What to expect from week of Guineas trials at Newmarket and Newbury?

The coming week sees perhaps the most abrupt change of focus in the entire racing calendar. No sooner has the last horse crossed the line in the Grand National than thoughts turn quickly to the upcoming Guineas trials at Newmarket and Newbury, the first classics themselves just three weeks away after all.

The Lincoln lit the fuse on the Flat season, but it’s been a slow burn over the last few weeks. Now though, with racing returning to HQ for the Craven Meeting – yes, that’s still the official title, not ‘Festival’ - there’s a feeling that the season proper is about to get underway and even the weather, at least for a few days last week, seemed in sync with the coming shift in emphasis towards the Flat.

But what are the odds that we’ll actually see a Guineas winner in the coming week?

Looking at the fillies first of all, five of the last ten 1000 Guineas winners skipped a trial altogether and won their classic first time out. Desert Flower did just that as the even-money favourite for Charlie Appleby in a substandard field last season, following a precedent set by four of Aidan O’Brien’s winners since 2016, namely Minding, Hermosa, Love and Mother Earth.

The common denominator with all those fillies, Desert Flower included, was that they were already Group 1 performers, if not Group 1 winners, at two. That said, Love didn’t have much choice about having a prep run or not, her 1000 Guineas win coming in June at the belated start to the 2020 Flat season due to Covid.

The odd one out among O’Brien’s 1000 Guineas winners since 2016 was his 2017 winner Winter. Unlike better-fancied stablemate Rhododendron whom she beat into second, Winter did have a prep run that spring, beaten a head by another Ballydoyle filly Hydrangea in the 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown. That was Winter’s first start for O’Brien who clearly felt she needed testing in a higher grade before her classic assignment as she’d signed off at two for David Wachman with a win in a maiden at Dundalk.

The other 1000 Guineas winner in the last ten years to have had an ‘offshore’ preparation was Godolphin’s Mawj for Saeed bin Suroor in 2023. The Duchess of Cambridge Stakes winner at two, she won both her starts at Meydan early on at three before her Guineas victory.

That leaves three fillies in the last ten years who have taken in a traditional domestic 1000 Guineas trial but none of the trio had evidently impressed punters in their prep runs. Billesdon Brook, fourth for Richard Hannon in the 2018 Nell Gwyn at Newmarket, showed massive improvement to win the 1000 Guineas at 66/1, while Elmalka, third for Roger Varian in the 2024 Fred Darling, was a 28/1-chance for her 1000 Guineas victory which was just the third start of her life.

Despite winning the Nell Gwyn beforehand, Cachet was also largely overlooked when taking her chance in the 2022 1000 Guineas at 16/1, but George Boughey’s filly became the first since Speciosa 16 years earlier to complete the Nell Gwyn-1000 Guineas double.

Here’s the record of Nell Gwyn winners in the 1000 Guineas over the last ten years, ‘X’ being the year the race wasn’t run and a dash meaning the winner didn’t contest the 1000 Guineas: 5363X7100-.

The two third places were gained by Daban (2017) and Qabala, the latter starting favourite for Varian in 2019. Like the stable’s later winner Elmalka, she’d had just the two runs before the 1000 Guineas.

While the recent record of Nell Gwyn winners in the 1000 Guineas is a little patchy, it’s certainly better than that of Fred Darling winners in the same timeframe: --00X590-9. That fifth place came from Alcohol Free, the best recent Fred Darling winner, who went on to win the Coronation Stakes and Sussex Stakes later that season.

The best filly in last year’s Fred Darling field turned out to be third-placed Time For Sandals who went back to sprinting afterwards, winning the Commonwealth Cup. But you have to go back to 1999 for the last time the Fred Darling winner went on to win the 1000 Guineas. That was Wince for Henry Cecil and she was the fourth filly that decade to complete the double after stablemate Bosra Sham and, earlier, the John Dunlop-trained pair Salsabil and Shadayid.

Moving on to the colts, six of the last ten 2000 Guineas winners went straight there without a trial or prep run, including the Ballydoyle trio Churchill, Saxon Warrior and Magna Grecia.

Charlie Appleby used the same approach with Coroebus in 2022, but his last two winners Notable Speech and Ruling Court followed less trodden paths into the 2000 Guineas. Unraced at two, Notable Speech won all three of his races at Kempton early in the year before a successful turf debut in the 2000 Guineas, while Ruling Court, twice-raced at two, was given a bit more experience by winning the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas at Meydan beforehand.

Jim Bolger used the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas trial for his 2021 2000 Guineas winner Poetic Flare, though like Cachet, he was another example of a trial winner starting at long odds next time, he too 16/1 when successful at Newmarket.

Therefore, only one of the last ten 2000 Guineas winners has contested one or other of the two main domestic trials, the Craven Stakes or the Greenham Stakes. Even then, we’re using the word ‘contested’ very loosely in the case of the 2023 winner Chaldean who was bumped and unshipped Frankie Dettori leaving the stalls in the Greenham. Andrew Balding’s other 2000 Guineas winner, Kameko, won the June running in 2020 when there were no trials.

The last Greenham winner to go on to win the 2000 Guineas was Frankel in 2011 and it's further back still to the last Craven winner to follow up in the 2000 Guineas which was Haafhd in 2004.

Only four of the nine Greenham winners in the last ten years have even contested the 2000 Guineas, with the only one to go close being Barney Roy for Richard Hannon who was runner-up to Churchill in 2017.

But, run over the same course and distance as the 2000 Guineas itself, winners of the Craven Stakes have a stronger record in the first classic even if the race hasn’t thrown up the 2000 Guineas winner for a while. Here are their form figures in the 2000 Guineas: 0633X22032.

Six of the last seven Craven winners have therefore been placed. They include Masar, who started favourite for the 2018 2000 Guineas on the strength of his nine-length win in the Craven, and while he could only manage third behind Saxon Warrior in the 2000 Guineas, his classic victory came later instead in the Derby with Saxon Warrior back in fourth.

Charlie Appleby has won the Craven twice more since Masar, with Master of The Seas and Native Trail both going on to finish second in the 2000 Guineas. Master of The Seas went closer than any recent Craven winner to following up in the 2000 Guineas, with Poetic Flare getting up on the line to beat him a short head. A year later in 2022, Native Trail was the 5/4 favourite to stretch his unbeaten record to six races in the 2000 Guineas but found stablemate Coroebus three quarters of a length too good.

And then there was Field of Gold last year, an impressive Craven winner and the 15/8 favourite to follow up in the 2000 Guineas, but who conceded first run to Ruling Court who found the better turn of foot initially and held on for a half-length win.

If recent years are anything to go by then, we probably won’t be seeing a 1000 or 2000 Guineas winner at Newmarket or Newbury in the coming days. The Fred Darling is certainly living on past glories as a meaningful trial, but there’s a good chance the Craven will throw up a colt capable of making his presence felt on the first Saturday in May and it remains a pivotal week in the racing calendar.

More from Sporting Life

• Free bets
• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.