The Timeform Jury team pick out the best bets for the ITV racing at Newmarket and York on Friday.
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Newmarket
1.50 1 pt – 5 Rebaatt 6/1
A very tightly-knit bunch on adjusted ratings for this good 3-y-o handicap, and finding the winner looks even more tricky on account of the possibility that there isn’t a huge amount of pace in the race. On that front, it’s encouraging that Rebaatt has already proven himself in a particularly steadily-run race over C&D, having to pass all of his five rivals in a tactical affair last time, while being carried left late on as well. That came under a penalty for a really impressive win at Chester a week earlier, he’s a horse going forward nicely, and although a new mark of 92 demands more, he certainly looks open to further progress.
2.25 1 pt – 4 Fiery Lucy 14/1
An early clash of the form of the two fillies-only juvenile races at Royal Ascot with the Albany represented by the third and the fourth, Heavens Gate and Mountain Breeze, while Mighty Eriu and Maw Lam represent the Queen Mary, in which they finished second and third. Heavens Gate’s Ascot effort definitely sets the standard in our book, but with her price contracting on Thursday afternoon we’re going to look elsewhere, with Fiery Lucy making a fair bit of appeal at much bigger odds. For starters, it’s interesting that Gavin Cromwell is sending her over for this given he has Mighty Eriu in the race. She’s shown a good level of form on both her starts, and her ready win over Lethimfly at Fairyhouse last time received a boost when the runner-up showed improved form in readily landing a maiden at Bellewstown last week. Her form doesn’t look that far behind some of those who ran very well at Ascot, and she looks capable of taking it up further now that she has the opportunity to do so.
3.00 1 pt – 5 Fairbanks 9/2
It’s possible to argue that this is a slightly disappointing turnout for a valuable contest – just two of these wouldn’t get in a 0-95 – and while a few of them are stepping down in trip, we’re more interested in the angle of Fairbanks going up in distance. Very progressive in a truncated 3-y-o campaign, he quickly regained the progressive thread this year, scoring comfortably at Newcastle before finishing a good second over 13f at Hamilton. He followed that with another solid effort in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot last time in much the most competitive race he’s run in to date, the way he plugged away suggesting he’d be suited by this sort of trip – indeed, he could well find further progress for it, and he mightn’t need to find much at all from the same mark.
3.35 No Bet Advised
Porta Fortuna’s win in the Coronation Stakes represents just about the best form on offer in the Falmouth, narrowly better on our ratings than Running Lion’s win in Group 2 company a couple of days earlier, and with an advantageous weight-for-age allowance to boot. That said, it’s not cut-and-dried enough to warrant a wager at no better than 6/4 in our opinion, how well the two fillies have taken their Ascot wins likely to be a big factor in determining the outcome of this, and with other players in the race, too, we’re happy to sit this one out.
York
2.05 1 pt – 13 Billyb 7/1
Billyb has done better with each start to date for his current yard and looks to hold the strongest claims in an open race. He shaped promisingly over C&D on his stable debut before landing a gamble at Beverley next time and found only Orbaan (who had dropped to a career-low mark) too good in a typically competitive renewal of the Carlisle Bell last time. He was clear of the rest that day and 3 lb rise looks lenient enough with him still looking on a good mark on his best form.
2.40 1 pt – 5 Unequal Love 5/2
Hard to look beyond Unequal Love in this contest and though she’s already favourite, it’s arguable that she should be a little shorter given the strength of her form. She beat one of today’s rivals in listed company on her reappearance and has looked even better since not seen to best effect in a Group 2 in Ireland next time before winning a typically competitive Wokingham handicap at Royal Ascot last time. That form would have been good enough to win each of the last five runnings of this contest and this looks a good stepping stone for her before reverting back to stronger company.
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