The Timeform Jury team pick out the best bets for the ITV racing at Goodwood.
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Goodwood
1.50 0.5 pt ew – 17 Stay Well
Even in an 18-runner field Enfjaar stands out as a progressive type who’s probably destined for pattern company. His John Smith’s Cup win was a tremendous effort, backed up the timefigure, and a 6 lb rise needn’t stop him following up, but he is a shortish price at the top of the betting, and winning in a big field at Goodwood does typically require a slice of luck. A bigger-priced each-way selection therefore looks a good way to tackle the race (bookmakers are paying on five or even six places) and Stay Well does look the type to be suited by this test. He has form with Enfjaar, having finished second to him at Chelmsford when last seen in June, and gets an 11-lb pull at the weights now. Obviously, he’s nothing like so progressive as that rival – indeed, he’s getting on for three years without a win – but he’s certainly capable from this mark on his day and a strongly-run race in a big field around an idiosyncratic track does strike as the sort of scenario that could energise a slightly quirky customer.
2.25 0.5 pt – 3 Arabian Sun
This isn’t a strong Vintage Stakes on paper considering those that have tried pattern company already have come up short in ordinary editions of the Coventry, July Stakes and Robert Papin, so it may be worth focusing instead on the up-in-grade runners. The Parthenon is the obvious one, but he’s predictably found his way to the top of the betting, and there are also cases to make for the three biggest-priced runners, Wolf of Badenoch, Tiger Mask and Arabian Sun, with marginal preference for the last-named. He shaped well when second at this track on his debut in May and wasn’t all out when going one better at Salisbury last month. That form looks solid, with the runner-up and fourth both successful since, and as a son of Saxon Warrior, Arabian Sun promises to be better still over this trip, with a seven-week break since Salisbury suggesting that Clive Cox has had this race in mind ever since.
3.00 1pt ew – 8 Chicago Critic
Kinross has been within a neck of landing the Lennox Stakes in the previous three years and it’s easy to forgive him a below-form effort in the July Cup just over a fortnight ago, the emphasis more on speed than ideal at six furlongs. This test will be much more up his street, especially with the likelihood of a good pace to aim at, but it is a bit concerning that he’s twice been edged out after the looking likely winner in recent starts. Noble Dynasty, Tiber Flow and the fast-improving English Oak all have similar chances on form and it’s hard to knock their claims, but whether any of the trio are necessarily overpriced on Monday afternoon is another matter. A case can be made, however, for suggesting that Chicago Critic is bigger than he should be to make the places in a field with exactly eight runners. The sole three-year-old in the field, Chicago Critic has been massively improved since getting away from the mud on his last two starts, beaten only around a length when third of 19 in the Jersey Stakes on the latest. Admittedly, even a strict reproduction of that form leaves Chicago Critic with a bit more to find in this company, but he’s a strong-travelling colt who seems likely to be suited by the way this should develop and probably still has unfinished business at seven furlongs on a sound surface.
3.35 No Bet Advised
It maybe wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if Kyprios wasn’t in the same form as when gaining his second Gold Cup in the last three years last month, but then again he won’t need to be to confirm superiority over a bunch of stayers that, in truth, aren’t in his league when he’s on his game. The lightly-raced Gregory would may be worth backing to be best of the rest given he remains unexposed at distances of two miles and beyond, but he was so disappointing at Royal Ascot that we’d want bigger odds than are available with the few firms offering prices in the ‘betting without’ market on Monday afternoon.
You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website
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