Recommended bets
1pt Djokovic to lose the first set and win the match 3-1 at 9/1
1pt Pouille to win the first set 7-6 at 14/1 at 14/1
You’ll be pushed hard to find the last time a player was double-figure odds to win a Grand Slam semi-final, but that’s the case as Lucas Pouille takes on Novak Djokovic.
Pouille arrived in Melbourne with low expectations, having barely won more games than he lost in 2018 and having last all of his previous five matches at the Australian Open.
He also lost all three matches at the Hopman Cup and his opening-round match in Sydney, seeing his outright price drift out to as big as 500/1 in places.
However, the sort of form which saw him rise to world number 10 last year has returned, making him a dangerous wildcard for Djokovic to deal with in their first meeting.
Importantly from a betting perspective, the 24-year-old Frenchman has the weapons to snatch a set here and he can take the first before his opponent takes control.
Pouille has hit the fifth most aces in Melbourne Park, while winning 82 per cent of first-service points, more than both Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.
The real test will be how his second serve holds up to arguably the game’s greatest returner, but his ground strokes are potent enough to win his fair share of rallies if he is hitting freely.
That’s a big ‘if’ in a semi-final, but the nature of their respective routes to the match is where I really warm to this bet.
Pouille basically has a free hit, with odds of 40/1 suggesting nobody still truly believes he can go all the way Down Under.
He’s also got previous of beating the game’s best as well, toppling Nadal in a major and beating Andy Murray in Cincinnati last year.
Meanwhile, the same logic as I followed to back Djokovic pre-tournament provides reason to suggest he might not produce his best from the outset here.
After a two-year post-Grand Slam completion slump, all four of his 2018 titles came when at major or Masters level, suggesting motivation is a pivotal factor for him.
Kei Nishikori was physically unable to trouble the Serb in the quarters, but Daniil Medvedev did take a set off of him in the fourth round when the odds were stacked in the world number one's favour.
Djokovic admitted after that match that he felt a few physical problems himself, including back discomfort.
Therefore, if a pressure-free Pouille can come out all guns blazing then there’s an opportunity for us to benefit from the aggressively one-sided odds.
While stopping short of suggesting Djokovic could get complacent and lose the match, I can’t justify backing him at 4/6 to win in straight sets as France’s next star enjoys a remarkable renaissance.
Pouille has also contested eight tie-breaks in his last four matches, winning five, so I'll have a small interest on him taking the first set 7-6 as well.
