Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s French Open quarter-finals in which he hoping to land an 11/1 outright bet.
French Open betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt Anna Kalinskaya to beat Maja Chwalinska at 10/11 (General)
1pt Flavio Cobolli to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime at evens (BOYLE Sports)
Anna Kalinskaya v Maja Chwalinska (1000 BST)
In what the bookies have as virtually a 50-50 match I’m edging towards Kalinskaya here.
She held her game together well when under serious pressure against Anastasia Potapova in the last round – the Austrian had big chances to claim the victory – and from what I’ve seen, her top level is the better of these two.
That should be no surprise – Kalinskaya is the 22nd seed; Chwalinska is the world number 114, who came through qualifying.
The higher-ranked player has also been at this stage of a Grand Slam before, reaching the last eight of the 2024 Australian Open, and you do wonder if Chwalinska is going to start showing some nerves at some point.
Another potential angle comes in the aces market.
Chwalinska serves few of these. Indeed 14 of her last 18 matches have seen her produce none at all.
In addition, Kalinskaya has ‘conceded’ only three aces in four rounds so far in Paris.
Chwalinska is 11/8 with the Flutter firms for no aces again here, although that’s a little short to interest me – this will be the pair’s first meeting so there’s no guarantee Kalinskaya will get an immediate read on the serve.
However, if Unibet go up with under prices, the bet may be worth pursing. With over 0.5 available at 27/100, the other side of that bet should be around the 13/5 mark which I would be prepared to back.
Aryna Sabalenka v Diana Shnaider (to follow)
Sabalenka shone brighter than Naomi Oaska (and her dress) on Monday night under the Court Philippe Chatrier lights and now looks every inch the title favourite.
With rivals such as Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff having fallen by the wayside, Sabalenka looks on course to claim her maiden French Open crown.
However, we have seen the Belarusian mess things up in the past with the ‘hers to lose’ tag attached so those still left in the draw are not without a chance.
I don’t see Shnaider being the one to halt the title charge, however.
She doesn’t have the same weapons as Osaka and I can see Sabalenka attacking her serve. The first delivery has won only 57% of points so far at this tournament, while she’s held serve just 70% of the time.
The problem for punters is Sabalenka is just 2/13 for victory and with angles at a premium, I’ll quickly move on.
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Flavio Cobolli (to follow)
Outright followers will have Cobolli at 11/1 heading into this one – he was our pick to win this quarter.
Given that position, there’s not a big reason to get involved again but, when I take away that element from this match, I do feel Cobolli is the most likely winner.
He’s the freshest player left in the field, having lost only one set so far, and has only really been troubled in a couple of patches against Zachary Svajda in the last round.
Cobolli has won the two previous meetings of the pair, both of which came on a hardcourt. Notably, Auger-Aliassime has broken serve just twice in the five sets they’ve played. Cobolli’s 91% hold rate is backed up by a 33% break one.
In both encounters, Cobolli’s second serve held up – win percentages of 68% and 58% – and that could be a key area in this contest, too.
Cobolli has won 59% of second-serve points so far in Paris, with Auger-Aliassime back on 48%.
Admittedly, Svajda did have some joy when he went after the ball in the second half of Monday’s match and Auger-Aliassime has some big shots in his locker too.
However, the Canadian often lacks consistency and I’d expect plenty of errors from his racquet.
If Cobolli can play at the level he’s delivered at the tournament so far, I see him winning this.
With that 11/1 bet in mind, I certainly hope that’s the case.
In the sub-markets, Cobolli out-aced FAA 3-0 in their most recent meeting – at the 2024 Canadian Masters – and he’s 5/2 to serve the most aces here.
That may be of interest to some.
Matteo Berrettini v Matteo Arnaldi (1915 BST)
It was interesting to hear Alex Zverev discuss the different conditions caused by the roof being over Court Philippe Chatrier on Tuesday.
With more showers forecast on Wednesday, it could again come into play and that would have an effect on this match.
Zverev explained how top spin wasn’t getting the ball up particularly high and that would be a concern to Berrettini, whose big forehand weapon is highly spun.
His weak backhand continues to look vulnerable and so quotes of 13/8 about Arnaldi are tempting.
The problem is the Italian must be weary.
He’s spent 17 hours and 42 minutes on court across the first four rounds – that’s the most time played to reach the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam on record (data goes back to 1991).
I’m not quite sure how he survived his match with Frances Tiafoe on Monday night – the American was virtually home and hosed in the fourth set – and I do fear hm finally running out of gas if this one goes anywhere close to deep.
For that reason, I’m not going to back the underdog.
For the record, Arnaldi is 17/2 to win in straight sets.
Posted at 17:20 BST on 02/06/26
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