Our in-form tennis man Andy Schooler previews Monday’s last-16 action at Wimbledon 2026.
Today's Wimbledon tips: Monday July 6
1.5pts Grigor Dimitrov (-3.5) to beat Arthur Fery on the game handicap at 10/11 (BOYLE Sports)
1pt Flavio Cobolli to beat Alex de Minaur at 3/1 (General)
0.5pt Taylor Fritz to beat Alexander Bublik 3-0 at 11/4 (bet365)
Alex de Minaur v Flavio Cobolli
Cobolli landed this column a winner in the last round when defeating Karen Khachanov.
He was only a 13/10 shot on Saturday but now he’s out at 3/1 which just looks too big to me.
I pointed out the other day how Khachanov had never beaten a top-20 player at Wimbledon and the same applies here with De Minaur’s best win by ranking coming eight years ago when he beat world number 29 Marco Cecchinato, a clay specialist. He’s only 3-5 against the top 50 in SW19.
Cobolli’s victory over 19th seed Khachanov took his record at this tournament to an impressive 8-2 – his run to the last eight here 12 months ago means he’s played in as many Wimbledon quarter-finals as his opponent.
While De Minaur is known for his run-all-day attitude and retrieval ability, here he faces a player with the power off the ground capable of punching holes in that renowned defence.
And, as he showed at the recent French Open where he made the final, the Italian has a serve which isn’t always given the respect it deserves.
De Minaur wasn’t at his best when dropping a set to Zach Svajda last time out and while, long term, he is the more established on this surface, Cobolli’s recent improvement suggests to me this is priced up wrong.
Backing Cobolli on the game handicap, where he gets a 5.5 start, looks a solid play but I’m prepared to take the gamble on him landing the upset given the inflated odds.
Grigor Dimitrov v Arthur Fery
I’m surprised Dimitrov isn’t shorter here.
A move onto the grass has cured his 2026 ills and he’s looked in fine form in dismissing Jakub Mensik and Matteo Berrettini over the past wo rounds.
The former semi-finalist has real grasscourt nous and while Fery has outdone himself with his excellent first-week performances, I suspect his time is now up.
The Briton will be playing his first-ever match on Centre Court which will add to the nerves surrounding this occasion, while another first for him is recovering from a match lasting more than four and a half hours.
That’s how long it took him to edge past Zizou Bergs on Saturday and five his lack of experience dealing with that, I would not be at all surprised were we to see that reflected in his physicality against Dimitrov.
For me, the bet here is to back the favourite to cover the -3.5 game handicap.
I can see him dominating this and even if Fery is competitive early on, that potential for him to fade away could serve this bet well.
Taylor Fritz v Alexander Bublik
Two big servers should produce an aces shoot-out on Court One.
Fritz starts as the 1/2 favourite which, despite the head-to-head reading 4-4, seems fair enough.
The American has actually won four of the last five meetings, two of which were played on grass. Notably, both of those were won in straight sets – Fritz winning 95% of his service games across those matches and 33% of return games.
The most recent saw Fritz triumph 6-4 6-4 in Stuttgart only a few weeks ago.
Given those figures, a 3-0 victory at 11/4 is tempting.
Bublik has been slamming down the aces – 91 so far in SW19 – but recent matches with Fritz show he’s struggled to have the same sort of cut-through. In those grasscourt matches, he’s struck only 11.
And the second serve has been an even bigger problem – it won just 31% of points for Bublik in Stuttgart and only 35% in Eastbourne in 2022.
I’m always wary of set betting on the grass as it doesn’t take much to go wrong.
When I started writing this, I saw that three of their last six meetings have seen a first-set tie-break – that’s a 13/8 shot here. That goes to show how sets can easily be settled by a handful of points.
However, given the stats – and odds – involved, I’ll have a small punt on the 11/4.
Bublik is a player whose head can go down when things aren’t going well and if Fritz can get in front early on, that could well happen again, considering his recent record in this match-up.
Posted 16:42 BST on 05/07/2026
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