Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips for Saturday

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Ascot

1.45 0.5 pt ew – 16 Lethal Nymph14/1

Probably not a race in which to get too invested, but Lethal Nymph appeals as being slightly overpriced on Friday afternoon. Yes, he hasn’t won for getting on for two years, but his last wins came in a pair of handicaps at this track at the end of a progressive three-year-old campaign that saw him rated 96 with the BHA. He didn’t manage to win last year (though was second twice) and is now with Paul Midgley and has found his level in the low-mid 80s, placed on three of his last four starts, including in a competitive race at the Curragh last time. His stable is among the winners, he’s got a claimer back on board, is back at Ascot from what looks a decent draw, all of which is enough to think he’s worth a small bet each-way.

2.20 No Bet Advised

Sonny Liston has the best form in the Summer Mile but there’s slight doubt as to whether he’ll be able to fully translate it from handicaps to pattern company, around a bend rather than on a straight track too, while Quddwah’s defeat of Docklands here in the Paradise looks none too shabby a piece of form and he’s still got a fair bit of potential after just three starts. Given all that, the market seems to have got this right and this is a race we’re happy to sit out from a betting perspective on such a hectic day.

York

2.00 1 pt – 8 Blue For You 6/1

The lightly-raced pair Elnajmm and Telemark both look big players in this 1m handicap, and it’s understandable that they’re at the top of the market. However, from a handicapping perspective it really is hard to decry the claims of Blue For You, who lines up here from a mark 4 lb lower than when readily winning this race last year. He’d also won a big C&D handicap at the Ebor meeting in 2022 and had suggested he retains all his ability when fourth here (following a breathing operation) on his reappearance at the Dante meeting. Admittedly his two runs since haven't been as good, but he was trapped wide from the outside stall at Epsom and his last run came in the Royal Hunt Cup at a track at which he doesn’t have a great record. This is the track at which he goes best, he mightn’t want it to get too testing but ground on the easy side of good is fine, a highish draw could well prove an advantage and everything looks in favour for another big run.

2.35 1 pt – 7 Starlust 9/4

Clarendon House is a sprinter at the top of his game, but what he did at the start of the Dash – seemingly having a major think about leaving the stalls – in between his ready wins in handicap company here and at listed level at Cork makes us slightly hesitant about him at a shortish price. Starlust is a similar price, and he could only finish mid-division in the Commonwealth Cup last time, but his previous run, when well on top of an older field of handicappers, four of whom have won on their next outing, over this C&D would give him a very solid chance. Indeed, he’s unexposed at 5f, his only previous start at the trip coming when finishing a fine third to Big Evs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, while the form of his second in a Goodwood nursery on his only run on ground softer than good suggests the ground won’t be an issue, a berth next to likely front runner Democracy Dilemma another positive.

3.10 1 pt ew – 10 Epic Poet 8/1 & 0.5 pt ew – 13 Box To Box 20/1

A fiercely-competitive edition of the John Smith’s Cup, as you’d expect for the money on offer. Finding the winner certainly doesn’t look easy, but that doesn’t mean you should stray from traditional methods to try to do so, and Epic Poet does have an obvious chance from a handicapping perspective given he’s 3 lb well-in for his very good Royal Ascot run. Coming from a long way back in the Duke Of Edinburgh, he finished strongly to take second near the finish, worth marking up a shade in our book, too, given the gallop was a fair bit slower than the King Edward VII Stakes later on the card. The handicapper understandably put him up 3 lb for that, but he can race off the same mark in this early-closing contest, he’d previously shown plenty of encouragement when sixth over this C&D at the Dante meeting on his stable debut, and while he obviously stays 1½m well, easy ground should bring his stamina firmly into play.

We want to have Box To Box on side too. He’s also slightly well-in (1 lb), and while his last four wins have come at Chester, he’s not dependent on that course to run well, his second to Spirit Dancer over this C&D a little under a year ago reading very well in light of that one’s subsequent exploits. He ran very well last time, close to a strong gallop and picked off only late having led over 3f out, reminding that he’s fully effective on soft ground, and although this is a big field there might not be loads of pace so a prominent position might not necessarily be a disadvantage.

3.45 - 1 pt - 6 Salt Bay 7/2

A head-to-head over the same C&D only recently saw Klondike just about thwart Salt Bay on the same terms, suggesting on the face of it there’ll be little between them again. But the presence of Al Qareem is likely to ensure there’s no easy lead on the cards for Klondike, which can aid no end the dour-galloping Salt Bay, who has been anything but prolific in his career so far but stays well and was knuckling down just fine by the time the line closed in here that day. Cut in the ground and a test of stamina are what seem to bring the best out of Salt Bay and both are likely here, and form such as his close third in the John Porter when conditions weren’t quite so in his favour give him leading claims as well.

Newmarket

2.12 0.5 pt – 1 Asian Daze14/1

It’s only three weeks or so ago that Asian Daze signed off for Johnny Murtagh but her claims in this tricky handicap are based as much on what she’s already done as what she may do for a change of stables. Granted, others look more progressive – Lou Lou’s Gift and Miss Bodacious jump out on that score – but this is the highest-quality race they’ve contested whereas Asian Daze has been a fixture in high-level fillies' handicaps, and also finished runner-up at listed level, in four outings this year, most recently beating 20 out of 29 rivals in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot, despite having had to wait for room two furlongs from home. Reopposing Arisaig was a place ahead on the wrong part of the track that day but isn’t guaranteed to be so effective at this track ridden as she is and is also half the price.

2.50 1 pt – 6 Volterra 5/1

King of Conquest’s Wood Ditton defeat of Lead Artist is arguably the most tempting piece of form in the race, but the pair haven’t taken the same trajectory since and it’s instead Volterra who makes appeal as the most progressive in this field, despite the bare result of the Britannia perhaps not catching the eye right away. In short, Volterra was much better than the bare result in that red-hot handicap, not only ending up in the disadvantaged group but ridden too prominently in it, with the ten ahead of him at the line all on the other side as he toughed it out well enough on the wrong part of the track to emerge best of the unfavoured party. Volterra started at 13/2 for the Britannia, having run out a decisive winner on the Rowley Mile when a strong favourite for his handicap debut first time out, and a more reserved ride on a less demanding track – in a field size unlikely to lend itself to a split and potential track bias – can see him get right back on the up.

3.25 – No bet advised

There are other less flattering ‘superlatives’ that could be used to describe the hectic scheduling that is ‘Super' Saturday and the Superlative Stakes itself looks one race to draw breath amidst the volley of competitive handicaps and pattern races on the day. Seven of the nine boast a Timeform ‘p’, three of them have unblemished records, and none has yet run to a level within shouting distance of what’s normally required to win this race, placing the emphasis too much on unknowns to make anything bet-inducing.

4.00 1 pt – 18 Aalto 10/1

It isn’t hard to work out why Carrytheone is favourite, given he was such a big-eyecatcher in the Buckingham Palace and can run here off the same mark, but at the same time, that does highlight how he’s a horse that does need things to go his way, and even though he has the assistance of Ryan Moore, his general odds of 7/2 make little appeal in a race like this. He takes on many of the usual suspects for a race like this, six of them behind him at Royal Ascot and it’s one from a different route that makes most appeal. Aalto hasn’t been with the Ian Williams stable long, but he’s been shaping well this year, going close in several well-contested handicaps. On his most recent start he was beaten just half a length off this mark at Haydock and that run can be upgraded given he raced much closer to the strong pace than the only one who could get by him. Rossa Ryan up for the first time looks a positive, a well-run 7f will play to his strengths and he’s drawn next to the likely front-runner Percy’s Lad.

4.35 1 pt 9 – Inisherin 11/4

The older sprinters have been something of motley crew for several seasons now so it’s not a big surprise that three-year-olds find themselves towards the head of the market for the July Cup, a race they’ve more than held their own in over the last decade with the honours split at five wins apiece between them and the older generations. Unsurprisingly, the Commonwealth Cup has been the key trial and Inisherin is expected to follow up his win at Royal Ascot here. He’s proven a revelation since dropped to sprint trips and in the Sandy Lane he lowered the colours of Vandeek, who reopposes now after a less than ideal preparation, and backed up that effort under a different set of circumstances at Ascot. He’s most straightforward and uncomplicated and won’t have any issues whatever the conditions, something that cannot necessarily be said about several of his rivals. If he turns up here and produces what he did on his last two starts, he’s going to be very difficult to beat.

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