With the National Hunt season back in full swing Ben Linfoot resurrects ‘Weights & Measures’, his weekly look at the adjusted handicap ratings.
The Cheltenham November Meeting had everything. Star performers, flashy novices, tight finishes, fancied favourites, shock outsiders, bridle monkeys and brave battlers. But what has the handicapper made of it all?
I’ve covered the main amendments below, from Finian’s Oscar’s 155 rating to the 5lb rise for Splash Of Ginge’s BetVictor Gold Cup success, with Sunday’s card off limits, of course, as they will be published next Tuesday.
Throughout the meeting the ground was a big talking point. Officially ‘Good to Soft’ on the Friday, jockeys and trainers were pretty unanimous in their assessment that conditions were riding much more testing than that.
Then we had 12mm of rain on the Saturday, an amount that seemed to take the forecasters by surprise, and that had a big effect on the rest of the weekend, culminating in Brian Hughes’ Sunday criticism live on ITV that ‘the track should be ashamed of themselves, watering so much. That’s horrendous ground.’
Cheltenham Clerk of the Course Simon Claisse confirmed after the criticism that the track hadn’t been watered since the ‘Showcase Meeting’ in October and that the ground had turned soft and heavy purely on the back of the sustained Saturday downpour.
The unexpected rainfall undoubtedly had an impact on Saturday’s results, though, none more so than in the feature BetVictor Gold Cup.
BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap, Grade 3, Saturday, 2m4 ½f
- 1st Splash Of Ginge >>>> Up 5lb to 139
- 2nd Starchitect >>>> Up 4lb to 148
- 3rd Le Prezien >>>> Up 2lb to 152
- 4th Ballyalton >>>> Remains on 143
Splash Of Ginge was a shock winner, sent off at 25/1, after completely losing his way over fences at the start of last season. Well beaten in three chases at the start of the campaign, Nigel Twiston-Davies reverted to hurdles with him and it immediately did the trick with a win at Haydock. He stayed over timber after that and his form tailed off, exactly has it had done over fences.
He returned to chasing on November 3 and was well beaten by Guitar Pete at Wetherby, hence the big odds (he was 50s in the morning) for the BetVictor. The rain was in his favour though – his Haydock hurdles win and best victory over fences had come on soft – and he was well treated on course form from the 2014-15 season.
In the 2014 Caspian Caviar he fell four out when looking a possible winner and that was from a mark of 145, the same rating he won off two-and-a-half weeks later, back at Cheltenham again, on New Year’s Day. On Saturday, off 134, he put it all together, travelling well in a prominent position before going two lengths clear between the second last and the last.
Starchitect threatened to overhaul him up the hill, but Ginge had enough in reserve to hold him by a neck. Whether he can follow up this win off 5lb higher in the future is debatable, as there’s very much a feeling that this was his day. His profile suggests he’s not one to trust, with just one win in 19 starts preceding Saturday’s victory.
However, his confidence might well have been restored over the bigger obstacles and he’s still 6lb lower than his highest winning chasing mark. Indeed, off 139, he’s still fully a stone lower than his career-high mark, so there is plenty of wriggle room for further improvement – especially when granted testing conditions.
Starchitect is up 4lb to 148 and he’s just 2lb below his hurdles rating now, so it will be frustrating for connections that he’s just missed out on a big pot while he’s climbing up the ladder. Better jumps at the last two fences might’ve seen a different result but he does look a better chaser than hurdler and there’s room for further progression.
He doesn’t need these testing conditions by any means, even though he handles them really well, so he’s going to have chances whatever the ground wherever he turns up. The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup has already been mooted as his next target and he’ll have a good chance, but you just feel you’re getting to the no-room-for-error point with him now he’s been nudged up again.
Le Prezien goes up 2lb to 152 after finishing third and you do feel he’s got a big handicap in him. He struggled a bit early on with his jumping and took time to warm to the task, but a sweeping manoeuvre before the second last got him into contention but he couldn’t quite keep on terms with the front two.
He’s only six and is still improving. He could be good enough for graded races but, given his connections, handicaps will be targeted before then and he has plenty of options. Stepping up to three miles could open up even more and I wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed that far. He has to be on the radar wherever he turns up throughout the season.
The ground went right against Ballyalton who prefers better conditions and, considering he lost a shoe as well, he did really well to plug on for fourth. This performance showed he hasn’t regressed since a tendon injury and with the handicapper leaving him alone he’ll be worth considering when he encounters more favourable ground.
Splash Of Ginge wins the BetVictor Gold Cup at @CheltenhamRaces ahead of Starchitect! pic.twitter.com/WfOhJCOTxb
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) November 18, 2017
Contrasting routes for Sections rivals?
- Finian’s Oscar >>>> Up 4lb to 155
- Movewiththetimes >>>> Down 1lb to 145
For more than a fleeting moment between two out and the last it looked as though Movewiththetimes might have Finian’s Oscar’s measure in the Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase on Friday. He jumped into the lead two out, was still ahead at the last and he traded at 1.44 on Betfair with Finian’s matched at 3.5 at his biggest in-play odds.
But Finian’s Oscar ultimately prevailed by over two lengths, doing well to find a change of gear when asked after the last to put the race to bed in the style of a top notcher. He was giving 8lb to the field and they went slow, so this was an impressive performance all things considered.
A rating of 155 after just two chase starts is big. For some recent perspective, it’s exactly the same rating Yorkhill had going into last season’s JLT and exactly the same mark Altior had going into last season’s Arkle.
Both of those Cheltenham Festival contests are likely to be on the radar for Finian’s Oscar, but it was no surprise to hear trainer Colin Tizzard speak about the two-mile option in the aftermath of Friday’s race. He’s still 6/1 favourite generally for the JLT and twice that price (best odds) for the Arkle, but, whichever race he goes for, there's little doubt in my mind that he looks a Grade One Cheltenham Festival winner in the making.
Sky Bet Odds: Finian’s Oscar 4/1 to win ANY race at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival
In contrast, Movewiththetimes was dropped 1lb to 145 and it will be interesting to see which route connections go with him now. He jumped really well and there was no disgrace in being brushed aside by Finian’s Oscar, but whether he can make up into a Grade One novice seems unlikely.
He doesn’t have to, of course, to win at the Cheltenham Festival such are the options these days and the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase, formerly a 0-140, is a 0-145 now.
Last year Paul Nicholls found a quiet Wincanton novice to get him qualified for handicaps and he nearly pulled off the masterplan with a second place in the Betfair Hurdle. A similar route could be in the pipeline over fences and he looks the type to excel once switched to handicap company.
Improving Thomas looks Stayers’ class
- Thomas Campbell >>>> Up 10lb to 158
Nicky Henderson’s Thomas Campbell has improved bundles for being stepped up in trip to three miles this campaign and he looks to have run himself out of handicap company now (unless he runs in the Betfair Stayers' Handicap Hurdle under a 5lb penalty at Haydock on Saturday. It seems unlikely, given the quick turnaround, but being 5lb well-in connections may well be tempted).
Raised 20lb already this season on the back of two wins around Cheltenham over three miles and then a bit further than that on Saturday, he’s scuppered any plans his trainer had of running him in the Pertemps after he qualified for that race at the Showcase Meeting.
He travelled like a class above his rivals in Saturday’s Listed handicap and though he was headed by Anteros jumping the last it didn’t take long for jockey James Bowen to wrestle back the initiative and he won going away. The son of Yeats was also encountering testing ground for the first time and on this evidence it’s not a bother to him.
The Stayers’ Hurdle division doesn’t look the strongest below Nichols Canyon and Unowhatimeanharry, with that pair currently top of that particular tree, so it’s got to be worth testing Thomas Campbell in graded company, maybe even in something like the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December.
He’d have to step up to challenge Unowhatimeanharry if Harry Fry’s stable star turned up again at the Royal track’s festive meeting, as he’s still rated 9lb inferior, but, considering his rapid progression, it could be worth chancing him at the very top while he’s in such good form.
SKY BET ODDS: Thomas Campbell 16/1 for the Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
Click here for result & full free Racing UK video replay
Hike of the meeting
- Magic Dancer >>>> up 11lb to 124
It had to be Kerry Lee’s Magic Dancer. Unpenalised for his success in a conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle at Kempton just four days’ previously, Magic Dancer turned up at Cheltenham on the Friday and was well-backed into 100/30 favouritism to follow up.
Clearly ahead of the assessor, it looked just a case of whether he could cope with two races in five days and he definitely did, going clear by five lengths from a horse officially 6lb well-in despite hitting the last flight.
Things will be tougher for him next time, though, as the handicapper as hit him with an 11lb rise, taking him up to a rating of 124.
Click here for result & free full Racing UK video replay
Down down, you bring me down
- Mick Thonic >>>> down 4lb to 128
- Three Faces West >>>> down 3lb to 144
- Viconte Du Noyer >>>> down 2lb to 148
- Poker Play >>>> down 1lb to 130
- Click here to add any of these horses to your FREE My Stable tracker
Four sliders in the Cheltenham hit parade that could be worth monitoring in the coming weeks.
Down four… we have Mick Thonic after he finished seventh in the BetVictor Handicap Chase. He jumped much better in a prominent position before tiring on the testing ground up the hill and granted better conditions he’s becoming attractively handicapped.
Down three… we have Three Faces West after he finished third behind Perfect Candidate and Vicente in the BetVictor.com Handicap Chase on Saturday. This was his first start in 11 months and he’s entitled to come on for it, while a slight drop in trip could be a positive, too.
Down two… is Viconte Du Noyer and he’s on the radar despite showing very little in the BetVictor Gold Cup. His best two efforts came on Good to Soft last season so the testing ground looks a viable excuse and he’s back on his last winning mark now.
And down one… Poker Play, like Viconte Du Noyer a son of Martaline and the ground might’ve been soft enough for David Pipe's charge, too. He was very well backed and he travelled well on his first start since the Fred Winter. Better ground, a slight drop in trip or a combination of the two could see him in a better light and he’s very much on the radar next time out.
