The Timeform Jury team pick out the best bets for the ITV racing at York on Thursday.
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York
1.50 - 0.5 pt – 8 Time For Sandals
This doesn’t look a vintage Lowther, but then it’s not actually a race that has taken a whole lot of winning in recent seasons. Heavens Gate tops the Timeform ratings in receipt of 3 lb from the Queen Mary winner Leovanni, and both have form that puts them at the lower end of the recent standards, but it’s not inconceivable that something might improve past them. Admittedly, there isn’t a blindingly obvious candidate, but Time For Sandals does have something going for her at double-figure odds. She was impressive when making a winning debut at Kempton in June in a race that’s worked out well then ran a cracker when a close third in the Super Sprint at Newbury, when finishing off strongly from right out the back. She’s sure to benefit from this return to six furlongs judged on that and looks open to more improvement than most.
2.25 - 1 pt – 20 Maw Lam
The usual big field for this sales race but there’s plenty it’s easy to put a line through. Indeed, none of the last five winners has gone off any bigger than 4/1, and focussing on the top end of the betting looks a sensible ploy once again, with Timeform ratings strongly pointing the way towards Maw Lam. The negative to her chance is that she seems to have an ingrained habit of missing the break, but at least this will be strongly run, and it hasn’t stopped her reaching a borderline useful level of form. Indeed, there’s a good argument that a reproduction of any of her last three efforts – third in the Queen Mary, fifth in the Duchess of Cambridge on her only run at six furlongs, and a close third in a listed race at Deauville – might be enough to win this.
3.00 – 1 pt ew – 2 Holloway Boy
Elnajmm looked a pattern-class performer in the making when running away with an Ascot handicap back on turf at the end of last month, taking his winning sequence to three for a yard very much at home saddling big handicap winners at York. His price factors in that upside, however, even before bringing in the negative of a draw in seventeen, which will mean he’ll have to be ridden to weave his way through from rear or else use energy trying to get across from out wide. Each-way alternatives are ten a penny but none make as much appeal as Holloway Boy, remarkably still winless since opening his career by landing a Chesham at Royal Ascot but established a couple of years on as a rock-solid handicapper around a mile. A reproduction of any of his last three efforts in defeat – fifth in a Hunt Cup, splitting Cicero’s Gift and Perotto at Sandown and a strong-travelling third in another big-field event at Goodwood – will make it very hard for a handful to beat him as fits the enhanced place terms across the board, and a potentially advantageous draw in the lowest stall could be the extra that’s required to see him end his losing run.
3.35 – No bet advised
The fact that Emily Upjohn started at 7/4 to beat Opera Singer et al in the Nassau yet is more than twice the price to land this lesser Group 1 is the most tempting value angle in this year’s Yorkshire Oaks but the prospect of the form standout fluffing her lines again makes recommending her as a bet too much of a stretch, as even though things went wrong for her at Goodwood she didn’t make much of an impression when asked to close after all. Suffice to say, though, that the middle-distance form among the three-year-old fillies isn’t outstanding and the admittedly very solid Queen of The Pride does have a step up in grade to contend with.
4.10 - 1 pt – 10 Noisy Jazz
Satin is the form pick for this listed race judged on her good handicap form last backend and maybe it’s best to put a line through her reappearance last of four in a muddling race just eight days ago, especially as she’s got cheekpieces back on and Ryan Moore up. It’s tempting to side with her at the prices, but there’s a bit of potential among the handful of three-year-olds in the field, and it’s worth chancing the once-raced Noisy Jazz. There was no money for her prior to her debut over a mile at Newmarket at the start of the month, but she created a fine impression in running out a five-length winner, and both the second and third have done their bit for the form since. The most notable aspect of Noisy Jazz’s performance that day was her strength at the finish, which comes as no surprise considering she’s a Ulysses half-sister to the 2017 Gold Cup winner Big Orange. With that in mind, this four-furlong hike in trip looks a major positive, and she could well be open to the kind of significant progress that’ll be required to land a listed race second time out.
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