Having had a 50/1 shot placed in Rome, Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP action in Hamburg and Geneva…
Tennis betting tips: Hamburg Open & Geneva Open
0.5pt e.w. Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Bitpanda Hamburg Open at 28/1 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
0.5pt e.w. Vit Kopriva in the Bitpanda Hamburg Open at 100/1 (BetVictor, BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
1pt e.w. Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Gonet Geneva Open at 20/1 (General)
Bitpanda Hamburg Open
- Hamburg, Germany (outdoor clay)
On the face of it, staging a 500-level tournament the week before a Grand Slam doesn’t seem the greatest idea.
Yet organisers will be pretty happy with their field this year, having attracted seven of the world’s top 20 to Hamburg.
Many of them are short on wins and so will probably want to get plenty under their belt this week – Felix Auger-Aliassime, Ben Shelton and Alex de Minaur all fall into this category – although I’m always wary of the top guys not wanting to push themselves too hard in a week such as this.
After all, they’ll all be keen for a deep run at the forthcoming French Open and so playing solidly for three successive weeks might not be the best idea in the world.
We’ve seen plenty of times that once a player is happy with their game and they’ve had a few wins, they pick up a niggle, withdraw and head off to practise at the more important event.
Certainly I’m not keen on backing any of the aforementioned trio at fairly short prices.
Indeed, I’m actually ready to oppose top seed Auger-Aliassime, who looks to have a tricky first-round encounter against VIT KOPRIVA.
Admittedly, FAA did make the semis here last year but, 12 months on, his form isn’t great – he’s gone just 3-3 during the claycourt season to date and arrives here having won just one of his last four, that against the world number 124.
In contrast, Kopriva has enjoyed his time on this surface in 2026.
The Czech really made his mark on the ATP Tour for the first time during the South American ‘Golden Swing’, reaching the quarter-finals in Buenos Aires and semis – at this 500 level - in Rio.
Since moving back to Europe, Kopriva has made the quarters in Munich and the last 16 in Madrid, where he toppled Andrey Rublev.
It would be good to see a few more top-20 wins on his CV but as well as beating Rublev, Kopriva has taken hardcourt sets off Taylor Fritz and Alexander Bublik this season.
His game is more suited to the sluggish conditions that will likely be on show this week than Auger-Aliassime and if he does land the early upset, which is more than possible, his odds of 100/1 will be an awful lot shorter.
I think he’s worth a punt to small stakes.
Down in the bottom half, I’ll take on Shelton (lost his openers in Madrid and Rome) and De Minaur (lost three in a row, all to wild cards or qualifiers) by siding with TOMAS MARTIN ETCHEVERRY.
The Argentine won that 500 event in Rio, playing in slow conditions, earlier in the season and he’s shown some decent signs more recently in Europe, too.
Etcheverry took a set off Carlos Alcaraz in Monte Carlo, while it took the in-form Arthur Fils to stop him in Barcelona.
Admittedly, losing from a set up in Rome to Mattia Bellucci was a disappointment but that early defeat also means he should want matches this week.
Not a realistic contender at Roland Garros, I don’t see him holding anything back for Paris, while another positive is he’s gone well in this week of the season before, making the final in Lyon a couple of years ago.
The presence of Tommy Paul in his section of the draw is a bit of a worry – Paul beat Etcheverry easily in Houston last month – but the conditions here will be much different to those found at the Texan tournament.
While I’m far from convinced about my selections here, I am keen to find big-price alternatives to the market leaders, for reasons outlined above.
Kopriva and Etcheverry will need things to go their way but both look to have potential. I’ll back them to small stakes.
Gonet Geneva Open
- Geneva, Switzerland (outdoor clay)
Conditions in Geneva should be a fair bit quicker than those in Hamburg – they play 375m above sea level in Switzerland with that altitude ensuring the ball flies through the air that bit faster.
That could play into the hands of leading seeds Taylor Fritz and Alexander Bublik.
Both possess big serves which should work well in such conditions but, at the same time, neither has the form to suggest they are about to win here.
In Fritz’s case, that’s due to injury – he’s struggled with knee tendinitis for a long time now and, in a bid to combat the issue, hasn’t played since Miami almost two months ago.
That means this will be his first claycourt tournament of the season and it’s certainly not a surface which naturally fits his game. An early loss would not surprise and title odds of around 8/1 can be easily be swerved.
Bublik, meanwhile, is just 3-4 on the clay in 2026, defeats to Learner Tien and Alex Molcan hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances this week.
Casper Ruud is the seed with the best credentials – he’s won this tournament three times and has regularly used it as part of his French Open preparations.
It hasn’t damaged his chances in Paris, either – he’s a two-time finalist at Roland Garros.
However, you do wonder if this year will be a case of rinse and repeat.
For the first time, Ruud has reached the Rome final in the week prior to Geneva and with all that tennis in his legs, will he really want five more now?
I won’t be the only once unconvinced he’ll even make it to the start line here.
So, who do we back?
Well, I’ve got one player I’m ready to get onside and that’s THIAGO AGUSTIN TIRANTE.
He’s in the bottom half of the draw alongside Bublik. Learner Tien and Arthur Rinderknech are the other remaining seeds with Alejandro Tabilo having withdrawn.
None of those is to be feared on clay and Tirante holds decent claims.
He beat Flavio Cobolli and Cam Norrie in Rome recently before losing to Daniil Medvedev in the last 16. Those results followed on from earlier claycourt victories over Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton.
Tirante’s serve is a major weapon – he cranked it up to 140mph in Rome – and the Geneva altitude should make it even more potent this week.
Another who’s unlikely to be a serious contender at the forthcoming Grand Slam, I’d expect Tirante to see this as a good opportunity to reach his maiden ATP final.
At 20/1, I’m prepared to back him to do just that.
Posted at 10:00 BST on 19/04/26
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