Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North on the recent action
By Graeme North
12:42 · TUE August 31, 2021
Graeme North looks at what the clock tells us about the recent big-race action and he has a 33/1 fancy for the Cesarewitch too.
Back around the turn of the century when I was responsible at various times for handicapping the juveniles and the older sprinter/milers for Timeform, the August Bank Holiday weekend always struck me as a watershed time in the Flat calendar.
Bank Holiday Saturday saw the end of evening racing (the concept of twilight or floodlit racing was in its infancy back then) and the meetings were suddenly filled full of two-year-old races as opportunities for older horses fell away. In 2000 for example, there were 4329 runners in two-year-old races in Britain between September 1st and December 31st, making up 25% of the total runners in that period.
The increase in the amount of all-weather racing since then among other things has seen that trend reversed and opportunities for (mostly ordinary) older horses open up again to the extent that the 5584 juvenile runners for the same four months in 2020 made up just over 21% of the total number of runners. Some things haven’t changed, though – the five Flat tracks that staged a fixture last Saturday were also racing the same day in 2000 and the feature event of the weekend was, as it still is, the Celebration Mile at Goodwood.
That said, the Celebration Mile isn’t quite the race it was. In 2000, still carrying Group 2 status, it was won by Medicean from a field that included the Irish 2000 Guineas winner Bachir, the Jersey Stakes winner Observatory and the Cheveley Park winner Seazun, and the 125 Timeform performance rating Medicean needed to post to win it remains the highest in the race this century.
The latest running, like all races on the card sponsored by the Tote, didn’t lack for well-known names with the 2019 winner Duke Of Hazzard, the globetrotting Benbatl and the Greenham winner Chindit among the runners, but the race lacked the star quality Group 1-bound Baeed would have provided had his connections not opted to go to France and with many of the runners coming into the race under something of a cloud, the door was always open for an unexpected result.
Not to take anything away from Lavender’s Blue, who found more off the bridle than she sometimes does to edge out Benbatl in an ordinary 105 timefigure (her best, also at Goodwood, is 106) but she hadn’t come into the race in top form herself, having been well held in the Falmouth Stakes last time, and seemingly just happened to be in the right race at the right time.
Medicean went on to win the Lockinge, Queen Anne and Eclipse as a four-year-old but Lavender’s Blue victory is rather characteristic of the Mile’s waning status over the last two decades as her 114 rating means that the last 11renewals have now produced seven of the lowest winning performances this century.
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As in 2000, the main supporting races on Goodwood’s card were the March Stakes and the Prestige Stakes, both Group 3 contests. The March has been masquerading falsely as a St Leger trial for many years now and in common with the then-2000 winner Alva Glen, the 2021 victor Dancing King doesn’t hold an entry.
A timefigure of 78 testifies to his getting a well-judged front-running ride from Joe Fanning, though on sectionals the runner-up Nagano is entitled in theory to be considered the better horse by 2lb though whether he has the attitude to match his ability is a moot point. The Prestige Stakes can at least bask in recent Classic glory having been won by subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Billesdon Brook in 2017.
Sectionals show that the latest winner Mise En Scene deserved taking very seriously on account of her debut maiden win, but for all she showed a good attitude and a fair amount of improvement to get up in the final strides to beat several fillies with proven pattern-race form, a winning timefigure of 88 with the more-exposed Hello You not far behind in fourth while more compromised by the run of the race suggests this is minor league Group form.
Windsor’s premier Flat card of the year shared the stage with Goodwood on Saturday but their flagship contest, the Winter Hill Stakes, attracted just four runners, the smallest field this century, following three years in which just five went to post.
The eventual winner Solid Stone didn’t need to achieve anything he hadn’t previously having been gifted an easy lead in front (timefigure 56) but if nothing else it underlined his liking for the track having landed a Listed contest there earlier in the year. Their other feature event, the August Stakes, also sponsored by Styner BMW, went to one-time Oaks fancy Teona.
Seemingly all the better for a three-month break since flopping at Epsom, and possibly appreciating the quicker ground too, Teona was far too good for her rivals and though an 84 timefigure testifies to the gallop being modest, sectionals show she was a fully deserving winner despite being better placed than course specialist Desert Encounter who chased her home. She might yet show in better company show her prominent showing in the ante-post Oaks market wasn’t misplaced.
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There was a new five-furlong track record set at Beverley on Saturday in the William Hill-sponsored Beverley Bullet when Clive Cox’s Tis Marvellous became only the second horse ever to break the 60-second barrier there after Judicial (incidentally back in third here) had managed the feat back in 2017.
Track records are usually more a reflection of fast conditions than outstanding performances, of course, but a timefigure of 114 (along with a 1lb upgrade) stacks up pretty well both in terms of the winner’s previous form (he won the Prix Robert-Papin back in 2016) and the best recent previous performances achieved in the race, second only to Tangerine Trees in 2011.
There was an interesting card at the Curragh last Friday night that hosted three Group 3 contests. Pick of the winning performances on the clock among that trio came from the two-year-old filly Sacred Bridge in the Heider Family Round Tower Stakes where she completed a four-timer getting the better of nine other previous winners in fine style.
Timeform have rated her 110p, which makes her the best of her age and sex seen so far in Britain or Ireland, and though she doesn’t rate quite so highly on the clock a sectional rating of 108 (103 timefigure + 5 upgrade) doesn’t have her far behind. That performance saw her promoted to favouritism for the Cheveley Park Stakes over the same trip in just under two months’ time. Sandrine and Zain Claudette, the next two in the market for that race, currently have best timefigures of 103 (106 after sectionals have been incorporated) and 100 respectively.
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Finally, an ante-post selection. In the same piece a couple of weeks back in which I flagged up Perfect Power for the Prix Morny, I also suggested that Snowalot would be one to keep onside in staying handicaps and, the subject of strong support, he showed he was still some way ahead of his mark by some way when winning the concluding handicap on the Celebration Mile card to complete a double for the up-and-coming James Ferguson.
The race turned into a test of speed – the winning timefigure was only 46 - but even so Timeform have Snowalot running the last half mile barely half a second slower than Lavender’s Blue despite only getting going in the last furlong.
He looks to me as though his form will take off once he gets two miles or more and he reminds me very much of Withhold, a progressive stayer with a good turn of foot, who won the Cesarewitch a couple of seasons back. Indeed, Snowalot would have got into the Cesarewitch comfortably last year off his new mark of 85 and I wouldn’t put anyone off getting involved at 33/1.
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