Timeform ratings analysis | Karl Burke's two-year-old fillies
By Tony McFadden
14:56 · MON March 27, 2023
Tony McFadden uses Timeform ratings to highlight Karl Burke's remarkable exploits with his two-year-old fillies this season.
A notable feature of the 2022 Flat season has been the success Karl Burke has enjoyed with his two-year-old fillies.
Six of the 11 individual two-year-old fillies Burke has run this season have won a race - some feat in its own right - but what is more impressive is that he is responsible for the top three in the division based on Timeform's ratings.
With four weeks to go until Royal Ascot, the pecking order among the juvenile fillies is headed by Newmarket debut winner Dramatised (101p), while Marygate Stakes one-two Pillow Talk (100p) and Yahsat (99) are close up behind.
Dramatised created a huge impression on her debut, racing with enthusiasm at the head of affairs before readily quickening clear, beating a subsequent winner, Malrescia, by four lengths.
Access to exclusive features all for FREE - No monthly subscription fee
Log in with your existing Sporting Life, Sky Bet, or Sky Games account. If you don't have any of those, it's completely FREE to register!
The exceptional time left little doubt about the merit of the performance as only once in the last five seasons - when Natalie's Joy scored at Goodwood in May 2018 - has a juvenile filly clocked a higher timefigure on debut than Dramatised.
Dramatised looked an ideal candidate for the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and she is already near the standard typically required to win that event - the median Timeform rating of the Queen Mary winner in the last ten years has been 106.5.
She carries the colours of Steve Parkin's Clipper Logistics, as does Pillow Talk, who ran to a similar level when edging out stablemate Yahsat at York.
Pillow Talk had finished runner-up on debut at Nottingham, where she was disadvantaged by making her effort away from the winner and the third, but she took a big step forward at York, impressing with how well she stuck to her task to wear down Yahsat, a five-length winner on her previous start.
Access to exclusive features all for FREE - No monthly subscription fee
Log in with your existing Sporting Life, Sky Bet, or Sky Games account. If you don't have any of those, it's completely FREE to register!
The pair pulled two and three-quarter lengths clear of the third at York - in another race that was run in a good time - and it has been rated as the best edition of the Marygate since Patience Alexander and Tiggy Wiggy (who were both subsequently placed at Royal Ascot) fought out the finish in 2014.
Burke and Parkin will need to decide how to play their cards at Royal Ascot, but they might just be holding on to a couple of aces.
Timeform's highest-rated two-year-old fillies
101p Dramatised (Karl Burke)
100p Pillow Talk (Karl Burke)
99 Yahsat (Karl Burke)
98p Katey Kontent (Clive Cox)
97p Meditate (Aidan O'Brien)
The trainers to follow with two-year-olds
Timeform's top-rated 2yos as of 17/05/2022
For all Burke has done superbly with his two-year-old fillies this season, sending out more winners with such types than any other yard, a modest level-stake profit of £2.69 shows they have often been well found in the market. Including his colts, who have contributed one win to the tally, backing all of Burke's juveniles blind would have resulted in a small level-stake loss of £2.11.
Looking at trainers who this season have had a minimum of ten two-year-old runners - male or female - the most profitable to follow would have been David Loughnane. He has had five winners from 18 runners at an impressive strike-rate of 28%, generating a level-stake profit of £17.50.
Richard Hannon has had more juvenile runners than any yard (37) but has had seven winners, resulting in a healthy level-stake profit of £14.94.
Perhaps ominously for everyone else, Aidan O'Brien has been operating at a remarkable 59% strike rate with his two-year-olds, sending out ten winners from 17 runners for a level-stake profit of £6.69. His team includes the colt Little Big Bear, whose rating of 106p is the highest achieved by a juvenile this season.
Alice Haynes is showing only a small level-stake profit (£0.25) but three winners from 11 runners results in a healthy strike-rate of 27%, and having attracted the support of the big-spending Amo Racing this burgeoning yard could be one to follow.
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCareon 0808 8020 133.
We are committed to Safer Gambling and have a number of self-help tools to help you manage your gambling. We also work with a number of independent charitable organisations who can offer help and answers any questions you may have.
