Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour Open Occitanie in Montpellier

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Alexander Bublik at 12/1 (bet365, Betfred, William Hill)

1pt e.w. Quentin Halys at 25/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)

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Open Occitanie

• Montpellier, France (indoor hard)

Little can sum up the relentlessness of tennis better than that the fact that less than 24 hours after the conclusion of the Australian Open, the ATP Tour will continue about as far away from Melbourne as you could get.

Montpellier is the first event of a short indoor European swing. The GreenSet courts typically play of the faster side of average, although not usually as slick as down the coast at Marseille.

The big servers tend to do well here and one of those, ALEXANDER BUBLIK, has won the title in two of the last three years.

The defending champion will bid for a treble over the coming week and while his form suggests a repeat is unlikely – he lost both matches he played in Australia in straight sets – a move to more favourable indoor conditions may be just what the doctor ordered.

It certainly was in 2022 when he hadn’t won three matches in a row for eight months but surged to the title, defeating Alex Zverev in the final.

He was back for more last season, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime, who is among this year’s favourites, in the semis before victory over Borna Coric in the final.

Indoors, the big Bublik first serve isn’t affected by the wind or the sun and when it goes in it’s very difficult to get back into play. He’s served aces aplenty here in those title-winning years and more should follow.

With a first-round bye, he’s only got to win four matches for a title repeat – or three for a payout if you back him each-way.

That’s realistic given his odds of 12/1 and while I very much understand Bublik is far from being Mr Reliable, I do think the price has some potential given how much he’s enjoyed playing here in the past.

He’s in the top-half of the draw, alongside Andrey Rublev, who is the only top-20 player in the field.

However, it’s worth remembering the reason the Russian is playing here.

He was beaten in straight sets in the first round of the Australian Open by teenager Joao Fonseca and duly requested a wild card in a bid to play his way back into form.

Given his talent, Rublev is clearly capable of winning this week but a lack of confidence looks the only guarantee after losing six matches in a row (and eight of his last nine). Odds of 7/2 make little appeal.

Bublik, who could meet Rublev in the last four, looks to have a decent route through.

He’ll open against a player who lost early on the Challenger Tour last week – Gregoire Barrere or Dominik Koepfer – with his quarter-final foe slated to be David Goffin, but the Belgian was poor in Australia, going 0-3 and suffering some heavy defeats.

The bottom half is led by the aforementioned Auger-Aliassime, already a title winner on the tour this season after his triumph in Adelaide, although he followed that up by losing from two sets up at the Australian Open to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Like Rublev, the Canadian rarely appeals at a short price.

Some will take a chance on last year’s runner-up Coric but I pointed out his awful record in first-round matches during the Australian Open on these pages. He duly earned us a winner, losing to opening foe Cristian Garin in Melbourne, and he’s since lost in round one at Challenger level.

Preference is for home hope QUENTIN HALYS.

He’s here via a wild card but don’t dismiss his chances based on that.

The world number 74 would have got in via his ranking and certainly looks to have the game to go well here.

His serve is under-rated and last season in his 20 matches at main-tour level, he held serve 87% of the time. That’s a higher figure than Novak Djokovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rublev.

His issue is on return but at an event where there look likely to be tie-breaks aplenty, I’m prepared to take a chance on a player who won 65% of his breakers (at all levels) in 2024.

In contrast to Rublev, Halys should be buzzing as he arrives back on home soil for an event which has been won eight times (in 14 stagings) by a Frenchman.

The Parisian has won 33 of his last 46 matches at all levels since hitting the grass last summer.

That run included an ATP Tour final in Gstaad (some of the fastest clay conditions), plus two indoor hard finals on the Challenger circuit. Karen Khachanov was among those beaten at Wimbledon, while Halys finished 2024 with a quarter-final appearance in Metz on the main tour.

Flavio Cobolli and Tallon Griekspoor are the seeds in his quarter so it’s not the toughest section and, all things considered, I feel there’s juice in his price of 25/1.

Posted at 1620 GMT on 26/01/25

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