Andy Schooler made a profit in rounds one, three and four of the Mutua Madrid Open. Here is his preview of the quarter-finals.
Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open round four
1pt over 0.5 tie-breaks in Casper Ruud v Alexander Blockx at 26/25 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
Casper Ruud v Alexander Blockx (Thu)
Ruud hung tough in a quality match with Stefanos Tsitsipas on Tuesday.
He missed 11 break points before finally converting one when his Greek opponent was serving for the match. In the end, Ruud edged a match which comprised three tie-breaks.
His own serve looked very good and he looks a worthy favourite here.
I didn’t see Blockx’s victory over Francisco Cerundolo but the stats show he again served well and that’s been the key reason for his recent success.
The Belgian has lost his serve only twice in four matches in Madrid and he’s been very difficult for the returners to attack.
On clay this year, Blockx has held serve a remarkable 92% of the time, while his second-serve points won figure of 60% is also highly impressive.
Give those numbers, you probably won’t be surprised to know that eight of his 12 claycourt matches this season have featured a tie-break and I think this is the angle here.
With both men serving well in conditions which aid that shot, odds-against about a breaker in the match is of interest.
Flavio Cobolli v Alex Zverev (Thu)
Cobolli was really unloading with his forehand during Tuesday’s victory over Daniil Medvedev.
Zverev’s defence is arguably less impressive than Medvedev’s so if Cobolli can deliver something similar here, the Italian could continue his Madrid run.
He certainly had joy against the German in their recent meeting in Munich (also at altitude), winning 6-3 6-3 only a couple of weeks ago.
Zverev has dropped sets to Mariano Navone and Jakub Mensik so far at this tournament so hasn’t been bombproof, despite conditions suiting his big serving game.
I’m tempted by Cobolli here at 5/2 but having backed him in my outright preview, I do already have an interest in this one.
Unlike with Lehecka (see above), I’m not prepared to go in again, although I wouldn’t put anyone off wanting to have a small play on the underdog.
Jannik Sinner v Rafael Jodar (Wed, not before 1500 BST)
I saw Jodar described the other day as “the future of tennis”.
Well, the 19-year-old certainly appears to going places but the bad news for him is that Carlos Alcaraz is still only 22 and Jannik Sinner just 24.
Neither looks to be going anywhere soon (wrist injuries permitting).
Jodar has really come to the fore during the ongoing claycourt season and he arrives at this match having won 12 of his 13 matches on the surface this year.
World number five Alex de Minaur has been among his victims but this looks a great opportunity to take him on.
We’ve seen just how far Sinner and Alcaraz have been ahead of the rest for some time now and I’d expect that chasm to be shown up here.
While I wouldn’t exactly call Jodar’s serve a weakness, the fact is he’s faced 24 break points in his four matches so far in Madrid.
His return game has been the bigger reason why he’s been so successful of late but here he goes up against arguably the best server on the tour right now.
Sinner comes into this one on a 20-match win streak and across those contests, he’s lost serve only nine times.
Like he’s done so often this season, I’d expect the Italian to dictate play behind his serve and open up wounds when tackling Jodar’s second serve.
I considered backing Sinner to win under 12.5 games at 5/6 (in effect betting him to win in straight sets, but removing 7-5 and 7-6 to boost the price from 1/2... though the bet would also win if he simply can't reach 12 games in defeat!) but I think the better play is to side with the Italian on the game handicap where he gives up a 4.5 start.
This option keeps us alive if Jodar does manage to snatch a set – Sinner being more than capable of winning a set comfortably to recover such a setback.
Arthur Fils v Jiri Lehecka (Wed, NB 2030 BST)
Lehecka delivered us a winner on Tuesday, not only covering the handicap but comfortably defeating Lorenzo Musetti.
My theory in that one was that Musetti was still likely below his best and that proved to be the case, although from what I saw, Lehecka played very well and didn’t really give the Italian a look-in.
He saved all four break points faced and has still only been broken once in Madrid.
Followers of my outright preview will have Lehecka here at 8/1 – he was put up to win the quarter – and so if you are holding that ticket you may not want to get involved again.
However, I do think Lehecka may well be worth backing in this one if you are having a standalone bet.
While always wary of placing too much weight on player comments, I was really enthused by Lehecka’s post-match interview on Tuesday.
He explained how hard he’d been working on the practice court to get used to the clay and also spoke about how comfortable he is playing in the altitude of Madrid.
“These conditions here in Madrid suit me well,” he said. “This is a place where I can play well.”
That actually contrasted with Fils’ comments after he saw off Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
I expected a more bullish attitude, given he’s won eight in a row now.
When asked about extending that run, Fils played it down.
“For now, I’m just trying to win one more, then we’ll see about those players who win 20 in a row or 17 in a row. For me, right now, it’s not possible, maybe someday.”
To me, that came across as someone who may be feeling the amount of tennis in his legs right now – this will be Fils’ 27th match since starting his season late in early February.
In short, I like Lehecka here at the price and he looks worth chancing at 7/5.
Posted at 06:50 BST on 29/04/26
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