Jannik Sinner takes on Alex Zverev in Sunday's Australian Open final so check out Andy Schooler's preview and best bets.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open final
1.5pts over 38.5 games in Jannik Sinner v Alex Zverev at 5/6 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Alex Zverev over 2.5 breaks of serve v Jannik Sinner at 11/10 (bet365)
Jannik Sinner v Alex Zverev (0830 GMT)
With Sinner 4/11 and Zverev 5/2, my view on Sunday’s Australian Open final is that the gap between the odds is a little too big.
Most of the time, Zverev has played some excellent tennis over the past year, reaching the French Open final, winning at Masters 1000 level and generally proving hard to beat. He isn’t world number two for nothing.
Yet I use the phrase ‘most of the time’ for a reason.
As I’ve already written on these pages this week, the German hasn’t been the strongest mentally, too often becoming passive in the big moments, failing the execute the sort of shots that had got him into a winning position in the first place.
It happened in that Roland Garros final against Carlos Alcaraz and also against Taylor Fritz at the ATP Finals.
There is a question about Zverev’s inner belief, one which will remain until he wins at the very highest level.
Facing Sinner, who in contrast has been there and got the t-shirt in Grand Slam finals, is another huge challenge, although one he has conquered before.
It’s significant that Zverev comes into this match leading the head-to-head 4-2. It’s 3-1 on hardcourts and 2-1 on outdoor hard. Nearly all the matches have been tight.
The most recent, in Cincinnati last year, went to a final-set tie-break, as did their 2022 clash in Monte Carlo, while their most recent Grand Slam clash – at the 2023 US Open – went to five sets.
Those previous matches, in which Zverev has always enjoyed some success on return of serve, should give the underdog great hope here.
Yes, Sinner is playing well and has now won 20 consecutive matches, the sixth-best wining streak of the 21st Century.
But so is Zverev with both men largely untroubled through the rounds in Melbourne (each has lost just two sets and neither has been extended beyond four sets).
His backhand is one of the best around with the ability to go down the line with it a real weapon.
One suspects Sinner will target the forehand, which has had a tendency to produce errors in the past, although things have improved on that front.
Still, you can expect some lengthy baseline exchanges – Sinner himself said he expects this to be a “physical” match.
That may not be to his advantage given he as cramping in his semi-final the other day after little more than two hours.
The good news is the temperature at first ball is predicted to be a not-too-hot 24C.
Sinner is, of course, the right favourite but I don’t see him as nailed on the successfully defend the title he won 12 months ago.
His proven ability to win at this level is a massive advantage though and given Zverev’s struggles, I can see the Italian coming through after a tough test.
Three of their previous six matches have gone to a deciding set and I wouldn’t be surprised were that to happen again.
Four of the last five have also featured a tie-break and with those two factors in mind, I’m going to head to the total-games market and back the over 38.5 line.
CLICK HERE to back over 38.5 games with Sky Bet
We’ll likely need four sets but both players have won a set in four of the six previous encounters.
In the sub-markets, the bet I like involves Zverev breaking serve.
Yes, Sinner has held serve 95% of the time at this tournament so far but his route through the draw has been pretty smooth and he hasn’t faced anyone who go after him on the return like Zverev.
A look through those previous matches shows that Zverev has broken the Sinner serve at least three times in the last five meetings, including in Cincinnati last season, a venue which produces some of the fastest conditions on the tour.
CLICK HERE to back on the match with Sky Bet
- Posted at 1700 GMT on 25/01/25
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