Ben Linfoot delves into some vital statistics ahead of the November Handicap card at Doncaster with an each-way double and reverse-forecast making appeal.
Betting on the end-of-season November Handicap card at Doncaster will not be everyone’s cup of tea, but watching them get down and dirty on a gloomy Town Moor floats my boat for some reason.
Perhaps it’s simply because this is the last chance to back a horse on the Flat on the grass in the UK until late next March, a date that seems a world away at the moment.
For UK Flat fans thoughts turn to the Lincoln after this, the other Doncaster bookend that brings with it hope and dreams ahead of the spring turning into summer – although we were of course denied that pleasure this year during the first lockdown.
Thank goodness racing continues during Lockdown 2.0. And while there’s something for everyone this weekend with good jumps action and the Breeders’ Cup, too, don’t turn your nose up at the dying embers of the Flat season.
There might well be some gems to be found and with that in mind here are some punting pearlers to chew over before you sit down and finalise your last UK Flat bets for the best part of five months. Sob.
November reign for Candy and Elsworth
There are some trainers to look out for this weekend due to their records at this meeting in the past and they are David Elsworth and Henry Candy.
Elsworth chooses his Doncaster targets at this time of the year carefully and has had just 19 runners at this meeting since 1997, with eight of them running in the top five and four of them winning.
Persian Punch won on this card and Gower Song landed the Gillies Fillies, while Bonnie Brae and Speculative Bid won handicaps as well.
His best result in the November Handicap was Dashing Star, who was third in 2014, so it’s fascinating that he goes for the prize with his full-brother, DASH OF SPICE, on Saturday.
A thoroughly convincing winner of the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot in his pomp in 2018, Dash Of Spice has not won since but he’s looking dangerously handicapped off 94 now.
That’s 4lb lower than he was when winning at the Royal meeting and he ran his best race in ages over Saturday’s course and distance last time where he led for a long way before only succumbing to Tulip Fields in the final furlong.
He gets a 4lb swing with that horse on Saturday and is dead interesting at 16/1 with Tom Marquand, who rode him last time, booked for the job again.
Like Elsworth, Henry Candy does well with his rare forays to this meeting and he throws only one dart at the Doncaster card this year as well.
Candy has had four winners from 22 runners at this meeting since ’97, with Gorse, Bow Wave, London Gold and Seal Rock doing the winning, while the likes of The Confessor, Cape Peron, Hidden Affair and Ornamental have run well with good placed efforts in recent years.
This time around he runs LA LUNE in the Listed Betfair Exchange British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes and the drop in trip to 10 furlongs on soft ground looks sure to suit.
The daughter of Champs Elysees handled heavy ground well at Newmarket on October 3 when third off 95 in handicap company behind Urban Artist over 1m4f and she simply didn’t stay when stepped up to 1m6f after that at Bath.
Candy infrequently uses Paul Hanagan, too, but the pair teamed up with Rebecca Rocks to win a fillies’ Listed race at Ayr last year in similar circumstances – she had only a bit to find at a double-figure price as well – and La Lune is only 7lb off the top-rated here.
The solo missions from the Elsworth and Candy yards are interesting enough to have an each-way double on the pair.
In the genes reverse forecast
The Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap at 12.55 has a handful of last-time out winners in it and it could pay to stick with the in-form horses on ground they’ll love.
Two that stick out are interesting from a pedigree perspective and we’ll start with PUNCHBOWL FLYER who has been in great form for Eve Johnson Houghton.
He’s on a hat-trick after heavy ground wins at Windsor and Newbury on his last two starts and despite a 13lb rise in the weights in that timeframe he might not have stopped improving yet.
The pedigree pointer is by virtue of his sire, Dream Ahead, who has had two winners at this meeting from just six representatives over the last few years.
Both Dream Of Dreams and Donjuan Triumphant won for the stallion and encountering late autumn conditions has certainly brought out more in the Punchbowl.
In the same race MOLLS MEMORY is a Helmet mare that loves testing ground and she won well in heavy ground at Newbury last time, a win that she was raised just 3lb for.
Her dam’s sire is Mind Games and his mares have done well with their progeny at this meeting, with Tartiflette winning on this card twice at 10/1 and 20/1, while Aetna won the Wentworth Stakes at 8/1, too.
Spinatrix and Aeolus, also out of Mind Games mares, performed well on this card as well, so there’s a good bit of Doncaster pedigree in Molls Memory’s blood even if this is her first go on Town Moor.
It’s a wonderful time of the year for…
Finally, very few Flat yards hold their form into October and November but Charlie Fellowes and Simon Crisford are two that have done well at this time of the year the last few campaigns.
Fellowes has had 16 wins from 88 runners at a strike-rate of 18.18% in October and November since he’s been training and he runs a couple of outsiders in the Listed Wentworth Stakes that are worth consideration.
AMARILLO STAR hosed up off 87 in a handicap at Goodwood last time on the back of 225 days off the track, so he’s the more interesting of the pair given he’s thriving and is fresher than most.
CHIEFOFCHIEFS doesn’t have the same appeal, but he had an impossible task in the QIPCO British Champions Sprint last time out.
As for the Crisford yard, they are in red-hot form, with recent wins helping their October-November record to an extremely healthy 17 from 90 at 19% with their horses running well late in the year for the sixth consecutive season.
Their sole runner on Saturday is BANNA in the Betfair Each Way Edge Novice Stakes at 2.45 and this filly is closely-related to top-class stablemate Century Dream and the recently retired King Of Change.
She kept on well for fifth on her debut in heavy ground at Windsor, and with that run under her belt she could well use the benefit of that experience to improve past chief rival Super Den and land the prize for her in-form yard.
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