Andy Schooler previews Friday’s men’s semi-finals at the Australian Open in Melbourne.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1pt Carlos Alcaraz to beat Alex Zverev 3-0 and Jannik Sinner to beat Novak Djokovic 3-0 at 2.96/1 (Sporting Index, Spreadex)
Carlos Alcaraz v Alex Zverev (0330 GMT)
It’s fair to say this hasn’t been a classic edition of the Australian Open, certainly on the men’s side.
There have been few tight battles, while the pre-tournament concerns about the dominance of Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner look to be being born out.
If the pair meet on Sunday we may well get a memorable final but that should not mask the worry that having no-one truly challenging is bad for the game in general.
Friday’s semi-finals actually pits the pair’s two closest rivals against them – Zverev is the world number three, while Novak Djokovic, who meets Sinner (see below), is at four in the rankings.
So, we should get a good litmus test of just how far ahead of the rest (or otherwise) the Big Two are.
The good news for Zverev is he has managed to hold his own in his series with Alcaraz, which stands at 6-6. Even better for the German is that it’s 5-3 on hardcourts, although on outdoor hard it’s Alcaraz who has the edge, 3-2.
One of those meetings came here in Melbourne two years ago when Zverev landed the upset with a four-set win.
However, since that match, Alcaraz has won three of four, with Zverev’s sole win coming indoors in the fast conditions of Turin – ideal for his big serve.
The fact it plays pretty quick in Melbourne – and that this match is taking place in the afternoon – boosts the German’s chances but I’m not convinced he’s playing well enough to live with Alcaraz right now.
Zverev has lost a set in four of his five matches so far at Melbourne Park, while Alcaraz has cruised through without dropping one at all.
Alex de Minaur did test him early on in the quarter-finals but once he got on top, Alcaraz gave the Aussie little chance and his belief crumbled.
Zverev has been accused of a lack of belief in big matches in the past, often going into his shell. He’ll likely need to be red-lining it here and we’ve rarely seen him able to deliver that against the very best in the biggest matches.
He tried coming forward plenty against Learner Tien and will probably need to do so again, although it’s a dangerous tactic against a shotmaker as good as Alcaraz, who has always been happy to bring players to the net with his devilish drop shots.
Interestingly, 11 of the 12 previous matches between the pair have been won by the player winning the first set.
And it’s also notable that five of Alcaraz’s six wins have come in straight sets – once in control, he rarely lets things slip.
I don’t write off Zverev’s chances but what I think is most likely is that Alcaraz proves his extra quality by dominating.
The straight-sets win can be backed at 5/4.
Novak Djokovic v Jannik Sinner (0830 GMT)
If Alcaraz is a hot favourite in the first semi-final then Sinner is a white-hot one in the second – no bigger than 1/11 in fact.
And this against a 10-time Australian Open champion.
While Sinner is ‘only’ 6-4 up on the head-to-head, he’s won the last five, including the last nine sets. Across those five matches, he’s been broken only four times, while when the duo met here in 2024, Sinner didn’t have to face a break point. In contrast, Sinner has broken 17 times in the same period.
It seems strange to say it given he’s one of the greatest returners of all-time, but Djokovic’s big struggle in this match-up has been getting into the Sinner serve with the Italian having been able to control points from the get-go.
I see no reason for that pattern to change here.
Djokovic is extremely lucky to be here – he was outplayed for two sets by Lorenzo Musetti on Wednesday only for his opponent to then retire due to injury. The Serb also had to receive treatment for a foot blister – and we saw last season how he regularly turned up at this stage of a major not fully fit. He duly never really competed.
To be fair, Sinner has also enjoyed a huge stroke of luck at this tournament.
He was wobbling, literally, against Elliot Spizzirri before the heat-stress rule saved him. With a short break and the roof closed, Sinner recovered and won in four sets. It remains the only set he’s lost in Melbourne.
The temperature isn’t getting above 30C on Friday so that shouldn’t be an issue and while there have been a couple of other moments when Sinner hasn’t looked 100% physically, it hasn’t stopped him steamrolling through the field.
I see him pulling Djokovic around the court here and using that first strike to dominate.
Unless Djokovic is somehow able to flick the switch and produce something from the past – and, to be fair, he did so against Alcaraz in last year’s quarter-final – a familiar fate awaits him.
The straight-sets win is a 8/11 shot.
I know it doesn’t take too much for the set bets to go wrong so while I’m not ready to get with such short prices in a semi-final, I do think two quick matches are the most likely outcome so will double them up which gives us a price of just shy of 3/1.
Posted at 12:00 GMT on 29/01/26
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