After back-to-back days of profit at the Australian Open, Andy Schooler previews Tuesday’s quarter-finals, including Novak Djokovic v Carlos Alcaraz.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1pt Paula Badosa to win a set v Coco Gauff at 11/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Novak Djokovic to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 8/5 (Genetal)
0.5pt over 1.5 tie-breaks in Djokovic v Alcaraz at 4/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Coco Gauff v Paula Badosa (0030 GMT)
Badosa surged back up the rankings in the latter half of 2024 and she’s brought that momentum in the new season, reaching the quarter-finals for the loss of just one set.
Gauff has done likewise and has generally looked a title contender but there have still been lapses.
Belinda Bencic managed to win the first set against her on Sunday, while Britain’s Jodie Burrage should probably have levelled up their second-round match by taking the second set when she had her chance.
For me, Badosa looks on the large side as the 3/1 outsider.
She has the power to deal with Gauff from the baseline and previous meetings show she’s also handled the serve well, breaking it at least four times in five of their six matches.
The head-to-head stands at 3-3 and while Gauff won both meetings last season, Badosa kept it close on each occasion, forcing a third set in Beijing and Rome.
Indeed, she’s managed to win a set in five of the six matches and given she’s back in the sort of form that took her to world number two – Badosa has now won 26 of her last 34 matches – I think backing her to win a set at odds-against looks a decent play.
Tommy Paul v Alex Zverev (not before 0300 GMT)
Followers of my outright preview will already have Paul at 10/1 going into this match as I put him up to win his quarter.
Sadly, the man who was favourite in that market will be in opposition and, having only dropped one set in the tournament thus far, Zverev starts a worthy favourite.
Still, Paul is not without hope. Far from it.
Zverev has become known for producing a stumbling performance at the business end of Grand Slams, while Paul has actually won both previous meetings, winning a final-set tie-break in Indian Wells in 2002 and triumphing in straight sets in Acapulco in 2020.
Most notable in the H2H data is the fact that Zverev has won only 38% of points behind his second serve (Paul is up at 62% on the same metric).
The American, who has broken in 47% of his return games across the first four rounds, is a 12/5 shot here.
It’s a price which could interest some but, given our outright position, there’s no need for me to get involved here.
Aryna Sabalenka v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (0800 GMT)
Pavlyuchenkova netted us a nice winner in the last round when he ousted Donna Vekic but I think she’s met her match here.
Sabalenka was a pre-tournament outright pick on these pages and I’ve no reason to change my mind heading into the quarter-finals.
She’s won every match so far in straight sets and I’d expect her to take down Pavlyuchenkova in the same way.
Few can match her power and while the Russian’s weight of shot is far from low, her movement isn’t the best and I can see her struggling to handle the crunching shots that pull her wide in this match.
The good news for Pavlyuchenkova is that she has won two of the pair’s three previous meetings, including the only one on a hardcourt.
However, that was back in 2019 wit the most recent match in the series coming at the 2021 French Open.
Sabalenka has improved a ton since then, winning three Grand Slams, and I don’t see her losing this time. Sadly, a straight-sets win is only 4/11.
If pushed for a bet, Pavlyuchenkova might be able to keep it relatively close and over 18.5 games makes a little bit of appeal at 5/6.
However, I’m happy to leave this alone.
Novak Djokovic v Carlos Alcaraz (to follow)
The match of the day is, unsurprisingly, the last of the day and the atmosphere should be electric under the lights of the Rod Laver Arena.
This is a real blockbuster with Alcaraz the favourite – both with the bookies and the crowd – to take down the 10-time champion.
I’m not surprised Djokovic has shortened a little with most firms since the market was formed.
After dropping sets in the first two rounds, the Serb has raised his level across the last two matches, beating Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka in straight sets.
Both men appeared to have the tools to trouble the seventh seed but looked overawed by the occasion and were soundly beaten.
The difference here is Alcaraz won’t be cowed. No, sir.
He’ll respect Djokovic for his record-breaking feats on this court but I can’t see the world number three fading away.
It could be a real humdinger and my initial view that this will be close than the odds suggest remains.
Djokovic is 4-3 on the head-to-head, winning three of the last four and both played on a hardcourt, and if there’s one court he’d chose to play this match on, it would be Laver.
The doubts surrounding the 37-year-old are about his lack of ‘big’ wins over the past 12 months or so and many will remember him being outclassed by Jannik Sinner at the back end of lats year’s Australian Open.
But it’s significant that his biggest victory over the past 12 months came against Alcaraz, in the gold-medal match at the Olympics.
Having declared the Slams are his only real goals in 2025, expect laser focus again from Djokovic here and it could reap dividends.
This remains the one Slam Alcaraz has not so far won – indeed he’s yet to play in a semi-final in Melbourne – so I suspect he’d rather be playing this somewhere else.
In short, Djokovic looks worth a small bet at the odds.
The other bet I like here regards tie-breaks.
There were two of them in that Olympic final – neither man broke serve that day – and now five of the pair’s last nine sets have gone the distance.
Five of their seven matches have featured a breaker with three of them seeing two or more.
With Djokovic having held 92% of his service games in this tournament and Alcaraz 94%, there could be tight sets aplenty again.
Over 1.5 tie-breaks is a 4/1 shot and certainly tempting enough.
Posted at 1810 GMT on 20/01/25
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