Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips for Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon on Saturday

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Newbury

1.50 No Bet Advised

The Geoffrey Freer has been a profitable race for short-priced backers in recent times, short ones having got the job done in the last three years. A quick glance at the favourite this time round, however, will quickly reveal that Al Aasy isn’t the type to be backing with impunity at skinny odds. He was turned over twice in succession at odds on as a 4-y-o and, whilst he’s picked up almost £400,000 in prize money during a now lengthy career, a tendency to occasionally shirk the issue when the chips are down means it’s not hard to leave him alone at odds on. That doesn’t mean we need to be taking him on, however, especially as his two main rivals on form Al Qareem and Sumo Sam are both habitual front runners who could end up harming each other’s chance up front, the latter unlikely to benefit from drying underfoot conditions to boot.  

2.25 1 pt – 7 Kuwait City

The Big Board is probably the one to beat considering she had plenty of good efforts from higher marks last year and bounced back to form when a close second to a subsequent winner at Ascot last time, but it’s difficult to argue she’s overpriced at the current odds. One to whom that statement might apply though, is Kuwait City, who’s probably in better heart that his recent form figures suggest. He hasn’t been well placed on either of his last two outings but did manage to quicken into contention briefly at this track on the penultimate one, and just had no chance from his position at York last time. Both those efforts were over six furlongs, but a well-run five suits (this promises to be run at a good gallop) and he’s now 2 lb below the mark he defied at Yarmouth on his reappearance in April.

3.00 0.5 pt ew – 7 Accidental Agent

Backing a 10-y-o returning from ten months off won’t appeal to everyone, but there are reasons for believing that it’s worth chancing Accidental Agent at long odds. He’s not the force of old (won Queen Anne way back in 2018) and has been anything but prolific since that career high, but his record when fresh is very hard to fault and the handicapper has undoubtedly taken a chance with him, dropped 5 lb since his final outing last season and now 9 lb lower than when beaten less than three lengths into fifth in the Bunbury Cup last summer. Obviously, there’s a chance that age could be properly catching up with him by now, but at the same time a quick glance at his career record tells us his record after absences is good and, with Mia Nicholls taking another 5 lb off, his price is big enough on Friday afternoon to justify supporting him to small stakes to at least reach the frame.

3.35 No Bet Advised

The Hungerford looks an extremely muddling race in the making, with none of the seven-strong field having a recent history of making the running. Whichever one does go forward will surely at an advantage, but figuring out which one that might is largely guesswork, and that makes for a race that’s best passed over for betting purposes.

Ripon

2.45 0.5 pt ew – 2 Grant Wood

This consolation race isn’t especially valuable and the field is nothing out of the ordinary for a northern 0-85 sprint handicap. It’s worth splitting stakes on a couple from towards the top of the handicap who’ll likely race on different sides of the track, with Grant Wood first on the teamsheet. He’s won three times already this season and has looked a bit better than the result on his last two outings, not having a hard race back from a month off when mid-field at Haydock on the most recent one. That should put him spot for this and he surely remains on a fair mark, with a bit more progress not out of the question considering the way his form has gone this year. It’s also worth siding with Maxi Boy, who has a terrible strike rate but has no worse a form chance than the market leader Ray Vonn judged on his close second to that rival at York two starts back. He was poorly positioned when down the field at Hamilton earlier this week and looks too big a price now, with cheekpieces back on and stall 1 not necessarily a bad thing should the race develop on the far side.

3.20 1 pt ew – Radio Goo Goo

Front runners have long since held a tactical advantage at Ripon, be it on the round course or sprint course, but it’s still a staggering statistic that seven of the last eight Great St Wilfrid winners have made all or just about all in what is almost always a highly competitive sprint handicap. As such, it’s with little hesitation that the front running Radio Goo Goo is suggested for this renewal, especially as surprisingly few of the field are noted for pace forcing. It’s hard to make a case for Radio Goo Goo being notably well treated, put in her place by the reopposing Manila Scouse at Chepstow on her most recent outing, but at the same time she rarely fails to run some sort of race and it’s very hard to knock her record at the type of track that suits prominent-racers, successful here and at Chester already this season, and hailing from a yard that’s been going better over the last three weeks than at any other time so far this year.  

Newmarket

2.05 1 pt – 1 First Folio

This is anything but a vintage renewal of the Grey Horse Handicap and it’s worth siding with top weight First Folio to stamp his relative quality on proceedings for a trainer in Julie Camacho enjoying her best spell of form of the year. First Folio is far from a frequent winner – it’s nearly two years since his last one – but he has come down a long way in the weights and there’s been more encouragement in in-frame finishes on his last two outings, his latest third at Hamilton coming in a race that was significantly stronger than this one.  He’s dropped another 1 lb since and his class edge is obvious in a handicap in which all but one of his rivals are running off marks in the 70s.You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website

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