Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters quarter-finals preview and predictions

Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters quarter-finals

1pt Casper Ruud to serve most aces v Karen Khachanov at 11/8 (bet365)

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Casper Ruud v Karen Khachanov (Wed, not before 1400 BST)

Followers of our outright preview have Ruud running at 50/1 and he’s now just 2/7 to win this and progress to the semi-finals.

That would do very nicely and, from I’ve seen this week, he should come through this one.

The Norwegian is yet to lose a set and appears to settled back into the groove on his favourite surface. Admittedly, Lorenzo Musetti wasn’t able to put up much of a fight due to injury on Tuesday – he said afterwards he was “playing on one leg” – but Ruud was also dominant against Jiri Lehecka in the previous round.

I’ve written in the past about Ruud’s serve being underrated and so far this week he’s only been broken once in three matches.

That shot is perhaps the route to profit in this contest.

Ruud is the underdog in the ‘most aces’ market but the fact is he’s ‘won’ this bet in two of the pair’s three previous meetings.

Of those matches, Ruud has won two, including the only one on clay. That meeting came here six years ago and saw the Norwegian win the ace count 6-4.

Last year in the faster conditions of Toronto, he also out-aced the Russian 9-7.

Yes, Khachanov has served more aces so far in Rome but, as I’ve long said on these pages, this market is largely about how Player A reacts to Player B.

In short, Ruud certainly has potential here at 11/8 and it’s a more attractive bet than getting with him at short prices in the match betting and related markets.

Rafael Jodar v Luciano Darderi (Wed, n/b 1930 BST)

I’m rather disappointed in myself that I didn’t latch onto the rise of Jodar sooner.

It feels like a missed opportunity as tasty prices about the Spaniard are now very much a thing of the past; he’s been going off favourite for most of his matches for many weeks now.

That’s the case again here with the teenager a firm favourite to take down home hope Darderi.

It’s hard to argue with that assessment given what we’ve seen from Jodar during this claycourt season.

He beat Tomas Machac en route to his maiden ATP title in Marrakech, crushed Cam Norrie to reach the Barcelona semis, while it took Jannik Sinner to stop him in Madrid, but not before he’d toppled Alex de Minaur and Joao Fonseca.

His blend of power and control should be too much for Darderi, who struggled to deal with Alex Zverev’s heavier hitting for much of his last-16 match. The Italian really should have lost that one but saved four match point as Zverev allowed his issues with the court surface to cloud his focus.

However, Jodar is only 9/20 to get this job done and 23/20 to win in straight sets.

I do expect him to win but both prices look short enough when you consider he’ll be attempting to do something he’s yet to achieve, namely reach a Masters 1000 semi-final.

Jannik Sinner v Andrey Rublev (Thu)

It’s getting harder and harder to find angles on Sinner, who continues to disappear off into the distance, like a lone breakway rider in the Tour de France.

He’s head and shoulders above everyone else currently fit and healthy on the tour – yes, that’s a reference to Carlos Alcaraz – and most of his foes are like lambs to the slaughter.

It’s now 26 wins in a row for the Italian hero, the last three coming here in straight sets.

The serve continues to be a big factor in his success and at this tournament Sinner has faced only two break points so far. Neither was converted.

However, it’s only 8/11 that he holds onto his delivery throughout this match, while the game handicap line is set at a whopping 6.5.

Basically, backers are needing him to win 6-3 6-2 (or similar).

I certainly wouldn’t rule it out but so far this claycourt season, it’s happened ‘only’ seven times out of 14. Here, he faces a step up in class with Rublev the first seed Sinner has met in Rome.

He has the power to cause Sinner problems, although he’ll need to hold it all together for a prolonged period – and that would be my concern.

He’ll likely have to red-line it and while I can see him having a good spell in the match, doing it for two hours seems unlikely. And, when the errors do come, Rublev isn’t always the best at dealing with the frustration.

Sinner has won five of their last six meetings and all three of their completed matches on clay. The last was at Roland Garros last season when, guess what, he didn’t lose serve.

I’ll leave this alone financially and just watch a master at work.

Martin Landaluce v Daniil Medvedev (Thu)

As I write this, Medvedev has just won his last-16 match with an excellent display of returning against Thiago Agustin Tirante and no prices are yet up.

Still, if he plays in the same manner, he’ll take some stopping.

Landaluce’s forehand was firing during his win over Hamad Medjedovic on Tuesday and it will need to do so again here for Medvedev is one of the best retrievers in the sport.

The Spaniard has certainly made the most of his lucky-loser spot and he’s yet to drop a set in the main draw (he lost to Andrea Pellegrino in qualifying, if you were wondering).

Yes, he can cause problems but former champion Medvedev should win this, if he can stay in the same vein.

Posted at 11:00 BST on 13/05/26

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