Andy Schooler previews Thursday’s third-round matches at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters.
Tennis betting tips: Monte-Carlo Masters round three
0.5pt Zizou Bergs to win a set v Alex Zverev at 6/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Joao Fonseca (-0.5) to beat Matteo Berrettini on the game handicap at 7/10 (Unibet)
1pt Tomas Machac (+6.5) to beat Jannik Sinner on the game handicap at 17/20 (William Hill, 888sport)
Zizou Bergs v Alex Zverev (1000 BST)
The way these two performed on Wednesday suggests Bergs may well be too big here.
The Belgian is 10/3 for the victory having already taken down former champion Andrey Rublev in pretty ruthless fashion.
Zverev, meanwhile, really should have lost to Cristian Garin, who rolled back the years to lead 4-0 and then 5-2 in the deciding set, only to lose the last five games.
It was an error-strewn display from the German, who admitted afterwards that “my level was not there at all”.
He added: “It was my first claycourt match in 11 months. I didn't have much time to prepare as I played well in Miami.”
The layers appear prepared to accept that Zverev will be ‘better for the run’, to use racing parlance, but I’m not so sure.
Bergs was much cleaner in taking down Rublev for the loss of just five games, adding the Russian’s scalp to a growing list of big names, which includes Felix Auger-Aliassime earlier this season.
He’s odds-against to win a set which I find tempting, although I also understand the potential for Zverev to power through the Belgian’s defences if he finds his form – the pair have yet to meet so that element could prove tough for the underdog.
Matteo Berrettini v Joao Fonseca (1000 BST)
Berrettini was the man behind Daniil Medvedev’s headline-grabbing double-bagel defeat – and the associated racquet destruction.
In two rounds, he’s yet to lose a single game – Roberto Bautista Agut having retired after losing the first four games in round one.
That eyecacthing statistic has shortened his price up here, I believe. Had he not produced the 6-0 6-0 scoreline, I very much doubt Fonseca would be as big as 4/6.
Admittedly, Berrettini did win the duo’s only previous meeting, although it came on an indoor hardcourt back in 2024.
Fonseca has improved greatly since and these outdoor claycourts are his domain.
He’ll surely look to break down the weaker Berrettini backhand and I feel the Italian will need to dominate behind his big serve if he’s to fend off Fonseca and his strong baseline game.
I’m dreading a Fonseca run to the final now having knocked him off my outright shortlist in favour of some terrible picks who have already fallen by the wayside but if that is to happen, at least we can recover the position a little here by backing him in this one.
The 4/6 was actually longer when I started writing this preview and I usually have 7/10 as my cut-off point in price terms.
However, by turning to the game-handicap market, we can get the 7/10 back – Fonseca has to give up a half-game start.
Tomas Machac v Jannik Sinner (to follow Zverev match)
The main point behind the outright preview was that the Big Two, Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, could be taken on this week.
They certainly made that theory look foolish in dominant opening-round wins but I’d still say it’s early days in terms of whether that view will be proved right or wrong.
I was hoping Francisco Cerundolo would be here to have a go at Sinner but Machac took him down on Wednesday, a win which will give him some much-needed confidence going into this contest.
A big problem for the Czech will be the fact he’s played Sinner three times before, lost three times and is yet to win a set.
Despite that, I’m still thinking that the handicap line is set rather high – Machac is getting a 6.5-game start.
He’s covered that in two of those three meetings, all of which took place on a hardcourt.
I’d give him a better chance of keeping this close on clay; this is a player who has beaten Novak Djokovic on this surface in the past.
I would expect Machac to be more competitive than Ugo Humbert (won three games on Tuesday) and while Sinner is more than capable of taking anyone apart, my logic – which certainly seemed sound at the weekend – suggests this should be competitive.
Posted at 21:35 BST on 08/04/26
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