The Timeform Jury team pick out the best bets in the ITV races at Haydock and Musselburgh on Saturday.
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Musselburgh
1.50 1 pt – 2 Power of Zeus 14/1
The Johnston stable has farmed this race in recent years – hardly surprising given how the yard’s horses tend to be ridden, this one of the best tracks in the country for front running over 1m – and in Individualism it has another very live contender. The trouble is he’s already been well backed and odds of around 11/8 on Friday afternoon make limited appeal. It’s not as if there aren’t potential rivals for the lead too, and looking a bit further down the betting seems a sound idea, with Power of Zeus – currently the complete outsider of the field – seeming overpriced. He quickly reached a fairly useful level at two, producing a really strong surge to win going away at Ripon on his second start. Not only did the time back up that form, but the runner-up is now rated 17 lb higher on Timeform ratings than the level he ran to that day. Power of Zeus couldn’t back up that run next time, but that’s another tidy-looking piece of form, and perhaps a third run in six weeks was a bit much for a horse that promises to be a better three-year-old. Admittedly he’ll have to improve a bit to defy a mark of 83, but it’s easy to see a combination of the longer trip and getting a tow into the race behind a contested lead bringing about improvement.
2.25 1 pt – 5 Darkness 11/1
These early-season Flat turf handicaps can be tricky affairs with them hinging less on working out who has the best form and more on who is likely to be the most forward, that especially the case here with seven of the nine runners making their seasonal reappearance. Poet Master is the one most likely to end this season rated highest, but not all of Karl Burke’s hit the ground running at Doncaster last week while testing ground is an unknown for him having raced only on good or firmer last year. He’s an opposable favourite. The Timeform ratings are headed by Northern Express and Darkness, both have gone well fresh and hail from in-form yards and it’s the latter that appeals most given his double figure odds. He was second on his reappearance on heavy ground at Redcar last spring and managed to get his head in front at Newmarket in the summer from a BHA mark of 91. His form tailed off a bit in the autumn, but it means he returns here from a 1 lb lower mark than when last successful.
3.00 1 pt – 6 Zarzyni 9/2
Silky Wilkie returns to turf from a mark 2 lb lower than when winning this race by a very wide margin last year, so it’s easy to see why he’s at the top of the betting. That said, he did arrive in better heart then and he’s not the only horse with previous in this race as Zarzyni was beaten just a short head in it in 2021 from a mark of 90 and fifth in it from a mark of 97 12 months ago, while he also won what was basically the equivalent race at this fixture in 2022 from a mark of 99 when this race was run in early-June. Admittedly that was his last win, but the upshot of that is that he can return to turf from a mark of just 82 having run himself into form on the all-weather of late. Heavy ground is a bit of a concern, but the amount of pace in the race ought to really favour him.
3.35 1 pt – 3 Chillingham 4/1
Sweet Fantasy and Metier are both interesting back on the Flat, especially given underfoot conditions, but Chillingham was somewhere near the top of our shortlist even before the form of his last run got another boost when the winner Prydwen comfortably won the AW Marathon Final. Chillingham was only half a length behind him at Wolverhampton in November, with the next three home all winning handicaps on their next couple of starts, and now he reappears from a mark just 1 lb higher. A ready winner on heavy ground on his 2023 reappearance, and also successful on his final run the season before on his only other run to date on heavy ground, he looks poised for a big run with further progress on the cards after just 10 starts in his life, unexposed at this trip to boot.
Haydock
2.05 1pt – 5 The Churchill Lad 13/2
While it’s probably fair enough that Brentford Hope heads the market – he’s progressive over hurdles and still looks handily weighted on his Flat form – he perhaps has a bit more on his plate than odds of 2/1 or 15/8 suggest and is worth opposing. There were several on the shortlist but the most appealing is The Churchill Lad following the withdrawal of Milldam. He was a C&D winner back in December and has been acquitting himself well since, clear of the rest when second at Catterick and then finishing fourth in a deep renewal of the Morebattle Hurdle last time. He can be keen but has settled better with a hood back on his last two starts and is capable of making a bold showing from the front.
2.40 1 pt – 9 Picanha 9/1
Although being a 10-year-old makes Picanha the second oldest in this field, he’s actually fairly unexposed. He progressed well as a novice in 2021/22, winning twice, including a handicap at Warwick off the same mark he runs off today. He wasn’t seen for almost two years after that, but his reappearance at Newbury last month was promising and he made good headway through the field to challenge at the second last, only to weaken from there as if in need of the run, trading at 2/1 in-running from a SP of 14/1. The seven weeks off since should be sufficient for him to recover and if he builds on that, double-figure odds underestimate him.
3.15 1 pt – 4 Riders Onthe Storm 9/2
Numitor is just the sort of bold-jumping prominent racer that should be really suited to Haydock, and he showed he retains a good chunk of his ability when returning at Exeter recently. The trouble is that was just 11 days ago, and it’s a bit of a guess whether he’ll go the right way from that turned out so quickly. Riders Onthe Storm has had a bit more of a break since bouncing back to form at the start of the month, and therefore he strikes as a slightly more solid proposition. It’s only 17 months since he beat Hitman and GA Law to win the Old Roan from a mark of 139 and, following a breathing operation, he went with plenty of spark over 2m at Doncaster last time, collared only in the final 50 yards by a much younger rival. He’s been left on a mark of 130, conditions will be no problem and having other prominent racers in the race could actually help him.
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