Free tennis betting tips: Andy Schooler previews the NextGen ATP Finals in Milan

Despite what Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have achieved this season, the Big Four’s dominance will end at some point.

Sensing a popularity problem the ATP has created the NextGen Finals to provide a showcase platform for the game’s rising stars and the inaugural event will take place this week in Milan on an indoor hardcourt.

Like the ATP Finals, which follow in London next week, it will be played with a round-robin format, the top two in each group of four progressing to the knockout semi-finals.

The best eight players of the season aged 21 or under qualify – the one issue being it’s actually eight of the top nine with Alex Zverev (already world number three) opting not to play. He will instead focus solely on his London debut.

A number of rule changes - and not just controversial ones involving the draw - will also be implemented as the ATP experiments. The key ones are:

• Best of five sets but first to four games wins a set (tie-break at 3-3)
• No ad rule (next point wins at deuce)
• No service lets (play continues off a net cord)
• No line judges (Hawk-eye making all decisions)
• 25-second shot clock on court to ensure swift matches
• End-of-set coaching allowed (via a headset)

Here’s my look at the field…

Group A

Andrey Rublev

Odds – Title: 5/1 Group: 9/4

Ranking: 37

2017 ATP win-loss record: 18-16

2017 best performances: W Umag, QF US Open, QF Beijing, QF Halle

Recent form: R1 Paris, R1 Vienna, R1 Moscow, R2 Shanghai, QF Beijing, R2 Chengdu

Record v group opponents:

v Shapovalov - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Chung - overall: 0-1; hard: 0-1; 2017: 0-1
v Quinzi - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0

The highest-ranked player in the field after an impressive second half of the season. Victory on the clay of Umag, where he beat both Fabio Fognini and Paolo Lorenzi, was probably the key. He went on to defeat Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin (both of whom will be at next week’s ATP Finals in London) en route to the last eight of the US Open. However, the Russian has failed to replicate such form in the closing stages of the season and he arrives here having won only three of his last 11 matches.

Denis Shapovalov

Odds – Title: 4/1 Group: 15/8

Ranking: 51

2017 ATP win-loss record: 11-11

2017 best performances: R4 US Open, SF Montreal, 2 Challenger titles

Recent form: Paris R1, Basel R2, Antwerp R1, Shanghai R1

Record v group opponents:

v Rublev - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Chung - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Quinzi - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0

It’s been some year for the 18-year-old. He announced his name to the world by blasting a ball in anger into an umpire’s eye during a Davis Cup tie against Great Britain back in February but only a few months later he was making headlines for the right reasons, beating both Juan Martin Del Potro and Rafael Nadal in Montreal as he became the youngest-ever Masters 1000 semi-finalist. He followed that up with a run to the last 16 of the US Open – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga among his victims – but since then it’s been downhill. Has struggled indoors with very few wins at tour-level on his record. A huge talent though with a strong serve – he holds 83 per cent of the time which is the best record of those here - and groundstrokes to match. Will want conditions fairly quick though and that seems unlikely.

Hyeon Chung

Odds – Title: 7/2 Group: 6/4

Ranking: 54

2017 ATP win-loss record: 24-18

2017 best performances: SF Munich, QF Barcelona, QF Winston-Salem, L16 Montreal

Recent form: R2 Paris, R2 Basel, R2 Stockholm, R2 Shanghai

Record v group opponents:

v Rublev - overall: 1-0; hard: 1-0; 2017: 1-0
v Shapovalov - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Quinzi - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0

The South Korean heads into this event as favourite and given some of the wins on his record, you can see why. Alex Zverev, Sam Querrey and David Goffin have all been beaten, while in more recent weeks Roberto Bautista Agut, Paolo Lorenzi and Mischa Zverev have been added to the list, showing Chung’s form is not as poor as a string of second-round losses perhaps suggests. Easily holds the best returns stats of those here, breaking serve 35 per cent of the time.

Gianluigi Quinzi

Odds – Title: 25/1 Group: 10/1

Ranking: 306

2017 ATP win-loss record: 1-1

2017 best performances: R2 Marrakech

Recent form: Hasn’t played since August, bar his weekend play-off win

Record v group opponents:

v Rublev - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Shapovalov - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Chung - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0

Only in the field as the local wild card. To be fair he at least earn his way in, winning a play-off in recent days, but Quinzi looks out of his depth here. Has only played one ATP main-draw tournament this season and beaten only one top-100-ranked player in 2017. He’ll likely need to beat two here if he’s to get out of his group and that seems unlikely.

Group B

Karen Khachanov

Odds – Title: 13/2 Group: 5/2

Ranking: 45

2017 ATP win-loss record: 25-29

2017 best performances: SF Halle, R4 Roland Garros, QF Barcelona, QF Hamburg

Recent form: R1 Paris, R1 Vienna, R1 Shanghai, R2 China, R2 Chengdu

Record v group opponents:

v Coric – overall: 0-1; hard: 0-1; 2017: 0-1
v Donaldson – overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Medvedev – overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0

Cracked the top 30 earlier this season (he is the only player in this field to have hit such heights) after a good claycourt campaign. Also made the semis on grass in Halle but since stepping off the clay in late summer, the Russian has undoubtedly struggled. Has won just four of 13 matches in that period.

Borna Coric

Odds – Title: 9/2 Group: 7/4

Ranking: 48

2017 ATP win-loss record: 21-25

2017 best performances: W Marrakech, QF Madrid, QF Winston-Salem

Recent form: R2 Paris, R2 Basel, R1 Moscow, QR1 Shanghai, QR2 Beijing, R1 Chengdu, R1 St Petersburg

Record v group opponents:

v Khachanov – overall: 1-0; hard: 1-0; 2017: 1-0
v Donaldson – overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Medvedev - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0

Coric is a player who has been rather feast or famine this season so it will be interesting to see how he respond should he lose in the group stage. Catch him on a good week and he’s a big threat – he won in Marrakech on the clay and also made the last eight in Madrid where he defeated then-number one Andy Murray. However, there have been too many early exits on his record this year, plenty of them recently. He has gone just 5-8 since the US Open. Does have experience on his side though. Having turned pro in 2013, he has already played more than 150 matches at main tour level – more than any of his rivals this week.

Jared Donaldson

Odds – Title: 9/1 Group: 100/30

Ranking: 55

2017 ATP win-loss record: 21-22

2017 best performances: QF Cincinnati, QF Chengdu, R4 Miami

Recent form: QR1 Paris, R1 Basel, R1 Antwerp, R2 Shanghai, R1 Beijing, QF Chengdu

Record v group opponents:

v Khachanov – overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Coric - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Medvedev - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0

Showed strong hardcourt form outdoors earlier in the year and also, unusually for an American, is more than competent on clay. However, his results have taken a turn for the worse since the tour headed indoors which has to be a concern coming to Milan.

Daniil Medvedev

Odds – Title: 15/2 Group: 11/4

Ranking: 65

2017 ATP win-loss record: 22-24

2017 best performances: RU Chennai, SF Eastbourne, QF Cincinnati, QF Queen’s

Recent form: 1QR Paris, QF Brest Challenger, QF Moscow, Shanghai R1, Tokyo R1, St Petersburg R1

Record v group opponents:

v Khachanov – overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Coric - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0
v Donaldson - overall: 0-0; hard: 0-0; 2017: 0-0

Started the year with a bang, reaching the final in Chennai before then pushing Novak Djokovic in a Davis Cup rubber. Enjoyed a fine grasscourt season, reaching the quarter-finals at Queen’s Club before beating Stan Wawrinka at Wimbledon. Has posted nine top-50 wins, the latest being Pablo Carreno Busta indoors in Moscow which is very good. However, concerns remain mentally as the young Russian is prone to a meltdown when things aren’t going his way. Would probably like conditions a bit quick than those predicted too.

Verdict

I find myself in agreement with the bookies that Hyeon Chung is a worthy favourite here at a best price of 4/1.

The stats show his return game is the best in the field and with GreenSet court surface reported to be on the slow side, the South Korean should be able prove his ability.

Notably he also holds a strong tie-break record this season. While his ability to break means he plays fewer than some of his contemporaries, a 7-3 win-loss record in breakers is good.

With tie-breaks coming at 3-3 this week rather than 6-6, this could be a factor which works in Chung’s favour.

He’s in the group with Quinzi, who I’m prepared to write off given he’s ranked almost 250 places lower than the rest of this field, and that should make qualifying for the semi-finals much easier.

Rublev and Shapovalov are both fine players but neither is in form and both will see a major weapon – the serve – blunted by the conditions.

The other group looks a lot tougher to call. I’m tempted to side with Borna Coric’s experience but his price as second favourite to win the title puts me off somewhat given he’s had many disappointing weeks this season.

Instead, I’ll back Daniil Medvedev, a player who has proven his ability to beat top-50 players this season with a number of high-profile scalps on his record.

It would seem that conditions would ideally be a bit faster for the Russian, who enjoyed such a good grasscourt campaign, but it’s interesting to see that he has made the quarter-finals in Moscow in each of the past two years. The courts play pretty slow there too.

Medvedev has also reached the last eight indoors in Montpellier and Marseille this year, as well as fully testing Novak Djokovic in the Davis Cup.

He’s another with a positive tie-break record (11-8), another factor which will see me have a small interest in the outright betting at 15/2.

Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports

Recommended bets

1pt Hyeon Chung to win the title at 4/1

1pt Daniil Medvedev to win the title at 15/2

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Posted at 2100 GMT on 06/11/17.

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