, an interesting take from the data.
Despite being ill, Cobolli out-aced his opponent, while there were seven aces in the opening set.
I’d suggest the grass means a slightly lower reaction time as the ball skids through that bit more which should increase the chance of aces and while there’s no element of surprise this time given they’ve already met, I do feel the 6/4 on offer about there being at least five aces in the first set looks big.
This is something which has already landed in two of Cobolli’s four matches at this tournament and his underrated delivery may well sweep up the majority of aces needed to land this bet.
You can also get 5/1 about there being a repeat of that seven-ace opening set in Melbourne but I’ll go for the lower number which still looks a spot of value.
Taylor Fritz v Alex Zverev (2nd on Court 1)
When I backed Fritz to win Wimbledon (each way) in my outright preview, this was the match I was worried about the most.
I was pretty close to giving Zverev my vote, intrigued by how he would play here now the shackles of being ‘Slamless Alex’ were removed at the recent French Open.
However, he was a considerably shorter price than Fritz and, given we now have a 50-50 match, my original assessment appears to have been justified, at least to some extent.
The layers clearly expect a tight contest with little between them – the most recent of 15 previous meetings went to 7-5 in the third on the grasscourts of Halle just a few weeks ago. A total games line of 44.5 suggests this one could go all the way to a fifth set.
While I can see that happening, I don’t think there’s any value in going over that mark (I would rarely ever take that bet in any match) and in fact I’ve struggled to find much at all in the sub-markets.
So, I’m going to keep things simple and back Fritz.
After that Halle success, he’s now won the last seven against Zverev which is quite a run. He’s also won the last three on this surface, including one here in SW19 two years ago.
Overall, the American is up 10-5 and 3-2 on grass.
As I pointed out in that outright preview, he’s the player with grasscourt pedigree. While I can see there being some doubts remaining in Zverev’s mind – this will be his first Wimbledon quarter-final at the age of 29 – I don’t think that will be the case with Fritz, especially given how he’s held the Indian sign over this opponent for two years now.
If you are on Fritz outright, there’s no real need to get involved but if pushed to predict this one, I have to side with the American
Posted 17:45 BST on 07/07/2026
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