Cheltenham Festival: Colin Tizzard big chances
Adam Houghton of Timeform looks at Colin Tizzard's three best chances of tasting Cheltenaham Festival glory this year.
The Big Breakaway (Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase)
The Big Breakaway has already reached a smart level in only three outings over fences, but it’s probably fair to say that he hasn’t quite met the high expectations that many people had for him at the start of the campaign. That includes his own connections, who have never made any secret of the regard in which he is held and were justified to some extent by the abundant promise he showed in three starts as a novice hurdler. A wide-margin victory on his chasing debut at Cheltenham’s November Meeting also did nothing to diminish the view that The Big Breakaway was destined for the top of the novice chasing ranks this season.
Defeats on his last two appearances over fences may have caused some of his supporters to lose faith, but The Big Breakaway almost certainly wasn’t seen to best effect on either occasion. He was turned over at 9/2-on at Exeter in early-December but emerged with his potential intact given how that race developed (too much of an emphasis on speed), while he probably would have given Shan Blue even more to think about in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day if he had been a bit more fluent over the final three fences, doing well under the circumstances to be beaten only three and three quarter lengths.
It’s also worth putting those efforts into the context of the torrid season that Colin Tizzard is enduring, underlined by the fact he is operating at just an 8% strike rate since the start of September. Tizzard saddled only six winners from 101 runners across December and January, down from 19 winners for the same two months in 2018/19 and 20 winners in 2019/20.
In some ways The Big Breakaway deserves credit for still performing as well as he did at a time when his yard was so badly out of sorts. He remains open to more improvement over fences if brushing up on his jumping, with a stiffer test and slower tempo in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham both likely to help in that respect. It will certainly be no surprise if he emerges from the pack to throw down the biggest challenge to odds-on favourite Monkfish.
Eldorado Allen (Grand Annual)
Eldorado Allen made a bright start to life over fences, following up his debut success at Newton Abbot with a 19-length victory in the November Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. Admittedly, it’s open to debate whether he’d have kept his unbeaten record intact if Gumball hadn’t fallen at the second last in that Grade 2, but there was still plenty to like about the way Eldorado Allen jumped and generally went about things, so much so that he was then sent off just 3/1 for the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown the following month.
In the event, however, Eldorado Allen had his limitations rather exposed on his first try in Grade 1 company at Sandown, finishing only fourth of the five runners, nearly 15 lengths behind Allmankind, while it was a similar story when he was comfortably put in his place by Shishkin – the odds-on favourite for the Sporting Life Arkle – in the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster last time.
His connections have since abandoned any plans for a rematch with that rival at Cheltenham and understandably so, opting to bypass another Grade 1 assignment in favour of a handicap option at the Festival, specifically the Grand Annual. Tizzard will be seeking a second win in the race having struck with Oiseau de Nuit in 2011, though there is a difference this year in that the race will be staged on the Old Course for the first time having been moved to the second day of the meeting.
That is unlikely to inconvenience Eldorado Allen given that it was this course and distance he won over in November, but a BHA mark of 149 might prove a bigger hindrance on his handicap debut over fences. Indeed, it’s hard to argue that he’s obviously well treated judged on what he’s achieved in this sphere to date, so his connections will be hoping that a strongly-run race in a big-field handicap environment can provide the catalyst for a much-improved performance.
Native River (Gold Cup)
Native River has been a terrific servant to the Tizzard yard over the years, proving himself a top-class staying chaser with no fewer than 11 wins over fences, including the Hennessy Gold Cup and Welsh Grand National, both in 2016, and the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2018. Admittedly, a lot of water has passed under the bridge since his Gold Cup victory and he was denied the chance to try and regain his crown last year due to injury, but his latest win in the rescheduled Cotswold Chase at Sandown in early-February demonstrated that he still retains the ability to be a major force in 2021.
Just when Tizzard needed a lift after drawing a blank in January, the popular Native River produced a performance at Sandown that had even those not associated with the yard shouting at the TV. The race was run at a sound gallop on heavy going and provided a proper test of jumping and stamina, both areas in which Native River has always excelled. Clearly relishing the conditions, he stayed on strongly from the back of the last and was well on top at the finish, ultimately winning by nine and a half lengths from Bristol de Mai and Santini.
It was a performance that encapsulated everything good about National Hunt racing, whilst also proving that Native River is still as good as ever. For context, he achieved a Timeform rating of 170 for his success in the Cotswold Chase, running to the same level as when getting the better of that memorable dual with Might Bite at Cheltenham nearly three years ago.
Trends followers will undoubtedly be against Native River as he attempts to repeat those heroics in 2021. After all, Kauto Star (2007 and 2009) remains the only horse ever to regain the Gold Cup, while no horse aged 11 or above has won the race since the 12-year-old What A Myth in 1969. In pure form terms, however, Native River looks to have as good a chance as any – especially granted testing conditions – with Al Boum Photo being the only horse in the race with a higher Timeform rating.
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