Our expert panel of Matt Brocklebank, Ben Linfoot and Tony McFadden answer some of the key questions heading into the weekend's racing.
1. In reality, the race of the day could be the BetMGM Winter Oaks Fillies’ Handicap at Lingfield. What’s your angle here?
Matt Brocklebank: James Tate normally means business when booking Rossa Ryan – they have a 24% strike-rate (22-92) when teaming up for a +28.62 level stakes profit – and Saxon Warrior filly BEHIND THE SCENES looks to have plenty in her favour here. She’s seemingly been crying out for a step up to 10 furlongs, especially when an eyecatching second off this mark (87) at Kempton three starts back. She’s run well in Listed company at Dundalk at Deauville the last twice, not getting the race run to suit in France, but should get a decent pace to chase in this, and I’ll back Ryan to have her in the right spot at the right time from stall five.
Ben Linfoot: Ryan Moore has his first rides in the UK since October 25 including TWIRLING in this race for Mrs Doreen Tabor. The Coolmore connection doesn’t end there as this filly is by Churchill and there is plenty of reason to believe from her pedigree that she will improve for the step up in trip to 10 furlongs. A lightly-raced four-year-old who has had just the four runs, she has improved with each start and she has a good run at Lingfield under her belt, too. There’s every chance Moore could dominate the tempo from the front end in this and while her trainers, Simon and Ed Crisford, who won this race last year, have another good chance with Oh So Grand, it’s Twirling and her rider that catch the eye.
Tony McFadden: OH SO GRAND has a style ideally suited to the all-weather and she deployed her sharp turn of foot to good effect when scoring by a length and a quarter over this course and distance last month. That made it three wins from four starts on the all-weather (the one defeat came on debut) and her change of pace will remain an asset.
2. Give us one other horse to keep an eye out for on Lingfield’s Saturday card?
MB: AFRICAN STAR could be worth a second look on his return to the venue in the lucky last. He won a 12-furlong maiden on the turf here in August, belying odds of 80/1 in the process, and looks to be coming back to the boil after being gelded in the autumn. He was prominent throughout over a mile and three-quarters at Southwell last time, hanging left under pressure late on but ultimately beaten less than a length in fourth. Two miles should pose no problems for the son of Galileo and if Rab Havlin is able to set the fractions, Sylvester Kirk’s horse could take a bit of passing around this track.
BL: I’ll be interested to see how AL RUFAA gets on in the Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Handicap over a mile at 2.00. It hasn’t taken long for Daniel & Claire Kubler to reinvigorate this horse and he won easily at Wolverhampton two starts ago before a steadier pace undid him at Southwell last time. Still, that was a good run in third and they look likely to go a stride quicker in this, as Al Rufaa returns to Lingfield for the first time since debut. The track should suit him, with Kingman progeny having an excellent record here (33 wins from 145 runners at 22.76% in the last five years), so hopefully he can run well despite a wide draw in 11.
TM: PLANTADREAM was off the track for more than two years before making his return at Kempton last month but he shaped as if retaining plenty of ability in fifth. He again went with promise when beaten less than a length in fourth at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, flattening out inside the final furlong after looking a big danger at one point. It's possible he still needed the run a tad given how long he'd been off the track, but he should be spot on now and should go well in the mile handicap (14:00).
3. With temperatures rising into Sunday there is hope Lingfield’s Winter Million jumps card will be staged – are you for or against L’Homme Presse in the Fleur De Lys Chase?
MB: There are clearly reasons to expect this horse to be rusty and potentially sharpen up for the outing ahead of his principal target at Cheltenham, but everything about the way Venetia Williams operates suggests L’Homme Presse will be ‘screws-tight’ fit for the comeback and he’s always gone well fresh in the past too which bodes well. I like how they’ve taken their time after the setback last season and skipping the King George was probably for the best as he didn’t look in love with the track before unseating there last Christmas. Rated 170, he should take the world of beating in this company and, as it stands, I couldn’t put anyone off the pre-prep run 20/1 for the Gold Cup as he’ll likely be single figures if all goes well on Sunday.
BL: There’s no doubt L’Homme Presse looks the class angle in the race, along with Protektorat, and he comes out well at the weights after the penalties are thrown into the mix. Whether you’d want to take odds-on quotes about a horse having his first run for 391 days is another matter, especially with some in-form and race-fit horses set to take him on. With the fairly unusual 2m6f trip another factor to add to the equation my instinct is to take him on and fingers crossed this good Sunday meeting gets the green light so I have a tipping piece to write on Saturday afternoon!
TM: For. He's the class act in the line-up and his profile doesn't give much cause for concern about his effectiveness when fresh. He won a novice hurdle on his first start for the yard after a 773-day layoff and also won on his chasing debut following a 223-day break. Admittedly, those weren't stiff tests for a horse of his calibre, but winning the Rehearsal Chase off a BHA mark of 164 on his reappearance last season was no mean feat.
4. Give us one horse for the handicaps on Lingfield’s Sunday card?
MB: The Surrey National Handicap Chase should be a decent field to get stuck into following final declarations but at this stage I’ve got an eye out for ALAPHILIPPE, who is entered in the Weatherbys Hamilton Handicap Hurdle. He’s not taken to fences one bit but could easily be rejuvenated for a switch back to the smaller obstacles and he’s on a fair mark in this sphere (135) based on his neck second off 138 in the 2022 Pertemps Final, his last run in public over hurdles.
BL: I’d be tempted to have a second look at REE OKKA in the Weatherbys Hamilton Handicap Hurdle over 2m7f if he turned up for Harry Fry. He was a good, 130-rated, novice hurdler and he’s done okay over fences including close-up placed efforts at Ludlow and Chepstow in handicaps from marks of 129 and 130. Pulled up at Doncaster in December, he reverts to hurdles here from a reduced mark of 122 and it might just be a rejuvenation tactic that comes off.
TM: NURSE SUSAN stuck to her task really well when successful in a two-and-a-half mile handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last month, offering hope that she should cope with the extra three furlongs in the 14:25 at Lingfield. She has very few miles on the clock and a couple of her novice efforts suggest she could be better than her revised mark.
5. Given we’re struggling through the Big Freeze this week, have you a new Cheltenham project in your thoughts?
MB: Loads of thoughts bubbling away, including Bob Olinger ‘without the favourite’ in the Champion Hurdle and Monbeg Genius at 14/1 for the Ultima as he still looks potentially thrown in if the weather Gods are kind to him this spring (needs rain in an ideal world). Cantico is 20/1 for the Champion Bumper in a place and that will look big if all goes to plan on his second start under Rules (needs a proper pace to chase), but the one that really leaps out is FACT TO FILE at 5s for the Brown Advisory. Having him onside at 7/1 NRNB for the Turners wouldn’t be a bad move either but the Wednesday race looks most likely, and I think he could be a very short price for that after the DRF in a couple of weeks’ time. He looked top-class at Leopardstown over Christmas and could just have too many gears for a horse like Stay Away Fay on Cheltenham’s Old Course.
BL: I’m looking forward to a trip to the Dublin Racing Festival in a few weeks’ time where we will likely learn loads for Cheltenham including Willie Mullins’ Arkle pecking order. He usually goes into the Irish Arkle with multiple runners in a bid to sort them out before Cheltenham and he has seven entries for the DRF race to go to war with against Marine Nationale. Barry Connell’s horse could well strengthen his own Cheltenham claims further at Leopardstown, but I was impressed with how UNCLE PHIL went about his business at Fairyhouse and I wonder if he could throw his hat into the Arkle ring? Perhaps it will be fruitless taking on Marine Nationale, perhaps Uncle Phil is more of a Grand Annual type. Either way, he’s a horse I want to keep on the right side of.
TM: JP McManus already has a strong hand in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle with Mystical Power and Jeriko du Reponet but it wouldn't be a surprise were another strong contender to emerge in the shape of NO FLIES ON HIM. He beat subsequent Grade 1 winner Jango Baie on his only start in a point and created a very favourable impression when comfortably scoring on his hurdling debut at Leopardstown over Christmas, so it will be fascinating to see how he gets on if taking up his entry in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival.
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