Zabeel Prince can cause a surprise in the feature race on day two of the Cambridgeshire meeting - Matt Brocklebank has two Newmarket tips at big prices.
Recommended bets, Friday September 25
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Friday’s ITV4 Newmarket coverage kicks off with a wide-open looking Tasleet British EBF Rosemary Stakes, in which William Haggas is strongly represented with four runners.
They include early favourite Ummalnar who hasn’t been seen since bolting up in an Ascot handicap 440 days ago, a performance which saw her official rating go from 90 to 100 in one fell swoop.
She’s bred to win Group races and has clearly been showing the right signs at home recently but her blowout last season not only came first time out, but also on an undulating track at Ripon.
Haggas is on record suggesting it may have contributed to her disappointing run so while she has to be respected, she’s a horse I’m happy to oppose on her first taste of the Rowley Mile and its famous dip.
The one to be on could be ARRIVISTE (18/1 Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) for Rae Guest and Jim Crowley.
She’s yet to win from three starts this season but went down by just a neck off level weights to Award Scheme (winner and placed twice at Listed level since) in a Salisbury handicap, before running perfectly well in a couple of pattern races in France won by Raabihah and Angel Power.
She definitely earned a crack at those kind of races, especially when looking back at her juvenile form which continues to work out well, but I do feel they’ve been getting the trip wrong with her all year.
Like so many Kirsten Rausing-bred fillies, her page suggests she should be a stout stayer but evidence suggests she’ll thrive for a return to the mile here.
Her only previous run at the trip came on debut last October when sixth in a red-hot Doncaster maiden which has produced 11 subsequent winners, including classy operators like Gold Wand and Lady G.
Arriviste’s dam is a half-sister to Sir Michael Stoute’s very smart miler Zaaki and it looks like this may be as far as she wants – that certainly looked the case when leading with a couple of furlongs to travel in both of her recent outings across the Channel.
Front-runners can be hard to peg back at Newmarket and while there’s no shortage of pace on with Fooraat, First Kingdom and Tomorrow’s Dream all likely to be in there pitching for early superiority, hopefully Crowley can win that mini-battle before setting the fractions to suit his filly.
Such a favourable scenario seems more than possible and Arriviste looks good enough to take advantage - 18/1 is a big price with the odd firm offering five places.
In the same silks Alpinista will be well backed in the Group Three Princess Royal Muhaarar Stakes.
She slammed the aforementioned Award Scheme in a Listed event at Salisbury before running on well to pick up the pieces behind Love in the Yorkshire Oaks.
Those two pieces of form read well in this company but aren’t wildly superior to Franconia’s Lyric Stakes victory over Gold Wand, and if you’re looking to get cute in the race it might be worth giving the daughter of Frankel another chance at this trip after evidently not running her race at all in the Yorkshire Oaks.
With the promising Katara in opposition I was hoping Franconia might be a couple of points bigger than the general 9/2 on offer, but Frankie’s back on and I certainly wouldn’t be putting anyone off her at that price.
The Group Two Shadwell Rockfel Stakes looks all about Isabella Giles and Monday and even if one of them doesn’t quite live up to expectations, it’s hard to envisage them both fluffing their lines so we can skip the race and look ahead to a cracking Shadwell Joel Stakes.
Benbatl reminded everyone of his undoubted talents by making all and winning by five lengths in the race last year but it’s a deeper event this time around and the midweek rain won’t have helped his cause at all.
It’s not entirely clear what ground Kameko really wants in an ideal world, nor is it certain he’s now going to develop into a top-notch miler. His Guineas win at the start of the year, combined with an unfortunate Sussex Stakes run, would strongly suggest this is his going to be his trip, but he also had a pretty gruelling race in the Juddmonte International when last seen at York.
I’m a big fan of Top Rank’s attitude and form which tie in closely with three-year-old Tilsit on a line through My Oberon, but the value may lie with the old boy of the party ZABEEL PRINCE (22/1 Hills, Ladbrokes).
His official rating has slumped (was 117 coming into the year) to 110 on the back of two admittedly moderate efforts at Leopardstown and York, but he was a Group One winner just last May and it could be too soon to be writing him off at this sort of level.
Last month he ran quite an eyecatching race when fourth to Certain Lad in the nine-furlong Strensall Stakes, where he again raced keenly before not quite seeing it out in the straight.
A drop back to this stiff mile in what looks almost certain to be a strongly-run affair looks a good move by the red-hot Roger Varian, who will take encouragement from the lightly-raced seven-year-old's half-length second to Mustashry in the 2018 edition of the race (Regal Reality third).
He’s got form in the book to just about match everything in this line-up when on his best behaviour and merits a small interest at 20s or bigger in the day's feature.
Posted at 1600 BST on 24/09/20
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.