Tennis betting tips: Today's Australian Open preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open women's final

1pt Aryna Sabalenka to beat Madison Keys 2-0 at 5/6 (General)

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Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys (0830 GMT)

A teenage Martina Hingis was the last woman to win the Australian Open three years in a row.

Aryna Sabalenka will look to emulate that feat on Saturday night in Melbourne and she will start a firm favourite to do so.

The world number one began this tournament as the market leader and followers of my outright preview will have her at 5/2 heading into this match.

With Keys 5/2 to land the upset, there’s a clear opportunity to hedge and lock in a profit – my advice in this position would always be to at least ensure that you don’t lose money.

However, is the American really ready to claim her maiden Grand Slam title at the age of 29?

She certainly impressed in taking down Iga Swiatek in the semi-finals on Thursday, coming from match-point down to win a final-set tie-break.

The difference in that contest was that Keys always knew she had the advantage in power terms but that won’t be the case here.

Sabalenka is, at least, able to match Keys’ hitting ability and this promises to be a real slugfest, one which may well boil down to who is able to control the ball the best.

After her semi-final success, Keys admitted that Sabalenka was someone who plays “fearless tennis”, a player who “won’t back down”.

However, she also spoke about how her much-publicised racquet change in the off-season had given her “more control” on her shots and was a “huge benefit”. That could be crucial here.

Keys said she went into her semi-final determined to have no regrets, refusing to be passive, and she’ll need that attitude again here, one suspects.

The head-to-head isn’t in her favour – Sabalenka leads 4-1, while it’s 3-0 on hardcourts with the Belarusian a 6-4 6-3 winner in their most recent match which came in Beijing towards the end of last season.

Across those matches, Sabalenka holds an advantage of eight percentage points on both first-serve and second-serve points won, although Keys will be encouraged by the fact she’s created more break points (41-35). The problem is she’s only converted 32%, while Sabalenka has won 53% of hers.

I’m also a little concerned about how nerves will affect Keys.

Sabalenka has become very used to occasions such as these – this will be her fifth Grand Slam title in two years. She’s gone 3-1 so far.

As for Keys, this will be only her second Slam final – and the first went disastrously. She lost 6-3 6-0 to Sloane Stephens at the 2017 US Open on a day when errors spewed from her racquet.

It may not necessarily play a part in this match but I’m sure Keys will have thought about that awful day in the lead up to this one.

There may also be baggage from the 2023 US Open semi-final, a match which saw Keys claim the first set 6-0 only for Sabalenka to win two tie-breaks to edge home in three sets.

I felt it was very deliberate that Sabalenka spoke about how Keys “started to question herself” a bit in that match and also how conditions in New York were faster than Melbourne – and therefore more suited to her opponent.

Sabalenka also spoke about how playing in Australia “felt like coming back to my home Slam” and I would certainly expect her to be the more relaxed which should allow her to swing most freely.

Plenty of winners will be hit by both players in this one but I suspect the match will be won by the player who can keep their error count down the best and I’d expect that to be Sabalenka.

In addition, she’s become much better at handling adversity in recent years. For example, the only time she’s been really tested in this tournament – by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarter-finals – she wrested back control without panic to win in three sets.

I’ll keep things simple and predict that the best hardcourt player in the world will show her class and win this in straight sets.

That’s a 5/6 shot but, given the outright position, I will keep stakes small.

CLICK HERE to back Sabalenka 2-0 with Sky Bet

Posted at 0825 GMT on 24/01/25

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