Tennis betting tips: US Open women's final
1pt Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 at 10/11 (General)
0.5pt both players to serve 5+ aces at 9/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Jessica Pegula v Aryna Sabalenka (2100 BST)
Serena Williams never achieved this but Aryna Sabalenka now stands on the brink of it.
The feat? Winning the Grand Slam hardcourt double of Australian Open and US Open in the same season.
Despite a brief wobble in her semi-final, Sabalenka now stands one win away from justifying favouritism for this tournament – and delivering for our outright preview.
She’s now just 2/5 to get the job done, a price which seems fair enough.
Sabalenka has now won 26 of her last 27 Grand Slam matches played on a hardcourt, a surface on which she’s right at home.
“I enjoy these courts,” she declared after her last-four victory and the Laykold surface does help her big-hitting game.
However, the one loss in that run acts as a warning sign to those already counting their winnings.
It was in last year’s final that Sabalenka collapsed rather dramatically after winning the opening set, producing an error-strewn display which rather handed Coco Gauff her first Grand Slam title.
Pegula would happily accept a repeat but it seems less likely.
Sabalenka was stumbling to get over the line in her semi-final. Up a set against Emma Navarro, she had 15-40 for a double-break and a 5-2 lead but the errors began to flow from the Belarusian’s racquet.
She eventually got over the line by pulling herself together in the ensuing tie-break and, having double-faulted to fall 2-0 down, produced some much better tennis to get the job done.
Being able to change things round once it started going wrong probably wouldn’t have happened two years ago and even 12 months ago we saw the aforementioned choke.
But Sabalenka has certainly matured and she was happy with her effort.
“Even if things are not working well for me, I still keep doing right things and I'm staying in control,” she said afterwards. “I'm actually really proud of myself that I was able to get to the point when I'm in control of my emotions."
Pegula also had to turn the tide in her semi-final – and to an even bigger extent.
CLICK HERE to bet on Pegula v Sabalenka with Sky Bet
She lost the first set 6-1 and was a point away from going 3-0 down with a double-break. It was looking like a rout, a combination of Karolina Muchova playing lights-out tennis and Pegula’s nerves of playing her first Grand Slam semi.
“She made me look like a beginner. I was about to burst into tears because it was so embarrassing,” Pegula said later.
But the player who had toppled top seed Iga Swiatek in the previous round managed to take control of the contest to win in three.
She has now won 15 of her 16 matches since the summer hardcourt swing began but again the odd-one-out is notable – that came in the Cincinnati final when Sabalenka was on the other side of the net.
That result levelled the pair’s hardcourt head-to-head at 2-2, although across all surfaces Sabelnka holds a 5-2 lead, all of her victories coming in straight sets. It’s worth noting than one of Pegula’s wins came in New York in 2020 – it was the pair’s first meeting.
Like Sabalenka, Pegula will be attempting a rare feat in this match – she is looking to become only the third woman in the Open Era to win her maiden Slam after turning 30. Ann Jones and Flavia Pennetta, here in 2015, are the others.
I don’t really fancy here chances too much.
Sabalenka has greater power in her shots than almost anyone in the women’s game and, in the main in New York, she’s been able to control it. It will certainly be a much different match to Pegula’s semi-final which was all about dealing with Muchova’s variety.
I was impressed with how Sabalenka managed to cope with Navarro’s aggression when it came; often the ball was simply hit back harder but the precision was also there.
It’s a game which will – and always has – produced errors but, as already highlighted, they’ve been kept down in recent times.
The serve is strong – 89% of service games have been won so far in this tournament – while the how the pair deal with each other’s second serves also looks likely to be key.
At the US Open, Sabalenka has won 56% of points behind her second serve with Pegula back on 49%. It’s the same margin in their head-to-head series, Sabalenka winning 51% to Pegula’s 44%.
You got the feeling Pegula knew that serve would be crucially when she spoke about the forthcoming final on Thursday night.
“(In) Cincinnati, she served unbelievable and I felt like I still had chances in that match. So hopefully she doesn't serve that good Saturday. Maybe a little bit less would be nice.
"But I think I know that I can have a game that can possibly frustrate her. I feel like in the past I just have to be aggressive, I have to get her moving, serve smart, and try and put some pressure on her serve."
However, if Sabalenka is able to reproduce her defensive efforts of the semi-final, she should come through this test. I feel the match is very much on her racquet and see no real reason to go against my original call, that she would lift the trophy.
Perhaps the crowd could play a part but when they were urging Navarro towards the second set the other night, things didn’t get out of hand – I feel Sabalenka has deliberately tried to get the fans onside with some of her on-court interviews, in which she’s come across as somewhat happy-go-lucky, perhaps wary of a match such as this.
With Pegula likely to be the more nervous, playing in her first Slam final, I can see Sabalenka getting on top erarly and if that happens, it could be a long way back for Pegula. Twenty-seven of the last 29 US Open women’s finals have been won by the playing claiming the opener too.
Sabalenka in straight sets is the call, albeit 10/11 isn’t a price to salivate over.
In the sub-markets, there are potential alternatives at bigger odds.
Bet Builder fans can get 21/10 (bet365) about Sabalenka if they combine the win with the Belarusian serving the most aces and the most double faults.
She’s ahead of Pegula on both counts (on a per-game basis) in this tournament, while previous meetings show she’s won the ace count five times out of seven (one tie) and the double-faults tally four times (again, one tie).
Finally, 9/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill) about both players serving 5+ aces is tempting.
This landed in Cincinnati, although admittedly the courts were faster there.
Pegula has hit five in the pair’s last two matches, while Sabalenka has delivered in four of the last five.
You might need a third set for this to land but it does look overpriced.
Posted at 2300 BST on 06/09/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
