Our tennis man Andy Schooler is backing three underdogs at the Australian Open on Saturday.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1.5pts Lorenzo Musetti to beat Ben Shelton at 11/8 (General)
1pt Corentin Moutet to beat Learner Tien at evens (General)
1pt Danielle Collins to beat Madison Keys at 23/10 (Unibet, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet)
Ben Shelton v Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti landed us an underdog winner in the previous round and he’s an interesting price again in this one.
The Italian, who was a straight-sets winner when we backed him against Denis Shapovalov on Thursday, has won both previous meetings with Shelton, one of which was on a hardcourt (in Miami last season when he won 6-4 7-6).
Look into the detail and what is particularly notable from those matches is how Musetti has enjoyed plenty of success on the big Shelton serve.
He’s created 18 break points, converting four of them. In contrast, Shelton has had only three break opportunities, albeit he won two of those.
Like Musetti, Shelton has lost just one set in Melbourne so far, doing so against Pablo Carreno Busta, who had six break points but failed to convert any.
His other contest was always likely to be a serve-dominated affair against Brandon Nakashima but this match looks set to be considerably different.
If Musetti manages to get into Shelton’s service games – as he’s clearly managed to do in the past – then I’d expect him to enjoy more success in the lengthy exchanges.
Back him at odds-against.
Corentin Moutet v Learner Tien
It’s been a good Australian Open for the ATP Tour’s so-called ‘Next Gen’.
Teenagers Joao Fonseca, Jakub Mensik and Tien have all beaten top-10 opponents.
However, Fonseca and Mensik both failed to back up those wins, losing in the following round, and there has to be a good chance Tien goes the same way.
As impressive as his conquering of Daniil Medvedev was, you have to wonder how Tien will have recovered from that 3am finish on Friday morning.
He’s just 19 and won’t have had to deal with anything like this before.
In addition, he had already played five sets in round one against Camilo Ugo Carabelli (on top of three qualifiers last week), while organisers haven’t even put him in the night session – his match is due to begin at 3.30pm local time. That’s harsh.
The crafty Moutet is certainly a player who will try to get him running to test out those legs and I like his chances.
He finished 2024 with a semi-final run in Metz and has backed that up with his best-ever performance in Melbourne, beating home star Alexei Popyrin in the first round and Mitchell Krueger in round two, both in four sets.
Madison Keys v Danielle Collins
You probably saw Collins going to war with the Melbourne crowd on Thursday and I’m most certainly looking forward to the reception she gets when she takes to Rod Laver Arena on Saturday night.
I would suggest the atmosphere for what will be the final match of the day will be spicy.
Little bit of prime "Hollywood" Hulk Hogan about Danielle Collins post match!#AO2025 pic.twitter.com/nyusDgt3PP
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 16, 2025
The thing is, the American seems to absolutely relish any abuse she gets and is more than happy to give it back to those in the stands. She said after her win over home favourite Destanee Aiava that it actually makes her play better.
It’s far from the only time she’s taken on a crowd – or even an opponent – verbally and so I’m pretty sure she’ll deal with the inevitable brickbats just fine here and I can’t really figure out why she’s such a big price.
Yes, Keys is 2-1 up on the head-to-head but she’s notoriously inconsistent and with her go-for-broke style, she is always capable of throwing in an error-strewn display.
She only just survived the last round, coming through 7-5 in the decider against qualifier Elena-Gabriela Ruse.
Perhaps it’s the fact Collins received treatment for a foot injury during her win over Aiava, although many suggested the timing of the ailment was too good to be true, Collins calling the trainer just before her opponent was about to serve for the set.
Keys' odds of 4/11 suggest she should be winning this quite comfortably but the higher-ranked Collins is nothing if not a dogged competitor and I just can’t have her at 23/10.
She has to be worth a bet.
Preview posted 1250 GMT on 17/01/25
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