The Timeform Jury team pick out the best bets for the ITV racing at Goodwood on Wednesday.
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Goodwood
1.50 1 pt – 7 French Duke
This is nearly always a good-quality and informative three-year-old handicap, the latest renewal no different in that several of the twelve-strong field surely haven’t shown all they can as yet. Subsequent is one of those, though judged on the way he scored at Salisbury last time out it seems likely that distances in excess of a mile and a half will be needed for him to show everything he can, the Melrose next month arguably a better fit than this. As such, we’d rather be with French Duke, who tanked into the King George handicap at Royal Ascot on his most recent start before ending up sixth behind Going The Distance. French Duke took a strong hold that day and it compromised his finishing effort to some extent but not before he’d shaped as though ahead of his mark, a hood on here to try and make him more amenable to restraint through the early stages and the likelihood of a good pace sure to help in that regard, too.
2.25 1 pt – 8 Kathmandu
There isn’t much obvious pace in this despite the double-figure field and Kathmandu, who’s perhaps the likeliest early leader and has a favourable draw to match, surely has plenty in her favour. She’s got some of the best form to her name too, courtesy of a fine front-running second in the Pouliches back in May, and there wasn’t much wrong with her recent fifth up against the colts in the Prix Jean Prat at Deauville earlier this month. She’ll find life easier down in grade and back against her own sex, and a performance of similar merit should see her hard to catch for a trainer in Brian Meehan who, while hardly a prolific source of winners these days, had a couple of winners at Royal Ascot and has generally punched above his weight in good races this year.
3.00 0.5 pt ew – 12 The Man
Sixteen runners means this is the biggest field for the Molecomb in years. Aesterius looks pretty solid at the top of the betting following a good listed win at Sandown last time, but the each-way terms are sufficiently generous to tackle the race that way (most bookmakers are paying out on four places and Skybet are offering five). The Man has almost as much as any to find on form but there are reasons for thinking he could still be capable of a fair bit better. He was a comfortable winner first time out at Southwell back in April, and while he only beat one home in the Norfolk on his only outing since, a review of that race suggests that he ran a fair bit better than his finishing position. Indeed, having raced freely under Hollie Doyle, he made quite a taking mid-race move that took him to the front of the stand-side group around halfway before paying for his exertions late. It’s fair to conclude he can do better if expending his energy more efficiently, and this could be the perfect scenario for him to do that, with Jamie Spencer highly likely to anchor The Man out the back in a race that’s sure to be very strongly run.
3.35 1 pt – 5 Notable Speech
The defection of Rosallion due to a respiratory infection has taken a lot away from the Sussex Stakes, though instead of it being a ‘No Bet’ race it does now give us a chance to back Notable Speech to show his St James’s Palace running to be all wrong. He’d looked a miler out of the top drawer when defeating Rosallion by a length and a half in the Guineas but, for whatever reason, was in nothing like the same form at Royal Ascot. Charlie Appleby has had six weeks to get him back to concert pitch and, in what seems sure to be a tactical affair, Notable Speech’s sharp turn of foot should be a potent weapon.
You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website
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