Following two odds-against winners from two bets on Saturday, tennis man Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s last-16 matches at Wimbledon.
Today's Wimbledon tips: Sunday July 5
1.5pts over 39.5 games in Hubert Hurkacz v Jan-Lennard Struff at 4/5 (General)
1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Felix Auger-Aliassime v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 13/5 (BetMGM, VirginBet)
Hubert Hurkacz v Jan-Lennard Struff
The last 16 begins on Sunday at Wimbledon and there are some cracking-looking matches in the ladies' singles draw, all of which are priced up as competitive contests.
However, from a punting perspective it’s a case of focusing on my bread and butter and that’s the men’s game and this match should be a close-fought affair.
I mentioned Struff’s potential against Daniil Medvedev the other day and while I didn’t necessarily think he’d land the upset, he certainly justified the comments.
The German emerged a straight-sets winner from that one and I doubt he’ll be cowed by facing Hurkacz, who looks short enough to me at around 2/7.
Both men enjoy plenty of success on serve on this surface with Struff having already delivered 76 aces and Hurkacz a none-too-shabby 51.
The last time these two played, there were no breaks of serve, 41 aces and three tie-breaks in Dubai a couple of years ago. At this point, it’s also worth mentioning the pair’s only grasscourt meeting, won by Struff in three sets in Stuttgart in 2023. That match featured 32 aces.
I expect service breaks will be at a premium again here and tie-breaks could well follow.
That pushes me towards over 39.5 games as I can certainly see Struff claiming a set here. If he does, I’d expect this to land.
I also wouldn’t put anyone off pulling the trigger on a Struff upset victory which is certainly tempting at a chunky 11/4.
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Tie-breaks also look likely in this last-16 tie which features two players who have looked in good shape in the first week.
Neither has lost a set en route to this stage with both very strong on their own serve.
FAA is yet to lose his own delivery, while ADF has gone through the last two rounds unbroken.
With that shot in good working order, breakers could well follow.
That’s been the case in previous meetings.
Of the 14 sets these two have played at tour level, eight have gone the distance.
Given such stats, it’s perhaps not too surprising to see over 1.5 tie-breaks at just 13/8.
I’ll take the bigger price available concerning a first-set tie-break.
Two of those previous four matches have featured one of those, while Auger-Aliassime has played an opening-set breaker in the last two rounds here.
13/5 looks a fair price.
Posted 16:25 BST on 04/07/2026
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