Timeform on where Willie Mullins likes to campaign his best horses

Watch out for novice hurdlers at Tramore

Tramore's profile has been raised in recent seasons by Al Boum Photo using the track's big-race on New Year's Day as a stepping stone to winning the Gold Cup. What's perhaps less well known, though, is Mullins' extraordinary strike-rate with hurdling debutants at the track. Since the start of the 2015/16 season, 13 of the 21 hurdling debutants Mullins ran at Tramore were successful - a strike-rate of 61.9%. Penhill, a subsequent dual Cheltenham Festival winner, made his hurdles debut at Tramore, while Saint Roi, Mullins' leading Champion Hurdle hope, is another notable course winner, though he does not contribute to the above figure as he was not making his hurdling debut.

Mullins' overall strike-rate with hurdling debutants in the period in question is a massive 41% and other tracks where he fares especially well include Clonmel (13/25), Gowran (8/15), Kilbeggan (7/9), Naas (7/12) and Sligo (7/12).

Good chasing prospects are often sent to Gowran Park and Navan

Mullins has been successful with five of his 11 chasing debutants at Gowran Park, his local track, since the start of the 2015/16 season and it is notable that they have achieved a lofty average Timeform rating of 139. Bellshill, the 2019 Irish Gold Cup winner, started out at Gowran Park, while Great Field and Cilaos Emery also ran to a high level on their chase debut at the course.

Six of the 14 chasing debutants that Mullins has sent out at Navan since the start of the 2015/16 have won. That is in line with the 42% strike-rate Mullins enjoys across all courses with horses making their first start over fences, but what is notable at Navan is the quality of the horses in question.

Mullins has used a 2m1f beginners' chase at the track in November as a launchpad with stars such as Vautour, Douvan, Min and Al Boum Photo. Cash Back, a subsequent Irish Arkle runner-up, gave Mullins a sixth winner of the race in the last seven years when successful 12 months ago and there will be plenty of interest in whoever he runs on Sunday. Elixir d'Ainay, a Grade 1 runner-up over hurdles last season with the physique to fare well over fences, holds an entry in that beginners' chase.

Black Hercules, Footpad and Melon are other classy sorts that started off over fences at Navan.

There is no tried-and-tested route to the Champion Bumper

Mullins has won the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival ten times, but it would seem that there is no favoured route to the Festival as those ten winners started their careers under Rules at six different tracks. Three started at Leopardstown and Punchestown, while Fairyhouse Gowran, Thurles and Tralee (closed in 2008) have also been used on the road to the Festival.

Most of Mullins’ winning bumper debutants since 2015/16 have come at Punchestown (10/33) and Fairyhouse (9/30), but Leopardstown (6/12) is the pick on average Timeform rating (99). Carefully Selected and Allaho are among Mullins' better horses to have started out at Leopardstown in recent years.

Ballinrobe may be one of Ireland's smaller tracks but it is one where Mullins is happy to send a horse on debut. He has had seven winning bumper debutants from 15 runners there since 2015/16.

Handicap hurdlers at Killarney and Galway are worth noting

Mullins has won three handicap hurdles over the last four Cheltenham Festivals, with Arctic Fire in the 2017 County Hurdle, Bleu Berry in the 2018 Coral Cup and Saint Roi in the County Hurdle again last season. However, he had more than one entry in all those races and saddled three of the first four in the latest County Hurdle. The mob-handed approach to the Festival’s handicaps has its rewards, but with those three winners coming from a total of 63 runners in handicap hurdles at Cheltenham since the start of the 2015/16 season, it’s not a particularly punter-friendly strike-rate.

Killarney is a track where Mullins does show a level-stake profit (8.75) with his handicap hurdlers, sending out six winners from 27 runners at a strike-rate of 22.2%. The course where Mullins has won the most handicap hurdles since the start of the 2015/16 season, though, is Galway with 10 winners from 67 runners (14.9% strike-rate).

He has won three of the last five Galway Hurdles, including the latest one with Aramon who put up a high-class performance to prevail under 11-10, and four of the last six editions of the Galway Festival’s valuable 2m7f handicap hurdle. The latest winner of the latter contest, Great White Shark, went on to win the Cesarewitch, emulating stablemate Low Sun who achieved the same double two years earlier.

A handicap chase he has dominated at the Punchestown Festival

For all Mullins’ success at the Cheltenham Festival, he has drawn a blank in the meeting’s handicap chases in the last five years from 19 runners. That’s more a reflection, though, that the stable’s priorities tend to lie elsewhere, well-handicapped chasers not the stock-in-trade for a yard whose runners over fences, as already shown above, are often geared towards the graded-chase route pretty much from day one of their chasing careers. As a result, the stable’s returns in handicap chases at some of Ireland’s major tracks, just like Cheltenham, are rather meagre – one win from 28 runners at Fairyhouse, and one from 39 at Leopardstown. That one winner at Fairyhouse was an important one, however, as Burrows Saint gave Mullins a long-awaited first victory in the Irish Grand National in 2019.

Punchestown is where the stable has had most success in handicap chases, its 55 runners there resulting in 8 wins (14.6% strike-rate) and a level-stakes profit of 10.25. There is one race in particular at the Punchestown Festival in which Mullins’ record is second to none. He has won four of the last five renewals of the valuable 2m5f novices’ handicap chase, including the last couple with Kemboy and Real Steel who have both gone on to success in graded company.