ATP tennis betting tips: Hamburg, Gstaad & Atlanta preview
Our Andy Schooler has 11/2, 16/1 and 33/1 tips for this week's action on the ATP World Tour.
We almost continued our good run last week when 40/1 each-way shot Andrey Kuznetsov made it to the semi-finals in Bastad only to lose when favourite against Alexandr Dolgopolov.
While the site record won’t reflect it, at least backers of the bet clearly had a chance too ensure that, at the very least, they didn’t lose money.
This week the claycourters plod on in Europe, gathering up the last remaining points, money and titles on the red stuff, while something more significant happens much further away as the US Open Series gets under way in Atlanta. The countdown to the final Grand Slam of the season has begun.
So, without further ado, here’s my preview of this week’s three ATP tournaments.
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German Open, Hamburg, outdoor clay
The biggest tournament on the ATP World Tour this week is the 500-level event in Hamburg but, unlike its two rivals, it has failed to attract a single top-20 player.
It’s perhaps not surprising, therefore, to see 7/1 the field on offer and there’s clearly the potential for a big-priced winner – last year Martin Klizan claimed the title at long odds.
When I looked at the draw the first thing that seemed obvious was a weak third quarter, one led by fourth seed Gilles Simon whose form has been miserable of late.
German Philipp Kohlschreiber looks a viable proposition in the section, particularly given his much-mentioned strong record when playing in his homeland – five of his seven ATP titles have been won there.
However, I didn’t expect to see his name at the head of the market and 7/1 isn’t a price big enough to tempt me in given that he's not been at his best of late.
Instead I’m going to take a chance of Benoit Paire at 16/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral) in this quarter after he showed he’s returning to form with some good grasscourt results.
He made the semis in Stuttgart before reaching the last 16 at Wimbledon and while conditions will be much slower here, Paire has made his name on claycourts. Indeed his sole ATP title thus far came at this time of year in Bastad two years ago.
His form on them has been a tad disappointing this season but he has beaten players of the quality of Stan Wawrinka and Pablo Carreno Busta on clay in 2017.
This week he’s got the chance to play himself into the tournament, opening against Dmitiry Tursunov, who hasn’t won a set at main-tour level in more than a year, before then facing veteran Tommy Haas or the ordinary Nicolas Kicker.
Then could come a meeting with Kohlschreiber, with another reason to be concerned about the home hope is his first-round clash with the weekend’s champion in Umag, Andrey Rublev.
He took out my tip Carlos Berlocq last week and duly went all the way to the title as a lucky loser so clearly the talented youngster is flying right now.
At 33s, he’ll tempt many but I wonder how he backs up after such an unexpected week which began in the qualifying tournament. On Sunday the player himself described his week as "tough".
Instead I’m happy with Paire, albeit any bet on the Frenchman comes with something of a health warning. When he’s in the zone, he’s a force to be reckoned with; when he’s not, the wheels can come off mentally very quickly.
The seeds in the fourth quarter don’t worry me too much after a woeful display from Pablo Cuevas in Bastad last week and Diego Schwartzman faltering badly in the quarter-finals there.
In the top half, number one seed Albert Ramos Vinolas looks opposable but with whom is harder to quantify.
It’s surely asking a lot for 35-year-old David Ferrer to win back-to-back after is victory in Bastad.
In Ferrer’s part of the draw, qualifier Federico Delbonis may represent some value.
Since Roland Garros he’s largely been playing at Challenger level, reaching three finals on clay and winning one of them. He’s demolished two opponents in qualifying in Hamburg and will come in full of confidence.
However, he’s never taken a set off compatriot and first-round foe Berlocq in two previous meetings and that’s enough to put me off. I’ll save my pennies for the other events.
J Safra Sarasin Swiss Open, Gstaad, outdoor clay
The draw for this tournament, which takes place in the chocolate-box setting of the Swiss Alps, immediately strikes me as top heavy.
Top seed David Goffin clearly warrants respect, although given he was still feeling the effects of a nasty ankle injury last week I believe he should be taken on.
Simply looking at course form, there are four candidates who quickly come to the fore.
Mikhail Youzhny won here in 2013 and has regularly been to the latter stages, while Thomaz Bellucci is a two-time former champion. Both, however, are struggling for form, particularly Bellucci, who arrives here having won just one of his last nine matches.
Last year’s winner Feliciano Lopez returns (he has also made two other semi-finals here), as does the man he beat in that final, Robin Haase.
Seeing Lopez win here was no great surprise given that his big serve is clearly aided by the altitude – Gstaad is more than 1,000m above sea level so the balls do fly.
Lopez is just 8/1 to repeat the trick but given he was last seen limping to defeat at Wimbledon, that’s not a price that interests me.
Haase looks more tempting at 28/1. He was also runner-up here in 2013 and made the semis the following year.
The Dutchman can be a frustrating player to back but he’s also a streaky one who, when he does enjoy a good week, can take some stopping.
Clearly he’s found those weeks fairly often here and may be worth chancing.
The bottom half definitely looks weaker and it wouldn’t surprise me if the man expected to come through it by the bookies, Roberto Bautista Agut, did so with little trouble.
However, he’s only 7/2 and has only played here twice, retiring on both occasions and never going beyond the early rounds.
The conditions are different to your normal claycourt tournament and with that in mind, Fabio Fognini looks particularly vulnerable.
The Italian volcano always looks ready to erupt and it’s easy to see one of his meltdowns coming if he struggles to control the balls. Certainly this doesn’t look the week to be backing him at 8/1.
He could easily be opposed in the third quarter with Ernests Gulbis, who beat Juan Martin Del Potro at Wimbledon to announce he means business again and only last week pushed Karen Khachanov all the way, only losing from match point up.
At 16/1, he’ll undoubtedly have his backers but a much longer shot who maybe worth chancing is Taro Daniel.
The New York-born Japanese likes the clay and has won plenty of matches on the surface at a lower level this season.
He could be a very awkward first opponent for Fognini and were he to come through that match then his odds would be nowhere near the 80/1 you can get at the time of writing.
BB&T Atlanta Open, Atlanta, outdoor hard
The summer hardcourt season gets under way this week in Georgia where the conditions are usually pretty stifling. Indeed, temperatures this week are due to regularly reach around 33C.
Since the tournament moved to is current Atlantic Station venue in 2012, it’s been dominated by one man. John Isner has won it three times, finished runner-up once (last year) and on his other visit went out in the semis.
Given he arrives this year on the back of a title win on the grass of Newport, 7/2 looks a fair price.
His fearsome serve was in good nick last week in Rhode Island where he became only the second man since 1991 to win an ATP title without facing a break point.
It has to be said that the quality of the draw there was poor though and Isner can expect a tougher time from the word go in Atlanta.
Vasek Pospisil is a possible opening foe for Isner and he’s won two of their five career meetings. The Canadian is definitely one who can go toe-to-toe with Isner on the big serves, at least on his first delivery, and has twice been to the quarter-finals here.
Of greater concern to Isner will be third seed Gilles Muller, who has the form and tournament history to attract support at 11/2 (William Hill, BoyleSports, 10Bet).
Muller made the last eight at Wimbledon where he beat Rafael Nadal, to complete a fine grasscourt season, during which his big left-handed serve wrought havoc.
The quick conditions provided this week will doubtless help his game too. They have in the past with Muller making the final in 2012 and the semis in both 2011 and 2015.
Interestingly he’s also beaten Isner in their two most recent matches.
All things considered, Muller looks worthy of support.
While it’s highly likely that one of Isner or Muller will reach the final, the top half looks much more likely to produce a big-priced finalist.
Top seed Jack Sock surely has to be taken on given his ropey form and the heat in which he’s often struggled.
Again the question which is tough to answer is who is the best man for the job?
I believe Kyle Edmund will come good again but his form has been poor of late and given he’s another who hasn’t always handled the heat, I can’t for the life of me see why the coachless Brit is 12/1.
2015 runner-up Marcos Baghdatis could easily topple Edmund in the first round and may be worth a second look at 40/1. However, the Cypriot failed to handle the hot conditions in Antalya last month, retiring in the semis. That’s a worry.
Dudi Sela could also be worth a risk in the top quarter (he could be Sock’s first opponent) and has the attacking game to prosper on fast courts, but he picked up a groin injury at Wimbledon and we don’t know just how fit he is.
Like Sela, Peter Gojowczyk is a 66/1 shot and after his run to the semis in Newport, there’s also a case to be made for the German.
The second quarter is almost an all-America battleground with Ryan Harrison, twice a semi-finalist here, heading the charge.
Taylor Fritz is another of interest though.
He skipped the claycourt season for a training block in California and you suspect that was done very much with the summer hardcourt season in mind.
The big server should like conditions here and while last year’s ATP Star of Tomorrow has now slipped out of the top 100, he’s already beaten Marin Cilic and Paire in Indian Wells this season, another venue where his serve is a big weapon.
Fritz, a finalist in Memphis last season, has already shown that like many of his compatriots he seems to play his best tennis on home soil and in what looks an open section, 33/1 (BetVictor) looks worth a small poke.
Where to watch on TV: Hamburg - Sky Sports; Atlanta - Eurosport
Posted at 0815 BST on 24/07/17.
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