The ATP Mutua Madrid Open semi-finals take place on Friday – Andy Schooler has previewed both matches.
Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open
1pt under 3.5 service breaks in Alexander Blockx v Alex Zverev at 9/10 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
Jannik Sinner v Arthur Fils (not before 1500 BST)
Take Carlos Alcaraz out of the equation – and a wrist injury has done that for now – and these two may well be the best two players of 2026 so far.
Sinner’s skillset has long been well known but Fils has really come to the top table in 2026, converting his undoubted talent into regular deep tournament runs. It is all the more surprising given how the start of his campaign was delayed due to injury.
He arrives at this match 22-5 for the season, with only one defeat suffered to a player ranked outside the top 10.
In Madrid, he started slowly, scraping past Ignacio Buse, but he has improved through the rounds and didn’t face a break point during his quarter-final victory over Jiri Lehecka.
In what will be only the pair’s second meeting – and their first in more than three years – my initial reaction was to get with the Frenchman in some way.
Then the reality of who he’s playing hit.
Sinner is now on a 21-match win streak and his serve has been broken only nine times in that run.
While I don’t think that 2023 match is particularly relevant given the improvements both men have made since, it is worth mentioning that Sinner dominated on serve that day, too, losing only 13 points behind his delivery. Fils failed to break.
If forced, I’d probably back Fils getting a 4.5-game start on the handicap but it would be a hard watch in that position so I’m going to leave this alone.
Alexander Blockx v Alex Zverev (not before 1900 BST)
At the start of this tournament, many punters would have been looking for a big-priced play in the outright market, especially given the gap in it created by Carlos Alcaraz’s withdrawal.
However, we get to the semi-final stage with the three antepost market leaders still involved, plus a certain Alexander Blockx.
Fair play if you saw him coming but I’m pretty sure very few did and I guess that shows just hard it is to find players at big prices to do anything in fields of this quality.
The Belgian is flying right now and is striking the ball so well. In the past three rounds, he’s posted straight-sets win over Felix Auger Aliassime, Francisco Cerundolo and defending champion Casper Ruud.
He’s lost serve just three times in his five matches in Madrid and is loving the Caja Magica venue.
“I think the conditions suit me well here,” he said after stunning Ruud. “I feel like it’s clay which is slow, so I have time to settle and hit my shots, go for my shots. At the same time, it’s quite fast with the altitude and the heat sometimes. I think it’s the perfect combination for me.”
Blockx added: “Once you get confident and you feel your game, a lot can happen,” so could the run continue at 3/1?
It’s certainly possible, although Zverev has been ultra consistent this season, regularly reaching semi-finals – this is his fourth from four Masters 1000 events so far in 2026 and he would probably dispute my line above about Sinner and Fils being the best players of the season.
Twice the champion here, Zverev’s game clearly suits the speedier conditions and he’s also held serve well, being broken four times in his four matches thus far.
He dismantled Fabio Cobolli on Thursday night – a blow for my outright preview which also saw Jiri Lehecka lose his ‘money match’ on Wednesday. It was a huge contrast to the pair’s match in Munich just two weeks ago which Cobolli won comfortably.
This will be Zverev’s first meeting with Blockx though and given the way both men are serving right now, there could be angle worth pursuing.
Given they’ve not met before, it could well take a while for both players to get a read on the other’s serve and thus get their return game going.
Under 3.5 breaks of serve in the match has happened in four of Blockx’s five matches in Madrid and a repeat is on offer at 9/10, although sadly that represents a price cut from the opening shows.
This could land if tournament patterns continue while even if Zverev’s extra class does tell and he ends up dominating, a two or three breaks to nil scenario would see the bet deliver a profit.
For a bigger price, another angle to consider is Zverev not to break in the first set at 12/5.
Clearly this does rely on Blockx keeping up his strong serving run though as Zverev has been a fast starter in Madrid and has broken in the opening set of every match so far at the tournament.
Posted at 08:45 BST on 29/04/26
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