After making a strong start to the French Open, our tennis man Andy Schooler previews Friday’s third-round action at Roland Garros.
French Open betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt Alex de Minaur to beat Jakub Mensik 3-0 at 13/8 (bet365)
1pt score after six games of Quentin Halys v Alex Zverev to be 3-3 at 2/1 (BOYLE Sports)
0.5pt Halys to win the first set v Zverev at 5/1 (William Hill)
Alex de Minaur v Jakub Mensik
“It’s insane to play in this weather and especially in front of the sun.”
So said Mensik after recovering from the full body cramps he suffered on court immediately after his five-set victory over Mariano Navone on Wednesday.
I think it’s fair to say he probably won’t be too enthused about playing in forecast 33C heat – higher than Wednesday’s temperature – in this contest.
There is at least the chance of some shade on Court Simonne-Mathieu but being third match on, there’s little doubt it’s going to be hot.
While Mensik was battling for four hours and 41 minutes, De Minaur had his feet up – handed a walkover by the withdrawal of Alexander Blockx.
He also cruised through his first-round match, continuing the good form he showed in Hamburg where he beat some decent claycourters in Francisco Cerundolo and Luciano Darderi.
The Australian, who played so much on this surface while growing up in Spain, will also be hugely enthused by the stranglehold he’s had on Mensik in their previous meetings.
De Minaur leads 5-0 and has won every set they’ve played bar the first. Admittedly they have yet to face off on clay but there isn’t great evidence to suggest the pattern will change.
Mensik lost heavily to Ignacio Buse in Hamburg recently and was also defeated by the out-of-sorts Alexei Popyrin in Rome.
He’s going to be physically below par here, almost certainly, and I’ll happily back De Minaur to post another straight-sets win.
I’d suggest the biggest threat to this bet might be Mensik quitting.
Quentin Halys v Alex Zverev
At no bigger than 1/16, Zverev looks very short here for a number of reasons and I feel there has to be some value in siding with Halys in some shape or form.
First of all, he struggled on return against the big-serving Halys when the pair met only a couple of months ago in Miami. That match was settled by two tie-breaks – in Zverev’s favour – but there were no breaks of serve at all.
Admittedly, the hardcourts there were fairly fast but the hot conditions in Paris mean the clay is playing quicker than you might expect.
Second, Halys is playing well at his home Slam having already beaten Mattia Bellucci and seed Ugo Humbert in straight sets. He’ll have plenty of crowd support, too.
Then there’s also the pressure factor.
The fall of Jannik Sinner on Thursday means Zverev enters round three as the title favourite and I’m not convinced that will sit well with the German, who I’m pretty sure hasn’t been in that position before. I would not be surprised were he to be a bit tight.
What will work in his favour, I suspect, is this match has been scheduled for the night session, which will slow down that Halys serve a touch.
With the temperature dropping as the match wears on, I think rather than backing Halys on the handicap or via the total-games overs (I am tempted by over 31.5), it makes sense to focus on the early part of the match.
Halys is 5/1 to win the first set which looks worth a try.
And I particularly like the 2/1 being dangled by BOYLE Sports about the score after six games being 3-3.
Given what we saw in Miami, this looks a big price.
Posted at 20:40 BST on 28/05/26
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