After a profitable Madrid Open so far, Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s final between Jannik Sinner and Alex Zverev.
Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open
1pt Jannik Sinner to serve the most aces v Alex Zverev at 4/5 (bet365)
Jannik Sinner v Alex Zverev (1600 BST)
We’ve been here before.
This will be the seventh time in just over six months that these two have met and I’ve written a preview on the last five of them.
Apologies in advance if what you are about to read sounds familiar but, to be fair, the matches keep unfolding in a similar way.
The previous five have all been won by Sinner in straight sets with Zverev failing to break the Italian’s serve in any of them. Yes, he is the current world number three.
Going back further, Sinner has now won the last eight meetings with the overall head-to-head standing at 9-4. Zverev’s last win was at the 2023 US Open.
I remember writing about the duo’s Monte Carlo semi-final that the slower conditions would probably see Zverev finally break the Sinner serve but he didn’t even create a break point, so I’m not sure he’ll be bringing great hope to the Caja Magica’s Manolo Santana Stadium court on Sunday.
At least holding serve in the quicker, altitude-assisted conditions of Madrid should be easier for the German, who has held in only 64% of his service games over those last five meetings with Sinner.
The problem is, the same goes for Sinner, who has been broken just twice in his five matches at the tournament so far. It’s the facet of his game that has really gone up another notch in 2026.
So where can Zverev hurt Sinner and begin to think that landing the 9/2 upset is possible?
Well, his first serve is a major weapon when it’s working well – and Zverev has only lost serve four times himself in Madrid. He didn’t face a break point in his semi-final win over Alexander Blockx.
He’ll need to go big on the first delivery, although even then Sinner’s excellence on return might just be too good with Zverev having won just 43% of points behind that shot in Monte Carlo last month.
The backhand is other shot in the Zverev arsenal which often causes big damage.
He’ll likely look to drag Sinner into some backhand-to-backhand cross-court exchanges – Daniil Medvedev had some success against Sinner in Indian Wells on that front – but the Italian rarely allows his opponent to dictate and holding him in such a pattern is likely to be tough to do.
I just don’t see where Zverev is going to change things up in order to stop the momentum that Sinner has built in this match-up.
So, it’s a case of looking for Sinner angles.
Another straight-sets win here is 8/13 which looks OK for those prepared to play at such prices, but it’s not for me to be putting them up here.
Of more interest would be the 5/4 about Sinner covering the game handicap with the line set at 4.5.
Sinner has covered this line in four of those five recent meetings with Zverev, only missing out by a single game in Miami.
A tie-break in the match maybe worth considering at 11/10 – this was a staple of the pair’s matches prior to last autumn when Sinner began his run of dominance.
The quicker conditions give Zverev a better chance of holding – as was the case in Miami recently – but do I trust him to hold onto his serve throughout a set, as he may well have to do here? The answer is no.
Instead, I’m going back to a bet which landed for this column in Monte Carlo and that’s SINNER TO SERVE THE MOST ACES.
Sinner has won this ‘most aces’ market in all five of those straight-sets demolitions and there have been some hefty margins involved too – 1-10-4-5-6.
While Zverev has served more aces in Madrid, it’s been close (40-35), and long-term readers will know full well that I place much greater weight on the head-to-head numbers – this market is all about how well Player A is able to read Player B’s serve and vice versa.
With Sinner’s accuracy having improved, Zverev hasn’t been able to do that very well of late and so the Italian is worth backing here at 4/5, which are bigger odds than we got in Monte Carlo.
Posted at 21:30 BST on 02/05/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
