Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North | Dysart Dynano verdict
Check out Graeme North's timefigure analysis of the big weekend performances and why the tapeta surface at Southwell has made an encouraging start.
Where are we now in the Sky Bet Supreme?
It will be some race if Jonbon, Constitution Hill, Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard all turn up in the Sky Bet Supreme in two months’ time, but the likelihood is that they won’t, and the Ballymore will be the bail-out option for at least one of them.
Assuming for now, however, that they do all turn up, how does the ‘new kid on the block’, Dysart Dynamo, compare with the others from a time perspective? Before we go any further, it’s not strictly fair to call Dysart Dynamo the ‘new kid’. He was already a Supreme possible after winning the second division of a maiden hurdle at Cork last month that had seen his stable-companion Kilcruit beaten in the first, recording a timefigure 14lb slower than the winner of that race Largy Debut had posted in the opener but coming home from two out around a second and a half faster (though he wasn’t the fastest finisher on the day as that honour went to Lucky Max two hurdle races later, who ran the same section around a second faster).
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Up against a far superior set of rivals in the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday, a race his trainer Willie Mullins has dominated in recent years with Douvan and Vautour among his winners, Dysart Dynamo arguably made even easier work of them than he did the maidens at Cork, having a ‘Willie’ out in front as Dan Skelton might observe but all the same having the race won a long way out as he galloped his way to a 150 timefigure without his rider ever getting serious.
His closing sectional from two out was unsurprisingly up to two seconds slower than all the slow-early fast-late hurdle races that followed, but against that his rider had no need to go faster having seen off Gringo D’Aubrelle, last seen being left in Stage Star’s wake in the Challow at Newbury over two-and-a half miles, turning for home.
A 4lb upgrade (a minimum for the reason outlined above) takes his combined time rating to 154, level with Constitution Hill and well ahead, so far at least, of Jonbon and Sir Gerhard. On the clock Dysart Dynamo and Constitution Hill look their yard’s best hopes for the Supreme right now, though no doubt there will be a twist or two in the coming weeks.
What questions does Bob Olinger still need to answer?
On a similar theme, Bob Olinger enhanced his credentials for the Festival later in the card with a comprehensive win – ultimately – in the Grade 3 Kildare Novice Chase. He might still have some questions to answer as regards his jumping, which still looked a bit patchy to me at times despite some reported intensive schooling since his chasing debut and the omission of the three downhill fences in the back straight, but there’s no doubting his engine as he came clear approaching the final fence of a race run at a searching gallop.
A timefigure of 156 (along with a minimal 1lb upgrade, testament to unrelenting pace) is about as good as one can expect for a novice second time out over fences and with second-placed Capodanno (will be better suited by three miles) significantly extending his Naas advantage over third-placed Gaillard Du Mesnil, who along with the rest of the finishers was well beaten off, the form is very difficult to knock even if Bob Olinger’s application still has room for improvement.
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Warwick staged its feature National Hunt meeting of the year on Saturday with three Graded contests as well as a Pertemps Qualifier that bizarrely saw just seven go to post after a big Irish contingent entered seemingly solely for exposure to their expected Cheltenham handicap marks failed to turn up on the day.
Winning timefigure honours on the day went to Brave Seasca who is yet another rapidly-improving novice chaser from the Venetia Williams yard. He took the step up out of novice company in his stride in the Edward Courage Cup with a comprehensive defeat of last season’s Grand Annual winner Sky Pirate in a timefigure of 145, a 4lb improvement on the figure he posted over the same course and distance last month in a novices handicap chase that now looks very strong form (runner-up Tokay Dokey couldn’t have won any easier at Market Rasen next time out).
Fastest of the graded winners was Emma Lavelle’s Éclair Surf who took the Classic Handicap Chase over an extended twenty-nine furlongs in a 140 timefigure. Soon jumping well in a smooth rhythm out in front, one of a number of winners on the day to do so, Éclair Surf has promised this sort of performance before (scored very well at Hereford in December 2020 in a 131 timefigure) but his profile is rather hit and miss and his jumping hasn’t always been this proficient, so how much higher he goes remains to be seen.
Are form figures the full story with Threeunderfive?
Threeunderthrufive extended his winning sequence over fences to four with a win in the Hampton Novices' Chase, a race his stable took with Next Destination last year, but despite impressive form figures of 211116121111 and a haul of two Graded wins and one Listed success in the last nine month,s a career-best timefigure of 145 suggests that he’s been well placed rather than shown himself to be top class.
Useful Flat stayer Stag Horn has made a good start to hurdling and won the Leamington Hurdle in gritty fashion to follow up his Hereford win. A 128 timefigure is pretty much on a par with a what he achieved on the Flat, but he came up short at the top level in that sphere and it might be the same story over hurdles. Sporting John possibly rekindled his Stayers’ Hurdle hopes after his Pertemps victory, but he would surely be better aimed at the Final. Sure, a ready win in a 106 timefigure shows he still has some kick at the end of a modestly-run race, but with favourite and fellow ‘youngster’ Riggs pulling up and The Jam Man very weak in the market I fancy it would be a mistake to read too much into the merit of this win over a small field largely there to qualify for the Final.
Over on the Coral-sponsored Kempton card, Mister Fisher landed the Grade 2 Silviniano Conti Chase from Eldorado Allen in a 154 timefigure. Since finishing fourth behind Samcro in the 2020 Marsh at the Festival, Mister Fisher has failed to finish more often not, often let down by his jumping, but up against just three rivals in a dismal turnout for the prize money and only one of those arguably in any sort of form, he showed he’s no back number if no nearer the class that has held him back at the top level.
Mister Fisher was one of four winners on the card for his trainer Nicky Henderson, though luck deserted him in the big betting race of the day, the Lanzarote Hurdle, in which his Maria’s Rock seemed unsettled by being badly hampered at the second, eventually being pulled up. A 127 timefigure for the winner Cobblers Dream is by some way a career best for this still-improving hurdler who looked well suited by the step up in trip.
Southwell reap benefits of new surface
It’s getting on for six weeks since Southwell raced on their new tapeta surface for the first time, and though the program in terms of quality hasn’t been much different to that on show at around the same time last year, there are some encouraging signs that the style of racing needed to succeed there isn’t the one-dimensional gunned-from-the-front style that associated with fibresand there.
This is becoming apparent in where we are seeing the winners ‘come from’ within the race. All winners must come from somewhere, of course, but track configuration and surface characteristics can be sometimes be just as important as pace in deciding results and what has become apparent is that the tapeta seems much fairer than the surface it replaced.
Since its inception on December 7th at the end of 2021, horses held up (defined as being awarded a 4 or 5 in Timeform’s unique in-running performance symbols) on the round course over all distances have won 34% of all races whereas horses ridden much more prominently (awarded a 1 or 2) have won just 28%. That’s a massive turnaround from the hold-up ‘waste ground’ a year previously where hold-up horses in the same time period won just 13% of the races and those ridden forward succeeded 72% of the time.
What that makes for is much more interesting racing, and Southwell would surely be the go-to track for the All Weather championships if only it had a mile and a quarter start (the track is constrained by Southwell Golf Club but my calculations suggest the eleven-furlong start could be brought forward by just over half a furlong making for an extended mile and a quarter, which would surely be acceptable). It will be interesting to see if there are any developments on this front.
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