Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

Regular readers will be aware there wasn’t a column last week because the fixture list had been decimated by snow and ice, but a couple of interesting and perhaps significant fixtures got the go-ahead in Ireland from which I’ll run through briefly first.

Fairyhouse’s card on the 11th might have staged one Grade Three event – a handicap chase that went to the The King Of PRS in a 129 timefigure – but as so often over there the more interesting action came in the non-handicap events with the beginners chase over an extended 17 furlongs promising to be particularly informative given it featured Arkle possibles Tullyhill, Asian Master and Mistergif, all of whom contested the Supreme last year when they were eighth, fourth and fifth respectively.

The race was strongly run, almost too strongly run so far as the leaders who were six lengths clear of Mistergif clearing the second last were concerned, the race sectional from three fences out dipping well below 100%, and though Mistergif was still only disputing third place jumping the last he stayed on too strongly for Tullyhill who emerged clear best of the three pace setters.

Mistergif’s winning timefigure of 146 is a notably high one for a novice first time out over fences – Tullyhill posted 144 while Asian Master ran a 137 and Westport Cove, who cut out the running, returned 134 – but if anything the race only served to highlight once again what a very smart prospect Majborough, who beat Tullyhill and Asian Master with ease at Fairyhouse back in December, must be. I suspect there’s a lot less between him and Sir Gino than their Arkle odds (7/2 and 4/5 respectively) imply.

What did the clock say about Salvator Mundi?

Talking of Sir Gino, the horse he beat when making a winning debut over hurdles at Auteuil, Salvator Mundi, was in action at Punchestown the following afternoon where, having his first race since winning by a country mile at Tipperary in May, he lined up as odds-on favourite for the Grade 2 Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle, a race won in the previous two seasons by Supreme runner-up Mystical Power and Ballymore winner Impaire Et Passe.

Opposed by five rivals including Kel Histoire who’d scored in very good style on his Irish debut at Cork, albeit in a race that looks less strong now than it did at the time, Salvator Mundi didn’t impress everyone but still managed to get the job done in a modest 119 timefigure after being held up behind a steady pace.

Obviously, he’ll have to jump much better going forward than the clumsy display he put on here, but the powerful turn of foot he showed round the final bend despite running four-wide to take up the running approaching the last having been a modest fourth two out suggested to me that he was far superior to the others than his three-length winning margin indicates, a view backed up by his sectional times that showed he ran each of the last three furlongs faster than any of his opponents.

For a clear Supreme favourite he's lowly rated admittedly, rated just 137p by Timeform, but I’ve no doubt we’ll see a different horse at Cheltenham as we might with Kel Histoire who stayed on well having been tapped for toe approaching the last and would have been suited by a more strongly-run race.

Lecky Watson won the Grade Three Sky Bet-sponsored novice chase by eight lengths from Down Memory Lane but a 102 timefigure and a modest final circuit time slower than chasing newcomer Ney (over three furlongs further to boot) recorded in the opening chase doesn’t persuade me this is form worth getting excited about - the winner was only fifth in last year’s Albert Bartlett after all, while the error-prone runner Down Memory Lane jumped better than he had at Sandown when well held by L’Eau Du Sud but wouldn’t have finished any closer than two lengths even if he jumped the last cleanly.

I don’t doubt the sentiments behind the burgeoning Winter Million Festival which has put a bit of life into what is otherwise a dull month of jumps racing even before it has brought jumping at Windsor back into the fray, but I’m not convinced about its execution with a handicap-heavy three days feeling one day too many.

A soft alternative to the Dublin Racing Festival to which British trainers are reluctant to contest (there are just four entries from Britain on Saturday and five on Sunday, with one of that quintet being a horse who is doubly entered) the Festival was rescued this year by Jonbon whose six-and-a-half length defeat of Energumene in the MGM Clarence House Chase was considered by Timeform to be a clear career best, both in terms of form ratings (178, 6lb higher than the 172 that he had run to twice previously, in the Tingle Creek at Sandown and the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham) as well as on the clock where his 175 was a 5lb improvement on the 170 he posted in the Tingle Creek and is the joint-highest timefigure recorded alongside Galopin Des Champs since the latter's Gold Cup win in 2023.

Currently a best-priced 11/8 shot for the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, Jonbon has dished out 165 or higher performances with a regularity and consistency that even Michael Van Gerwen would find it hard to match, acknowledging that 165 (as well as 166, 168 and 169) are scores you can’t hit with three darts on a dartboard!

He has hit that figure nine times in 14 races which, expressed as a percentage, is behind only Kauto Star, Sprinter Sacre, Galopin Des Champs and Energumene who have run to that level more times than he has.

The latter might have posted a 166 in the latest Clarence House, the joint seventh highest timefigure since the start of 2024 (Jonbon has three of the top five) but his second with no excuses rather suggested that he’s not the force of old and probably set for a place at Cheltenham unless his connections lower their sights and consider the Ryanair over a trip he hasn’t been seen at bizarrely since running away with a maiden chase on his debut at Gowran back in 2020 on desperate ground.

Edwardstone returned a 161, incidentally the sixth time he has returned a timefigure of 160 or higher.

Staying over fences, runner-up Hitman posted a career-best 157 in the handicap chase, 1lb higher than the 156 he posted in the 2023 Ryanair, but was no match for a horse who received a glowing write up in this column back in November, Terresita, who continues to give the impression she’ll do even better still (140 timefigure here, a career best by 22lb) when she doesn’t give away so much ground by running wide.

There wasn’t so much happening on the clock over hurdles but a couple of races had some impact on the Cheltenham Festival markets including the opening juvenile hurdle which went to the Nicky Henderson trained Lulamba on his first start since winning a 16-runner newcomers hurdle at Auteuil in August.

Lines of collateral form through the fifth could have him rated 140 on that performance, if much less through the other contestants to have run since, and though his winning timefigure came in at 119 a 13.33 final furlong was easily the quickest of any of the winners over hurdles on the day and proved too quick for the runner-up Mondo Man who might not have helped himself by pulling hard early but was no slouch on the Flat having finished fifth in the French Derby and fourth in the King Edward VII Stakes.

The feature hurdle, the Grade 2 BetMGM Mares’ Hurdle, was more strongly run and returned a 139 timefigure, not for the long odds-on favourite Kargese as might have been imagined beforehand but Take No Chances who had finished fifth behind Sir Gino in the Fighting Fifth before running a cracker off a BHA mark of 137 in a handicap at Cheltenham before Christmas.

Race fitness almost certainly played a part with Kargese not having run for nine months and rather snatching defeat from the jaws of victory having traded at 1.20 in running but the proximity of sixth-placed Brendas Asking lends the form a suspect look and whether Kargese will ever allow herself (very on toes again beforehand) to show the form she is likely capable of remains to be seen.

Park impresses in the Lightning

The previous day at Windsor the opening day of the Winter Million Festival saw smart performances from Gidleigh Park in the Grade Two Novices’ Chase and Nemean Lion in the conditions hurdle.

Timefigures at Windsor are still somewhat in the formative stage after such a long absence and a course configuration change but Gidleigh Park who suffered his first defeat when a non-staying sixth in last season’s Albert Bartlett put a lacklustre chasing debut behind him (pulled up behind Iberico Lord at Kempton) and signalled a return to form for the Harry Fry yard when getting the better of Caldwell Potter in a 151 timefigure in the two-mile novice chase.

As is often the case with reversals involving high-profile purchases, more of the post-race fall-out surrounded the big-footed and seemingly hard to train runner-up who is surely a prize candidate for one of his stables famed breathing operations after this effort but Gidleigh Park, who was Timeform’s paddock pick in the Albert Bartlett, won on merit and looks another who’ll add some lustre to what looks a deep Arkle field this season.

The aforementioned Iberico Lord was back over hurdles in the conditions hurdle but sadly transferred some of his clumsy jumping technique across to the smaller obstacles, looking a shadow of the horse who contested last season’s Champion Hurdle; Nemean Lion wasn’t always fluent himself but asserted late on in a race run at a slow pace to score in a 118 timefigure.

At the time of writing Timeform still hadn’t returned any timefigures from Haydock because of concerns surrounding the provision of official additional yardage information which have yet to be addressed by the clerk of the course and there weren’t any either, as there never is, from Thurles where Appreciate It might have won the Grade 2 Horse And Jockey Hotel Chase but a very wide course which looked to be favoured on the afternoon as well a final circuit time and closing sectionals barley any faster than the Timeform 125-rated Nara posted in the weakly-contested preceding novice chase suggests he probably didn’t get anywhere near the 158 rating Timeform awarded him from a form perspective.

There were some figures returned from Windsor, however, with pride of place over fences going to the apparently rejuvenated Protektorat who took apart the well-endowed Fitzdares Fleur de Lys Chase in a 161 timefigure. On the face of things it could be viewed as one of his best performances but the unconventional distance as well as track played very much to his strengths against a ragbag of opponents and whether this performance was as good as a winning distance of 23 lengths implies I’m not sure.

Matata followed up his 157 Kelso timefigure with a 155 in the two-mile handicap but the pace was much more sedate in the opening novice won by Jingko Blue in a timefigure of just 88.

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