Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s semi-finals at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters – it’s hard to look beyond an Alcaraz v Sinner final now.
Tennis betting tips: Monte-Carlo Masters SFs
1.5pts Jannik Sinner to serve the most aces v Alex Zverev at 8/11 (bet365)
Alex Zverev v Jannik Sinner (1230 BST)
I remember not so long ago writing a Zverev v Sinner preview during which I pointed out how tight their series had been.
Since then, Sinner has taken completely control of the ‘rivalry’. He’s now won seven in a row with the last four all being won in straight sets. Zverev hasn’t even broken serve in those four matches.
In the slow, claycourt conditions of Monte Carlo, you’d think that run without a break would probably end here but whether Zverev can compete to a level where the match result is in some doubt, is very much open to question.
The layers clearly think not – he’s out at 9/2 to win this one.
The German was able to raise his level on Friday as he edged out rising star Joao Fonseca in a lengthy battle.
But this is another step (or three) up with Sinner able to match Fonseca for power but, crucially, having greater accuracy and consistency on his shots.
I think the clay gives Zverev a greater chance of landing the upset but the bottom line is it’s very unlikely to happen.
Maybe getting with the underdog on the game handicap – he gets a 4.5 start – has potential, but it would take a braver and more confident man than me to back that given how he’s been so badly beaten in his recent meetings with the Italian.
If I’m backing an odds-on shot, I’d much rather it be in the sub-markets and I’m returning to that serve dominance.
No, I’m not going to back Sinner to remain unbroken again – that’s a 6/5 shot with bet365 – but I do like the look of the favourite in the ‘most aces’ market.
Sinner has won this at a canter in those most recent four meetings.
The previous one, in Miami last month, saw him hit his spots majestically as he out-aced Zverev 15-5. The other ‘scorelines’ have been 8-4, 12-7 and 8-2.
The clay will doubtless reduce the number of aces served here but, with the exception of his match with Felix Auger-Aliassime on Friday, Sinner has still been hitting plenty of them so far this week.
It’s a facet of his game which has really kicked on in 2026 and his placement can again account for Zverev in this market, albeit it’s admittedly not a price to set the pulse racing.
Carlos Alcaraz v Valentin Vacherot (not before 1430 BST)
I wrote about the fatigue factor surrounding Vacherot in my quarter-final preview.
It mattered little – he simply went out and won another two-hour-plus match, grinding out victory over Alex de Minaur.
I suspect he’ll actually have his backers here at 9/1.
Playing on home soil, the Monegasque is reminding us all of the run which sparked his remarkable rise. That came in Shanghai in October when he won from pretty much nowhere.
Few had heard of Vacherot prior to that and many would have expected him to fade away almost as quickly as he had announced himself.
That’s not happened – far from it – and now he’s back in a Masters 1000 semi-final.
However, for all the fairytale talk, logic says he has little chance against the best claycourt player of them all at present.
As I hinted at in my previous preview, Alcaraz destroyed Alexander Bublik on Friday, losing just three games, and unless he implodes then I can’t see Vacherot getting through him here.
Alcaraz’s racquet-head speed is much greater and the ball is going to coming back at Vacherot much harder. The Spaniard will look to drag him around the court and take those legs – few play the drop shot better.
Alcaraz (-5.5) to cover the game handicap would probably be the one for me if I were pushed, but I dislike these short-priced favourite matches – we’re getting way too many of them at the moment as the Big Two dominate – and it’s not really something I want to be getting involved with.
Posted at 22:15 BST on 10/04/26
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