Wimbledon tennis tips: Preview and best bets for the women's final on Saturday 11

Today's Wimbledon tips: Saturday July 11

1pt Karolina Muchova to beat Linda Noskova at 5/6 (General)

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Karolina Muchova v Linda Noskova (1600 BST)

The open nature of the Wimbledon ladies’ singles has stuck again.

Those at the top of the pre-tournament market have all fallen by the wayside, ensuring another surprise champion will be crowned on Saturday.

Unlike their Czech compatriots Marketa Vondrousova and Barbora Krejcikova, neither was sent off at a triple-figure price but the winner will still count as an upset as this tournament prepares to celebrate a 10th different winner in the last 10 years.

A shock would probably be going too far. Both won grasscourt titles in the lead up to Wimbledon so 25/1 quotes about both on day one were fair.

Both have impressed, losing only two sets en route to this stage, although both have also come within a point of going out of the tournament – Noskova saving match point against Sorana Cirstea in round three, while Muchova is probably still wondering how Coco Gauff missed a simple forehand at 9-8 in the final-set tie-break in Thursday’s semi-final. I know I am.

We are now guaranteed a third woman to win this title having faced a match point in the tournament and I think it’s most likely to be Muchova.

I’d say her route through the past week has been the tougher – she’s taken down three former Grand Slam champions in Krejcikova, an in-form Naomi Osaka and Gauff.

I also give weight to the fact she’s played in a Grand Slam final before. While she lost the 2023 French Open, she put up a great fight against the best claycourter of her generation, Iga Swiatek. There will be no baggage left from that loss.

Noskova, however, must handle what will be a new occasion for her and I’ve seen a lot of players struggle to deal with that over the years, Amanda Anisimova being the prime example here last year when she didn’t win a single game.

The younger Czech will aim to dictate behind her serve – she admitted as much following her semi-final win.

"I have been working on my serve for a couple of years now,” Noskova said.

“It has been a great help for me lately. Obviously on grasscourt or hardcourts, you can use your serve as the most powerful tool.

"I always try to just focus on myself when I have my service game. Whatever happens on the return games happens. It's not really in my power all the time. But my serve is what I focus the most on."

Despite this, it is Muchova who has held serve more often at this tournament – 90% of the time to Noskova’s 86%.

She’s also won a higher percentage of points on both first and second serve.

At this point, it’s also worth bringing up the pair’s only previous meeting.

That came at last year’s US Open when Muchova won in three sets but she was clearly the better player, as shown in the data.

She won 73% of points on her first serve (to Noskova’s 61%), while the second-serve points won figures were 57%-42%.

That combination allowed Noskova only two break points in the match; Muchova created 18 such opportunities.

In short, the Noskova serve should hold no fear for Muchova, whose greater variety can help her to victory here.

She was excellent in that final set against Gauff, showing her full array of shots, including great touch towards the net.

The one worry was the way she was holding her side towards the end of the contest, although she’s since explained that was due to a stitch, not a muscle strain.

"I didn't have anything with my ab,” she said. “I just couldn't catch my breath. I was just trying to massage it a little bit to get it away."

I’ll take Muchova at her word and back her.

I thought she’d be shorter than she is and so I see value in her price of the generally-available 5/6. You may get slightly more with some of the smaller firms.

I often find something in the sub-markets for these big matches but, sadly, I’ve struggled to do so on this occasion, so let’s just stick with the main pick and that’s a win for the more experienced player.

Posted 17:10 BST on 10/07/2026

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