It retains the Fast4 format – first-to-four-game sets with a tie-break played at 3-3. A shot clock keeps the pace quick and one of the things which has transferred, to some extent, to the regular tour, is legal coaching.

But this year the tournament has added another strange dimension, namely its place in the calendar.

It is marooned in what is really the off-season – the ‘real’ 2024 campaign ended last month, while the new season doesn’t begin until December 27.

Doubtless the Saudi paymasters had something to do with that – for the second year running, the event is taking place in Jeddah on a Greenset court.

But for punters it leaves question marks about how seriously the players will be taking things or, even if you are convinced they will be going full pelt given the good prize money on offer, are they actually well prepared?

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I suspect most have prepared as if this is the first tournament of the new season, essentially sacrificing two weeks of their off-season.

But I’m definitely wary of backing anyone at a short price without seeing them first.

While I am doubtful all eight players are going to be in tip-top shape and form, the tournament certainly has potential to entertain royally.

This year only those aged 20 and under are eligible to play (that’s a year younger than in 2023) but despite this, there are four members of the top 50 present, up from just one last year.

That man was Arthur Fils, who is one of three who return this year, the others being Alex Michelsen and Luca van Assche.

All will be hoping to follow in the footsteps of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, who won this event before going on to become Grand Slam champions and world number one.

In keeping with the organisers’ bid to speed up play, the conditions have tended to play pretty fast at this event, with serve often dominant.

With tie-breaks arriving after six games, down the years I’ve placed plenty of emphasis on players with strong breaker records.

To win this title you will likely need a good tie-break record in the event.

Last year 12 of the 15 matches featured a breaker (down one from 2022), while eight of them saw two or more (up one from 2022).

The tie-break data will definitely be considered in my final betting verdict but first let’s take a closer look at the eight players…

BLUE GROUP

Arthur Fils

Best odds: Title – 13/8; Group – 4/5
Race position: 1
Ranking: 20
2024 win-loss record (tour level): 37-26
2024 best performances: W Tokyo, Hamburg, SF Basel, Auckland
Recent form: L16 Paris, SF Basel, L64 Shanghai, W Tokyo

Record v group opponents:

v Mensik – no previous meetings
v Tien – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 1-0
v Fonseca – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-1

Looks the class of the field. The only top-40 player in Jeddah and one who has accumulated almost twice as many ranking points as anyone else present. Still, that was also the case 12 months ago when Fils was upset in the final. Has also landed the tougher-looking group, one featuring Fonseca, who crushed him for the loss of only four games on the Rio clay back in February. Conditions will be much quicker here which should suit Fils, who looks a worthy favourite, but he’s no shoo-in to qualify, let alone win the title. Was also a late arrival, which doesn’t inspire confidence.

Arthur Fils

Jakub Mensik

Best odds: Title – 7/2; Group – 9/4
Race position: 3
Ranking: 48
2024 win-loss record (tour level): 25-17
2024 best performances: RU Doha, SF Umag, QF Shanghai, Vienna, Mallorca
Recent form: Q2 Paris, QF Vienna, QF Shanghai, L32 Beijing

Record v group opponents:

v Fils – no previous meetings
v Tien – no previous meetings
v Fonseca – no previous meetings

Mensik is the highest-ranked teenager in the men’s game after enjoying an excellent season. He rose from 167th to 48th in the rankings after winning 25 of his 42 tour-level matches. Four of those came against top-10 opponents which shows why he’s likely to climb much higher in the years to come. Finished the season strongly with good runs in Shanghai and Vienna but, a little worryingly, retired through injury in his last match in Paris. Did play well in the Middle East earlier in the year, although how relevant that is, is open to question.

Learner Tien

Best odds: Title – 18/1; Group – 7/1
Race position: 5
Ranking: 122
2024 win-loss record (tour level): 3-2
2024 best performances: QF Winston-Salem, W Fairfield (CH), Las Vegas (CH), Bloomfield Hills (CH)
Recent form: L32 Champaign (CH), RU Knoxville (CH), SF Charlottesville (CH), W Fairfield (CH), SF Tiburon (CH)

Record v group opponents:

v Fils – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-1
v Mensik – no previous meetings
v Fonseca – no previous meetings

Tien is a player I’ve mentioned elsewhere this season and I’ve very much expecting him to enjoy a breakthrough year in 2025. This year he pocketed three Challenger Tour titles and at one stage hit a 28-match win streak. He ended the season with a 60-12 record at all levels, although the majority of those were in the second tier. That said, when he did compete at tour level, Tien managed to reach the quarter-finals in Winston-Salem where he beat two top-70 players. If he can get his strong return game going in these slick conditions – the American has the best return-games won percentage at tour level in the field - Tien has the potential to contend in this pool.

Joao Fonseca

Best odds: Title – 25/1; Group – 7/1
Race position: 8
Ranking: 145
2024 win-loss record (tour level): 7-7
2024 best performances: QF Rio, Bucharest, W Lexington (CH), RU Asuncion (CH)
Recent form: SF Lyon (CH), L16 Helsinki (CH), L32 Bratislava (CH), QF Brest (CH)

Record v group opponents:

v Mensik – no previous meetings
v Tien - no previous meetings
v Fils – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 1-0

The lowest-ranked player in this field and also the youngest but Fonseca is not just here to make up the numbers. He shot to prominence with his upset win over Fils in Rio where he went on to make the last eight. The Brazilian prefers the clay but is no one-trick pony, as he’s shown with his hardcourt results on the Challenger Tour. He also went 2-1 for his country in the Davis Cup group stage, beating Botic van de Zandschulp on indoor hard. It will be quicker than ideal for Fonseca here but he’s not without a chance.

RED GROUP

Alex Michelsen

Best odds: Title – 9/2; Group – 6/4
Race position: 2
Ranking: 41
2024 win-loss record (tour level): 31-29
2024 best performances: RU Winston-Salem, Newport, SF Metz
Recent form: SF Metz, L32 Paris, L32 Vienna, L64 Shanghai, QF Tokyo

Record v group opponents:

v Shang – overall: 2-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-0
v Van Assche – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-1; 2024: 0-0
v Basavareddy – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 0-1; 2024: 0-0

The American enjoyed a fine second half of 2024, reaching two ATP finals and then the semis indoors in Metz in his last outing. Possesses a strong serve which should work well here but Michelsen failed to win a match in Jeddah last year which is rather off-putting. Still, he’s improved a lot since than and also has the advantage this time of having previously faced all three group opponents, so there shouldn’t be too many surprises to deal with. With a decent draw, he should progress to the last four this time.

Juncheng Shang

Best odds: Title – 11/2; Group – 15/8
Race position: 4
Ranking: 50
2024 win-loss record (tour level): 25-18
2024 best performances: W Chengdu, SF Atlanta, Hong Kong, QF Eastbourne
Recent form: L32 Belgrade, L64 Paris, L32 Basel, L64 Shanghai, L32 Beijing, W Chengdu

Record v group opponents:

v Michelsen – overall: 0-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-0
v Van Assche – no previous meetings
v Basavareddy – no previous meetings

Shang will be remembered by followers of this column as the man who gave us a 14/1 winner in Chengdu during the Asian swing. However, the Chinese has gone just 1-5 at tour level since his maiden ATP title. He’ll hope to have recharged the batteries during the brief break and he should be able to reach the semis if he finds his best tennis – the two lower-ranked players are a level or two below. Still, an 0-2 record against Michelsen suggests there may be little room for error.

Luca van Assche

Best odds: Title – 18/1; Group – 9/2
Race position: 6
Ranking: 128
2024 win-loss record (tour level): 8-17
2024 best performances: L32 Australian Open, SF Roanne (CH), Heilbronn (CH), Phoenix (CH)
Recent form: L16 Metz, L32 Bratislava (CH), QF Brest (CH), L32 Antwerp, SF Roanne (CH)

Record v group opponents:

v Michelsen – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-0
v Shang – no previous meetings
v Basavareddy – no previous meetings

Qualified last year but has the unwanted statistic of having slid down the rankings in the 12 months since. He was inside the top 100 when he made the semis here in 2023 but just eight tour-level wins (in 25 matches) was a very poor return for the Frenchman. Perhaps he can draw on his positive experience of playing here before – a winning record over Michelsen is another plus – but having landed in a group with two top-50 players, this looks a big step up.

Nishesh Basavareddy

Best odds: Title – 25/1; Group – 9/2
Race position: 7
Ranking: 138
2024 win-loss record (tour level): 0-0
2024 best performances: W Puerto Vallarta (CH), Tiburon (CH), RU Champaign (CH), Charlottesville (CH), Charleston (CH), Bloomfield Hills (CH)
Recent form: W Puerto Vallarta (CH), RU Champaign (CH), SF Knoxville (CH), RU Charlottesville (CH), L32 Sioux Falls (CH), W Tiburon (CH)

Record v group opponents:

v Michelsen – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 1-0; 2024: 0-0
v Shang – no previous meetings
v Van Assche – no previous meetings

I’ll be honest, I don’t know much about Basavareddy. To be fair, he’s never played a tour-level match and has only met two top-100 opponents, although he did beat one of those. He has, however, been something of a winning machine on the Challenger Tour and he arrives here having recently won in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Like Tien, has won a lot at a lower level but I don’t fancy his chances of bridging the gap as much.

VERDICT

Arthur Fils is the best player in Jeddah but, as we saw last year, that doesn’t mean he’ll win.

In fact, the new dates for this tournament make it very difficult to be confident about much but I know I don’t want to be backing short prices given the potential for players competing undercooked.

My assessment is that the Blue Group is much the stronger and while Fils and Mensik are both ranked considerably higher and should qualify if at their best, Tien and Fonseca are rising stars, with both already proving their ability to compete at tour level.

A good run here would really lay down a marker for the 2025 campaign.

I’m a little tempted by Tien’s price of 7/1 to win the group – two wins might be enough to do that – but my bet of this side of the draw is being reserved for MENSIK.

He has a high ceiling – as shown by his four top-10 wins in 2024 – and the teenager certainly impressed throughout last season, winning 25 tour-level matches.

The Czech is most at home on hardcourts, too, while he also boasts a highly impressive tie-break record.

Mensik won 17 of 26 breakers on the main tour in 2024 and that ability to perform when the pressure is on should serve him well this week when tie-breaks will be plentiful.

It’s certainly a better record than Fils’, who was only 10-9 in tie-breaks on hardcourts at tour level this season.

On the other side of the draw, I’d expect Michelsen and SHANG to be the ones to progress – they look a level above their group foes.

Shang is the one who holds the impressive breaker record here – 16-8 at tour level in 2024 to Michelsen’s 16-19.

The Chinese teenager struggled after winning his maiden title in Chengdu, which is perhaps understandable, but the off-season reset will have hopefully helped him refocus.

He certainly improved considerably in 2024 so I’m less concerned about his losing head-to-head record against Michelsen that others may be.

With Michelsen having struggled in Jeddah last year, a small bet on Shang to win the group at 15/8 is the call.

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