Caroline Garcia v Elise Mertens
With her US Open victory over top seed Karolina Pliskova and her first-round win here over Anett Kontaveit, Garcia has landed a decent chunk for this column in recent weeks.
And at 13/5 to win this match, her chances appear to have been underestimated again.
As evidenced by those recent eyecatching victories, Garcia’s game is in good shape at present and while she’s not yet back to the form that took her into the world’s top 10 a few years ago, the signs are certainly that she’s heading back towards such heights.
Mertens has plenty of claycourt wins under her belt, including two in straight sets so far at Roland Garros, but she has a poor record against the game’s top players. Again, Garcia isn’t there yet but her current form is certainly well above her ranking of 45.
It’s not long since Mertens took a 6-1 6-0 beating from Victoria Azarenka at the US Open so I believe that if Garcia can get on top early, pushing her opponent back with her power off the ground, then Mertens’ confidence may not be the highest.
At 13/5, the home hope looks worth trusting once again.
Simona Halep v Amanda Anisimova
Anisimova’s 6-2 6-4 victory over Halep at last year’s Roland Garros was one of the tournament’s big upsets and really propelled the teenage American onto the WTA scene.
She’s not yet pushed on as much as many expected, although there is a good reason for her current ranking of 28 – her father died last summer which obviously knocked her back.
Anisimova appears to be relishing her return to the scene of last year’s semi-final run having dropped only four games in her two matches so far, despite the heavier conditions, and I feel she can at least test Halep – my outright pick for the title.
Last year she managed to push Halep back with her groundstrokes and while the Romanian’s defence is teak tough, offering up anything short with her retrieval was punished by Anisimova coming into the court.
OK, the element of surprise is now gone but it’s a gameplan which is still capable of delivering.
The question is which market to choose.
Anisimova is 6/4 to win a set which seems OK, but I like her on the game handicap more.
Here she is 10/13 with a 5.5-game start.
Given I can see her claiming a set, this looks the way to go.
Posted at 2135 BST on 01/10/20
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