Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips on Saturday

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Sandown

1.25 1 pt – 2 In Limbo

Almost all of these are open to improvement to varying degrees but In Limbo has the fewest miles on the clock and looks overpriced at double-figure odds for his handicap debut. In Limbo was off for nearly two years between his final point outing and his hurdling debut, but he showed plenty to work on when fourth at Exeter then backed up that promise when third at Newbury just after Christmas. Both those races have a solid look to them – the Exeter one in particular has produced improvers - and a couple of in-frame finishes entitle In Limbo to enter handicaps after just two outings. He won’t need to improve much more to go close from a mark of 115, and, beyond his lightly-raced profile, he also has the step up in trip as an obvious avenue for improvement, as he’s got a stout pedigree and stayed on well to press for second at Newbury.

2.00 1 pt – 3 Solo

There’s a clear-cut case to make for Etalon in this, as he’s been bubbling under this season and is now just 4 lb higher than when a wide-margin winner over course and distance a year ago. It’s not as if he’s been missed in the betting, though, and at a bigger price it’s worth chancing Solo. His form has been patchy over the last few seasons, but he has edged back down the weights, and his latest run, when fourth at Ascot, was considerably better than his seasonal return. He’ll get a positive ride back down at two miles and it’s worth noting that he has an all-the-way chase win at Sandown to his name already.

2.35 1 pt – 4 Kalif du Berlais

These small-field graded novices don’t often make for great betting races but it’s easy to form a view of this one with Timeform top rated a straightforward selection at the prices. A grade 2 winner as a juvenile hurdler last season, he’s quickly proved himself an even better chaser, banishing the memory of a fall on his first start over fences with consecutive handicap wins at Newbury and Cheltenham. He only had two rivals to beat at the latter track, but he did it with plenty in hand and the form – backed up by the timefigure – is up to the standard required in an average renewal of this race and looks to have been underestimated compared to the conditions-race efforts of the promising pair Jango Baie and Handstands.

3.07 1 pt – 4 Henri The Second

Towcester no longer exists as a racecourse but Sandown’s hurdles track on testing ground has proved an able deputy in terms of stretching stamina to such a limit that most horses simply cannot cope. It is with that suitability in mind, therefore, that Henri The Second looks so hard to oppose in this staying handicap, given he spreadeagled the field faced with a similar test over the same course and distance before Christmas, prompting the Timeform reporter to highlight this very race as a likely next step. That path has indeed come to pass and the subsequent 8 lb rise doesn’t look at all harsh considering how well he handled the test that day in powering eighteen lengths clear of Up For Parol and Super Survivor (three wins between them since). And in any case, this will be one of those races far less about weights and measures than it will be coping with the severe test, something Henri The Second did with rare ease when last seen on his first try over a staying trip.

3.42 0.5 pt – 5 Pats Fancy

This is a below-par renewal of what is normally a competitive handicap, with so many question marks hanging over most of the field. In d’Or stands out somewhat on profile as a twice-raced novice bidding to make it three from three over fences, but it’s often hair-raising stuff with his owner-rider doing the steering and this will be the stiffest stamina test he’s faced so far, while he’s predictably been identified by the odds compilers as the most likely winner. Main market rival O’Connell is improving for a yard right in the midst of a purple patch, but he’s up plenty in the weights and in class and, as a token alternative as the rank outsider, Pats Fancy is just about worth a small-stakes bet given the odd positive to go with the obvious negatives of having flopped the only twice he’s been sighted since signing off a useful two-win novice chase campaign in 2021/22. Firstly, this is a much less daunting task than that he’d faced in then Welsh National Trial (won by Nassalam) when last seen in December 2023, but the fact connections see fit to persevere seems interesting in itself and the handicapper has dropped him 7 lb during the lay-off. Trainer Rebecca Curtis has had a better season overall this time around to boot, with nine winners to her name since early-October, during which time Ben Jones has normally been her go-to riding choice (aboard for a third of those wins and several other placed mounts).

Musselburgh

1.42 1 pt – 5 Luker’s Tipple

It’s possible the Timeform top-rated Maitre En Science will make us look a bit silly in this. After all, he’s fully 11 lb clear on the ratings having improved by the run in France and the form of his latest win at Clairefontaine back in September has worked out notably well. It’s also the case that his new trainer Harry Derham has a cracking first-time-up record with horses from other yards, but he has been short of winners over the last month after seeing his gallops washed away in a flood at the end of November and, at a general 9/4 we can probably leave him alone in the hope that there’s still enough juice in the price of Luker’s Tipple. After just two starts on the Flat, Luker’s Tipple has shown plenty of ability in the same number of outings over hurdles, beaten only by a really good prospect on hurdling debut in a large field at Punchestown then running to a similar level of form and again well clear of the rest when filling the same position behind a heavily-backed one of J. P. McManus’ in another maiden at Cork. The greater emphasis on speed of this race should suit the Flat-bred Luker’s Tipple and he appeals as the likeliest to take advantage if the favourite doesn’t come up to expectations on British debut.

2.17 1 pt – 7 Afadil

It’s very easy making a case for the 2024 winner Afadil, now 4 lb lower than twelve months ago and well treated on a few other pieces of form from last season, too. He’s been some way from his best in four outings since the autumn but it’ll hardly be surprising if this has been the plan for a while and, if he does bounce back, he’ll surely be hard to stop from this mark. At first glance, his price on Friday afternoon could be seen as off-putting, but he was no shorter when winning a similar-strength renewal last year and, in truth, very few of the opposition are crying out to be backed, either.

2.50 1 pt – 3 Marble Sands

A first prize of just over £50,000 has attracted another good-quality field for the second renewal of the Scottish Champion Chase over a longer trip, plenty of whom tend to either force things or be ridden prominently. This should ensure a strong pace and bring out the best in Marble Sands. He’s proved himself as good as ever this season, winning the Colin Parker at Carlisle on his reappearance then placed in a couple of valuable handicaps at Newcastle and Cheltenham since. He was beaten fair and square in both of those races, but at the same time if he’s in the same form here it’s hard to see why he won’t be thereabouts, his usual run style well suited to a good gallop at around this trip and a win over C&D at this meeting last season highlighting his effectiveness at the track.

Leopardstown

3.30 No Bet Advised

Two defeats apiece in the John Durkan Gold Cup and Punchestown Gold Cup tell us that Galopin des Champs is beatable from time to time, but that’s not proved to be the case at Leopardstown so far, a perfect 6 from 6 over fences at the track and utterly dominant when defeating the free-going Fact To File by 7½ lengths in the latest renewal of the Savills Chase there at Christmas. It’s possible Mark Walsh will be more positive on Fact To File this time instead of fighting him, but it’s still hard to see him getting his revenge of Galopin des Champs at this trip, under these conditions, at this stage of the season, the race sure to make for compulsive viewing without needing to have a bet at the available prices.

You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website.

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