Tennis betting tips: ATP Cup best bets and team-by-team guide

Tennis betting tips: ATP Cup

2pts Germany to win the ATP Cup at 5/1 (Novibet)

3pts Spain to win Group A at 8/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Poland to win Group D at 9/4 (Novibet)

0.5pt Australia to win Group B at 10/1 (Novibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

ATP Cup

• Sydney, Australia (outdoor/indoor hard)

Just 27 days after the 2021 tennis season ended with Russia lifting the Davis Cup, the 2022 campaign will get under way with, you guessed it, another team competition.

Such is the mad world of tennis.

To call it a silly situation is to dig over old ground but at least there is some method in the madness – the season-opening ATP Cup guarantees the top players multiple matches ahead of the forthcoming Australian Open which is what they need at this time of year.

So, what else do you need to know?

Well, this year’s event features 16 teams, split into four groups, the winners of which will progress to the semi-finals.

Each team will therefore play at least three ties with each of them featuring two singles rubbers followed by a potentially-decisive doubles. In short, it is very similar to those Davis Cup Finals of less than a month ago.

As was the case with the Davis Cup, the action will not all take place at the same venue, although at least this time all the matches will be held in the same city – Sydney.

The two venues aren’t far apart – they both sit inside the city’s Olympic Park – but they are notably different. The Ken Rosewall Arena is the main court and, as in 2020, will stage the final. It has a canopy roof, allowing both the outdoor air to circulate but also for play when rain is falling.

In contrast, the nearby Qudos Bank Arena is a ‘proper’, fully-enclosed indoor venue so conditions will be different.

All teams are scheduled to part at least one tie at the indoor stadium but those in Groups C and D will play two of their group-stage ties there and could therefore be at a slight disadvantage when having to move across the park for the knockout stages.

While we can be sure of these factors, what is less certain is who will actually play.

Organisers have provided an updated entry list with the headline news being that world number one Novak Djokovic is not on it.

Others have been forced out having contracted Covid-19 and it’s hard to imagine that the nine-day event won’t see another player forced to sit things out for the same reason.

That’s a risk punters are going to have to run for the foreseeable future, although in this event it can perhaps be mitigated against by backing a team with strength in depth, rather than one heavily reliant on one specific player.

So, without further ado, let’s take a look at the teams and try to find the winner…

GROUP A

Serbia (best title odds: 10/1; best group odds: 7/2)

• Team: Dusan Lajovic, Filip Krajinovic, Nikola Cacic, Matej Sabanov

Novak Djokovic led Serbia to glory in this competition two years ago but he’s not here this time around which is a major blow to his nation’s hopes. However, it should not be seen as a fatal one. Lajovic and Krajinovic are both top-50 singles players and capable of winning rubbers in this group. The last group match against Spain looks likely to decide the pool winner.

Norway (title: 33/1; group: 5/1)

• Team: Casper Ruud, Viktor Durasovic, Lukas Hellum-Lilleengen, Leyton Rivera, Andreja Petrovic

Five Norwegians make have made the trip to Sydney but, in reality, this is a one-man team. Ruud enjoyed an impressive 2021 season, improving notably on hardcourts, but it’s near-impossible to see him winning singles and doubles in every tie. Given he’s got no team-mate in the top 300, that’s what’s likely to be required. It’s not going to happen.

Chile (title: 100/1; group: 25/1)

• Team: Cristian Garin, Alejandro Tabilo, Tomas Barrios Vera

If Ruud is carrying Norway’s hopes, similar things can be said of Garin for Chile. He has got slightly better back-up – Tabilo is ranked 139 in singles – but the fact is both men would much rather be playing on clay. Conditions will likely be too fast for them and Chile look set to finish bottom in this pool.

Spain (title: 6/1; group: 8/11)

• Team: Roberto Bautista Agut, Pablo Carreno Busta, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Pedro Martinez

There’s no Rafael Nadal, who instead opted to play in Melbourne in the opening week of 2022 (I’ll preview that event over the weekend), but strong singles options remain in the shape of Bautista Agut and Carreno Busta, both of whom are in the top 20. There’s strong back-up too, if required, with all five team members in the top 60. No doubles expertise is a potential issue though and at least a slight concern for backers at what is a fairly short price.

GROUP B

Russia (title: 10/1; group: 4/1)

• Team: Daniil Medvedev, Roman Safiullin, Evgeny Karlovskiy

Russia are the ATP Cup holders and reigning Davis Cup champions but their hopes of continuing their team dominance have been dealt a hammer blow by Covid. They’ve lost three team members ahead of the tournament, namely Andrey Rublev, Aslan Karatsev and Evgeny Donskoy. Losing Rublev is especially significant. He would have been the second highest-ranked singles player in the event and also featured in doubles. In Djokovic’s absence, Medvedev is the highest-ranking player involved and he’ll be hard to beat but he’s no doubles player so it’s hard to see where another point is going to come from with Safiullin ranked just 167th.

Italy (title: 5/2; group: 8/11)

• Team: Matteo Berrettini, Jannik Sinner, Lorenzo Sonego, Simone Bolelli, Fabio Fognini

Last year’s runners-up look to have every chance of going one better 12 months on. In Berrettini and Sinner, they boast two of the world’s top 10 singles players, while for doubles, Bolelli and Fognini are former Australian Open doubles champions. Fognini is no mean singles player either, while Sonego is also a more-than-useful reserve. Look worthy favourites.

France (title: 25/1; group: 8/1)

• Team: Ugo Humbert, Arthur Rinderknech, Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Fabrice Martin

France only came into the draw on Wednesday as late replacements for Austria and their team is pretty strong considering. Humbert and Rinderknech are both top-60 singles players and will enjoy conditions if, as expected, they play quicker than average. Meanwhile, both Martin and Roger-Vasselin are in the doubles top 50. The problem is, France have landed in a tough group and you do wonder how prepared they are for what is a pretty intense opening-week schedule.

Australia (title: 33/1; group: 10/1)

• Team: Alex de Minaur, James Duckworth, Max Purcell, John Peers, Luke Saville

Australia didn’t qualify by right – they are only here because they are hosting – but home advantage will certainly help. They made the last four in 2020 when De Minaur shone. He endured a miserable 2021 but has regularly performed well in his homeland, winning an ATP title here in Sydney in 2019. Duckworth, likely to play as singles number two, enjoyed a good last season and with Peers and Saville a strong doubles team – both are in the world’s top 25 in that format – the Aussies should not be discounted in an admittedly strong group.

GROUP C

Germany (title: 5/1; group: 11/8)

• Team: Alexander Zverev, Jan-Lennard Struff, Yannick Hanfmann, Kevin Krawietz, Tim Puetz

The Germans hold strong title claims. Zverev was arguably the world’s best player in the second half of 2021, winning Olympic gold and finishing the year with victory at the ATP Finals. A negative note is that he’s got a 1-5 record at the ATP Cup, although team-mate Struff has gone 4-2 in previous editions and also stepped up to the plate for his country at the recent Davis Cup Finals. Germany made last four of that event and much of that was down to doubles stars Krawietz and Puetz, who proved a formidable team. There are perhaps not great options is one player is forced out for any reason but if those four all stay fit and available, Germany have a great chance.

Canada (title: 16/1; group: 9/2)

• Team: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov, Brayden Schnur, Steven Diez

With Shapovalov having tested positive for Covid-19 upon arrival in Australia, it’s hard to be anything like confident about Canada’s chances. Auger-Aliassime – also strangely nominated as captain for this event – is a quality player and in normal circumstances he and Shapovalov would be a strong line-up. However, even if the latter is allowed to play (which seems unlikely), he’ll surely be well short of practice and possibly fitness. Canada don’t have the strength in depth to be carrying a passenger and they are easy to overlook.

Great Britain (title: 14/1; group: 6/1)

• Team: Cameron Norrie, Daniel Evans, Liam Broady, Joe Salisbury, Jamie Murray

With two top-25 singles players and two from the top 20 in doubles, GB have a strong team, make no mistake. But it’s one largely the same as they fielded at the Davis Cup (Murray has replaced Neal Skupski) when they came unstuck in the quarter-finals following a disappointing singles display from Norrie. You wonder if any scars remain from that surprise defeat to the Germans, who they will meet again this week, and who are now considerably stronger with Zverev in their ranks. There’s also no Leon Smith here this week which will be unusual for the team – Liam Broady is nominated as playing captain. GB have the potential to win this but they’ll likely need everything to go right, something that didn’t happen at those Davis Cup Finals.

USA (title: 14/1; group: 7/2)

• Team: Taylor Fritz, John Isner, Brandon Nakashima, Rajeev Ram

Fritz and Isner are both decent singles players but there’s a lack of x-factor with world number 23 Fritz being one of the lowest number-one players in the tournament. He also finished 2021 nursing an injury which you’d want to know has fully healed before getting involved. Isner disappointed at the Davis Cup Finals and while he and Ram should make a decent doubles team, USA seem unlikely to get out of this tough group.

GROUP D

Greece (title: 50/1; group: 4/1)

• Team: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Michail Pervolarakis, Petros Tsitsipas, Markos Kalovelonis, Aristotelis Thanos

That phrase ‘one-man team’ rears its head again here. World number four Stefanos Tsitsipas is essentially using this event to fine-tune for the Australian Open – deep down he’ll know Greece have no chance of lifting the trophy. It’s been this way in the last two years too. Pervolarakis is 0-5 across those two events with Greece losing all but one tie – and that was handed to them by an already-qualified Spain side.

Poland (title: 25/1; group: 9/4)

• Team: Hubert Hurkacz, Kamil Majchrzak, Kacper Zuk, Jan Zielinski, Szymon Walkow

When it comes to Poland’s chances, much rests on the shoulders of Hurkacz, although there is some support coming his way. Majchrzak is the world number 117 and capable of wins at this level on a good day, while Zielinski and Hurkacz won an ATP doubles title in Metz last season. Walkow, Zielinski’s regular partner, is also no mug in doubles. We’ve seen players step up in the team environment before and there’s enough in this line-up to give the Poles hope of winning what looks the weakest of the four groups.

Argentina (title: 25/1; group: 6/4)

• Team: Diego Schwartzman, Federico Delbonis, Federico Coria, Maximo Gonzalez, Andres Molteni

Hardcourts are never ideal for the South Americans but in a weak group, strength in depth may get them through. Schwartzman is one who is certainly more than capable on this surface, although you’d question whether he’ll be good enough to be winning rubbers come the knockout stage. Delbonis (44) and Coria (63) offer unconvincing back-up but perhaps the presence of Gonzalez and Molteni, both top-50 doubles players, will be enough to calm any nerves. Look shaky jollies in this group though.

Georgia (title: 100/1; group: 9/1)

• Team: Nikoloz Basilashvili, Aleksandre Metreveli, Aleksandre Bakshi, Zura Tkemaladze, Saba Purtseladze

Our final team look the ultimate no-hopers. Georgia are only here thanks to Basilashvili – no other player is in the top 500 in singles or doubles – and he’s ranked lower than all three scheduled opponents in the group stage. It’s easy to see Georgia losing every rubber so I’ll happily wrap things up there.

VERDICT

The one crucial piece of information I’ve yet to mention is the knockout-stage draw, the bracket for which is already known.

The winners of Group A and D will meet in one semi with the other between the winners of groups B and C.

Essentially, that draw has the two weakest groups (A/D) on one side of it and the two strongest (B/C) on the other.

I’d expect Spain to emerge from that A/D section given the quality at their disposal.

However, the problem is I don’t see them beating either of the teams expected to emerge from the other side of the draw – Italy or Germany, both of whom have top-10 singles players, plus better doubles pairings.

Spain are a potential each-way option. I’d have gladly backed them each way at 6/1 but that top price is in Novibet’s win-only market.

Italy certainly look strong and I’m not surprised to see them as favourites.

We saw at last year’s Davis Cup Finals how two strong singles players can take you all the way – Medvedev and Rublev dominating for Russia – and it’s not hard to envisage Berrettini and Sinner, an ATP title winner in Australia last season, doing something similar here.

However, they are just 5/2 for the title and have a tough group to negotiate, not to mention what looks sure to be a testing semi-final. This early in the season, I’m not too interested in a price such as that.

Instead, I prefer a GERMANY team who I really don’t think should be twice the price of the Italians.

• CLICK HERE to back Germany for the ATP Cup with Sky Bet

Zverev was very good post-Wimbledon last season and I’m sure he’ll be looking to lay down a marker ahead of the Australian Open here.

Struff has decent form in team formats but it is their doubles pair of Krawietz and Puetz who really seal the deal – they were outstanding at the Davis Cup Finals and I can see them proving the difference in any semi-final with Italy.

I’ll back the Germans to win the ATP Cup at 5/1.

I’m also going to take aim I the group betting with SPAIN looking solid 8/11 shots for GROUP A.

With two top-20 singles players, they really should be too strong for a Djokovic-less Serbia, while there’s not much else in this pool to worry about.

If Spain are the bankers in these markets, POLAND look a value shout at 9/4 TO WIN GROUP D.

Argentina are the jollies here but hardcourts are not their domain and they look opposable.

Much will rest on the shoulders of Hurkacz but as explained above, the Poles do have other ways of winning points in this weak pool and they look overpriced to me.

Finally, let’s take a long shot by backing AUSTRALIA TO WIN GROUP B at 10/1.

This is a strong section with Italy worthy favourites but home advantage will be worth something here and may well bring the best out of de Minaur.

He’s sure to have been looking for solutions in the off-season after a poor 2021 and has shown in the past, particularly on home soil, that he possesses the game to beat the opponents he’ll face over the coming week.

Duckworth is also capable of nicking a point or two, while the doubles specialists, Peers and Saville, could prove vital if the Aussies do find themselves in decisive rubbers.

It’s definitely a bit of a punt but 10/1 does look large.

Posted at 2230 GMT on 30/12/21

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