Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Monte Carlo Masters final between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner when the world number one spot will be on the line.
Tennis betting tips: Monte-Carlo Masters final
1pt Jannik Sinner to beat Carlos Alcaraz at evens (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Sinner to serve over 1.5 double faults at 6/5 (bet365)
Carlos Alcaraz v Jannik Sinner (1400 BST)
After they met six times on the tour in 2025, it’s fair to say most didn’t expect to wait until mid-April for the first Alcaraz v Sinner match of 2026.
I was far from convinced it would happen this week, either. Alcaraz’s form had been patchy at the March Masters 1000 events in the US, while Sinner has traditionally taken a while to get into the groove on the clay – this is the first time he’s reached the title match in Monte Carlo.
However, both men have, in the main, looked imperious again.
The only wobble for each man came in round three when both produced a shaky 20-minute-or-so period during which their level dipped and it proved enough for their opponents – Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Tomas Machac – to claim a set.
So now they will meet again – with the added incentive of the world number one spot being on the line.
It will be their 17th clash at tour level with Alcaraz leading 10-6 and 3-1 on this clay surface. Perhaps significantly, the Spaniard has won seven of the last nine at tour level, although Sinner was victorious in the most recent meeting which came indoors at the ATP Finals in Turin in November.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Italian has won two matches against Alcaraz at the 6 Kings Slam event during that period, too. That is technically classed as an exhibition tournament but, given the huge prize money on offer, I can assure you it was taken seriously.
Alcaraz is certainly the more natural on clay and with this having been priced up as a 50-50 match by several firms, I can certainly understand the appeal in backing him.
However, I’m siding with Sinner on this occasion with the main reason being his game looks to have improved the most in 2026.
His serve has been the big eyecatcher for me – he’s just been so hard to break, as Alex Zverev found out on Saturday.
The German struggled to win points on the Sinner serve, the Italian winning 75% of them behind his second delivery. He lost just seven in total.
Sinner didn’t face a break point and has now held serve throughout 18 of his 25 matches this season. This week, only Machac has broken him, doing so twice in a row during that shaky spell I’ve already referred to.
Overall, this season, Sinner is holding at a rate of 94%. For the record, Alcaraz is at a still-impressive 90%.
OK, Alcaraz is among the best returners and should put more pressure on Sinner’s serve but if the Italian continues to hit his spots – Sky Sports has regularly shown graphics this season about his ability to go close to the lines – I believe even he may be surprised by that shot, one which played a big part in the aforementioned Turin victory.
We know Alcaraz is capable of dragging Sinner to places he doesn’t want to be but the Italian has been so solid during his recent 16-match win streak that I simply can’t oppose him.
It should also be remembered that he should really have beaten Alcaraz to claim the French Open when they last met on clay, blowing three consecutive championship points to win in four sets.
There’s also a bet I like in the sub-markets and, like Saturday’s winner, it’s one I’m going to recycle from a previous preview.
Ahead of that Turin clash, I highlighted how Alcaraz’s returns put added pressure on Sinner and how that has led to his double-fault count rising in their matches.
The Italian duly served five that day when he had been priced up at 5/2 to serve 2+.
Sadly, the bookies aren’t making such a big mistake this time but I still feel there’s some value in the odds-against quotes available on the same bet.
In their 16 tour-level matches, Sinner has now served 2+ double faults in 14 of them.
That need to go close to the lines or add a bit more power on those crucial second-serve points can produce the errors required and, again, the price just looks out.
Posted at 22:05 BST on 11/04/26
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