Andy Schooler previews Friday’s quarter-finals at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters.
Tennis betting tips: Monte-Carlo Masters QFs
1pt Joao Fonseca to beat Alex Zverev at 13/10 (General)
1pt Jannik Sinner to win the first two games v Felix Auger-Aliassime at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Joao Fonseca v Alex Zverev (1000 BST)
I wrote about Fonseca’s rise in pre-season and his improvement has continued this week, this being his first quarter-final at Masters 1000 level.
The Brazilian has far from a rabbit in the headlights when facing Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in the US last month and I very much doubt he’ll be cowed by facing the third member of the world’s top three here.
The surface switch is certainly in his favour and Fonseca arrives off the back of a commanding performance against Matteo Berrettini, which produced a winner for this column.
Zverev also eased through, albeit Zizou Bergs committed far too many errors and looked lacking in self-belief.
I doubt that will be the case with Fonseca, whose arsenal means he can fight fire with fire from the baseline.
I’m disappointed in myself that I didn’t back Fonseca outright after he made my shortlist, although if he beats the world’s top three from here, it would be a remarkable achievement so I can rest easy for now.
However, I do think he’s capable of living with Zverev, who was patchy at best in his opener, while he also had some issues closing out against Bergs.
I’ll back the underdog here at 13/10.
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Jannik Sinner (to follow)
Of Friday’s four quarter-finals, this is the only match-up we’ve seen before with Sinner having won the last four to take a 4-2 lead in the series.
Three of those have come in straight sets and I fear this is a match which may have been largely decided before the players even take to the court at the Monte Carlo Country Club.
Sinner has won 96% of his service games across those four recent matches (all have been played since the start of August 2025) and broken in 32% of return games. On second-serve points won, Sinner is up at 65% with FAA down on 39% – it’s a huge advantage which could well shape this contest too.
I remember mentioning similar stats when previewing one of the pair’s matches at the back end of last season and I’m going to put up the same bet I did then.
Sinner has won the opening two games in four of the last five meetings, the only ‘miss’ coming in Turin where the indoor conditions are among the fastest on the tour.
That’s a complete contrast to here and if FAA isn’t banging in his first serve in his opening service game, the stats above show how he could easily be in trouble early doors.
He’ll be fully aware of his awful record in this match-up and I’ll happily take the 9/4 about Sinner opening an early advantage, just as he did against Tomas Machac on Thursday when he won the first four games of the match.
Carlos Alcaraz v Alexander Bublik (to follow)
Bublik has the firepower and the audacity to knock even the best out of their stride but whether he has the consistency to do it for two hours is what’s usually open to question.
The Kazakh has certainly improved on that front over the past 12 months – he wouldn’t have reached the top 10 otherwise – with the meltdowns having largely disappeared too.
However, it’s worth noting that one player to reduce him to an also-ran in that period was Jannik Sinner, who schooled him at both Roland Garros and the US Open – Bublik won just nine games across those two matches.
Alcaraz did show his vulnerability on Thursday when he produced an error-strewn second set against Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
Bublik is more than capable of taking advantage of a similar spell here – and Alcaraz has been known to do this in the past.
Simply looking back at last season’s clay campaign shows Alcaraz lost a set in three of his five matches en route to the title here, while it was four of seven at Roland Garros. Backing him to win in straights (always at a short price) hasn’t been a good betting strategy.
Bublik is 3/1 to win a set here which is tempting but it’s not something I can pull the trigger on.
I must admit I’m fearful that I’ve not caught up with the Kazakh’s improvement and I may still have too many of his meltdowns burnt onto my brain – this is a man that has played shots with the racquet handle in the not-too-distant past.
He could easily lose this in the same manner that Sinner destroyed him last summer so I’m going to leave it alone and hope that 3/1 doesn’t come in because I’ll be gutted if it does.
Valentin Vacherot v Alex de Minaur (to follow)
I’m writing this just after Vacherot’s victory over Hubert Hurkacz which proved a long physical battle under the floodlights.
After becoming the first home player to reach the quarter-finals here, the Monegasque said he revelled in such matches but the tennis in his legs must be building up and this tournament is, unlike so many of the Masters events these days, still played in one week, meaning there’s no time to rest up.
De Minaur is not the sort of player you want to be facing if you are jaded, either.
The Australian will run all day and chase down ball after ball.
With this being the last match of the day, there’s a good chance it’s another contest played in cool, evening conditions – and Vacherot admitted the balls were “so heavy” on Thursday night when hitting winners was very difficult.
While I couldn’t rule out Vacherot, I think De Minaur is the likely winner.
However, no prices are currently available and I would expect the Aussie to be going off the favourite so it’s one I’m happy to leave alone.
Posted at 22:00 BST on 09/04/26
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