French Open daily tips: Today's match preview and best bets for Roland Garros, Friday June 5

French Open betting tips: Daily best bets

1pt Jakub Mensik (+5.5) to beat Alex Zverev on the game handicap at 43/50 (Unibet)

1pt Flavio Cobolli to beat Matteo Arnaldi and both players to win a set at 6/4 (BOYLE Sports)

1pt Arnaldi to serve the most aces v Cobolli at 31/20 (Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

Jakub Mensik v Alex Zverev (1330 BST)

Things couldn’t have gone much better so far at Roland Garros for Zverev.

He’s seen the red-hot favourite crash out and has barely put a foot wrong himself - losing just the one set (against Quentin Halys) en route to the last four.

During that run, he’s not had to face anyone who has beaten him in the past, which must have been good for him mentally.

Mensik is another who is yet to defeat the German, although he wasn’t that far away in Madrid just a month ago when he led by a break in their final set.

I certainly believe the Czech is capable of pushing Zverev in a way no-one else has so far at this tournament.

Admittedly, I did expect more from Rafael Jodar, who went away rather too quickly in the quarter-finals, but Mensik’s bigger weapons should ensure this is no gimme for the title favourite.

As he showed in the last round, when his game is working well, Mensik is a tough player to beat. His first serve is a key shot – it won 85% of points against Joao Fonseca, who really struggled to get into the Czech’s service games.

The forehand, which can be flaky, was firing too and if Mensik plays as he did on Tuesday night, this should be very competitive. His retrieval skills were impressive in that contest and with these two both moving well for tall men, there should be some lengthy rallies.

Zverev has seemed pretty relaxed about his position as odds-on title favourite but now we are at the business end of the tournament and if cracks are to appear, history tells us it will be now.

Time and again we’ve seen Zverev fail to produce his best tennis in the latter stages with his self-belief often questioned.

Perhaps given the lack of truly top-quality opposition left in the draw, that belief will now be there. But, at the same time, that also brings added pressure.

I certainly would not be surprised were Zverev to look a little shaky now, although you have to say if he does manage to keep playing at the level he has been, he’s a worthy favourite.

The second seed holds a clear advantage on nearly every tournament metric – service holds (92% v 80%), return games won (35% v 27%) and perhaps most significantly, second serve points won – 67% v 43% is a massive difference.

I mentioned Mensik’s second-serve weakness the other day but while he managed to win only 33% of points on his second deal against Fonseca, he was still more than good enough to win in straight sets.

I suspect that may prove more difficult to overcome here, although if that first serve is proving unreturnable again – and it did win 80% of points in the pair’s Madrid meeting – there’s a chance it may not matter.

Essentially, there are several reasons to suggest Mensik is capable of keeping this much closer than anyone else has done against Zverev over the past fortnight and I’m going to back him via the game-handicap market.

Mensik gets a 5.5 start here and with two big serves on show, it’s not hard to envisage a tie-break or two which could mean that gap is hard to close.

In the sub-markets, I did consider going low on aces.

The pair produced 19 in Madrid, a venue which has quicker conditions due to its altitude.

I wouldn’t expect so many, at least in ‘per game’ terms. The issue is the potential for this to go four or five sets and so, on this occasion, I’ll leave that alone.

Matteo Arnaldi v Flavio Cobolli (1800 BST)

The second semi-final is an all-Italian affair, one which will be played largely under lights.

It pits a weary Arnaldi against a fresh Cobolli, and that factor alone will have had an impact on the pricing – Cobolli is the 4/9 favourite.

Arnaldi has been on court for 19 hours and 42 minutes already at this tournament – it’s an Open Era record for time spent reaching a Grand Slam semi-final.

In contrast, Cobolli has lost only two sets.

Plenty of other numbers favour the 10th seed – across the five rounds so far, he has a lead of five or more percentage points in the first-serve points won, second-serve points won, service holds and return games won categories.

However, one key stat he isn’t up on is the head-to-head.

Overall, they’ve met five times (all on clay) with Arnaldi leading 3-2. It’s 1-1 at tour level with their last meeting coming here at Roland Garros 12 months ago when Cobolli won in four sets.

I would not be surprised to see something similar unfold here.

Four of those five previous meetings have seen both players win a set and that provides a potential angle.

While Cobolli is 4/9 to reach the final, you can bump it up to 6/4 by backing him to win with both players claiming a set.

Arnaldi is also playing some good stuff. He has taken down seeds Tallon Griekspoor and Frances Tiafoe, while he’s also beaten two other strong players in Stefanos Tsitsipas and Raphael Collignon.

While the time on court is a concern, Matteo Berrettini’s withdrawal after less than two sets on Wednesday evening was just what the doctor ordered for Arnaldi. After a tough first week, playing two sets in four days means he should be rested and ready to compete here.

One other market worth mentioning is ‘most aces’.

Cobolli is chalked up as the favourite but he’s never won the market in five previous attempts.

Arnaldi has served the most aces in four of their five previous matches; the other produced a tie.

Presumably how the market is priced up is due to the fact Cobolli has served more aces per game at the tournament than Arnaldi, although his lead on that metric is marginal – 0.46 to 0.4.

That’s certainly not enough to put me off having a small bet on Arnaldi to win this at 6/4.

Posted at 15:20 BST on 04/06/26

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling.

Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.